underdogs in the nba playoffs

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  • gojetsgomoxies
    SBR MVP
    • 09-04-12
    • 4222

    #1
    underdogs in the nba playoffs
    inspired by that thread on nba playoffs and rest, i thought i'd do a little analysis myself.

    since 2001 (inclusive) and not including this year (only because 2019 doesn't show up in database for some reason), underdogs of more than 6 points have been an ATS loser every single year but one.

    so in 18 years, there's been one winning season backing significant underdogs.

    pretty minor data mining here. i just do 0,3,6,9 point underdogs and playoffs. they all work well. smaller spread gets you far more bets but lesser winning percentage (fading). 9 points = great winning % but not that many games. basically anything works.\

    not sure why database hasn't posted results for this year. i am certain there have been big underdogs this playoff season. not sure big udogs have been terrible this year. clips, spurs are 2 live ud's this year.
  • gojetsgomoxies
    SBR MVP
    • 09-04-12
    • 4222

    #2
    oops, this is 2018 season, so the results are posted.

    6 point UD are 6-17 ATS this year. strip out clips and it's 3-14 ATS.

    categories of udog (ATS)

    0-3 (inclusive) 3-3
    3.5-6: 7-7
    6.5-9: 4-9
    >9: 2-8
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    • gojetsgomoxies
      SBR MVP
      • 09-04-12
      • 4222

      #3
      not going to go into details and this is just for more recent years (limited time to analyze)

      home underdogs are attrocious.... away underdogs = 40-50% ATS win rate. not good but certainly not the basis for a system

      season > 2013 and playoffs = 1 and H and ...
      8 1-7-0 (-9.31, 12.5%) 11.2 7-0-1 (16.25, 100.0%) 208.8 0-8 (-20.50, 0.0%) line > 9
      20 3-17-0 (-7.33, 15.0%) 9.2 15-4-1 (9.20, 78.9%) 212.7 1-19 (-16.55, 5.0%) line > 6
      69 21-47-1 (-3.55, 30.9%) 6.0 35-32-2 (2.18, 52.2%) 208.4 16-53 (-9.55, 23.2%) line > 3
      99 35-62-2 (-1.38, 36.1%) 4.8 47-50-2 (1.46, 48.5%) 207.9 30-69 (-6.18, 30.3%) line > 0
      Showing 1 to 4 of 4 entries
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