spWNBA Line Changes: Notes 6/7

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  • SportsTerminator
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-18-09
    • 5179

    #1
    spWNBA Line Changes: Notes 6/7
    I noticed the bookies changed the lines from this morning after the performances of today's games. It wasn't line movement but a change. I just so happened to have it saved...

    This Morning...

    WNBA - Jun 07

    1:05 PM 651 CONN SUN +3-110 o150-110

    652 NY LIBERTY -3-110 u150-110


    1:05 PM 653 ATL DREAM +3-110 o156½-110

    654 WAS MYSTICS -3-110 u156½-110


    4:05 PM 655 MIN LYNX +8-110 o148-110

    656 IND FEVER -8-110 u148-110


    6:05 PM 657 SAC MONARCHS +7-110 o141-110

    658 SEA STORM -7-110 u141-110

    -----------------------------

    Now...

    WNBA SUNDAY, JUNE 7TH
    1:05 PM 651 CONN SUN +3-110 o149-110

    652 NY LIBERTY -3-110 u149-110


    1:05 PM 653 ATL DREAM +4½-110 o158-110

    654 WAS MYSTICS -4½-110 u158-110


    4:05 PM 655 MIN LYNX +7-110 o149½-110

    656 IND FEVER -7-110 u149½-110


    6:05 PM 657 SAC MONARCHS +8-110 o139½-110

    658 SEA STORM -8-110 u139½-110

    -----------------------

    Based on these changes I expect the following teams to win...

    Seattle Storm (Moneyline it)

    Minnesota Lynx (Take the pointspread)

    Washington Mystics (Moneyline it)

    I was planning on playing on Seattle Storm, so this definately gives me confirmation. But again none of these picks are official. I will post my picks tomorrow if any.
    Bet To Win
  • peeiempee
    SBR MVP
    • 01-21-09
    • 2750

    #2
    Kind of shows you the books don't even know where to put the line at
    Comment
    • SportsTerminator
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-18-09
      • 5179

      #3
      Originally posted by SportsTerminator
      I noticed the bookies changed the lines from this morning after the performances of today's games. It wasn't line movement but a change. I just so happened to have it saved...

      This Morning...

      WNBA - Jun 07

      1:05 PM 651 CONN SUN +3-110 o150-110

      652 NY LIBERTY -3-110 u150-110


      1:05 PM 653 ATL DREAM +3-110 o156½-110

      654 WAS MYSTICS -3-110 u156½-110


      4:05 PM 655 MIN LYNX +8-110 o148-110

      656 IND FEVER -8-110 u148-110


      6:05 PM 657 SAC MONARCHS +7-110 o141-110

      658 SEA STORM -7-110 u141-110

      -----------------------------

      Now...

      WNBA SUNDAY, JUNE 7TH
      1:05 PM 651 CONN SUN +3-110 o149-110

      652 NY LIBERTY -3-110 u149-110


      1:05 PM 653 ATL DREAM +4½-110 o158-110

      654 WAS MYSTICS -4½-110 u158-110


      4:05 PM 655 MIN LYNX +7-110 o149½-110

      656 IND FEVER -7-110 u149½-110


      6:05 PM 657 SAC MONARCHS +8-110 o139½-110

      658 SEA STORM -8-110 u139½-110

      -----------------------

      Based on these changes I expect the following teams to win...

      Seattle Storm (Moneyline it)

      Minnesota Lynx (Take the pointspread)

      Washington Mystics (Moneyline it)

      I was planning on playing on Seattle Storm, so this definately gives me confirmation. But again none of these picks are official. I will post my picks tomorrow if any.
      Wow...

      Seattle Storm... Win

      Minnesota Lynx... Win

      And

      Washington Mystics... Win

      3-0...Wow!
      Bet To Win
      Comment
      • SportsTerminator
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 02-18-09
        • 5179

        #4
        I also caught today's line change

        June 8th

        Los Angeles Sparks vs. Detroit Shocks

        This was an even pick this morning... but now it's at Los Angeles Sparks -4 vs. Detroit Shocks +4

        According to the line change... Los Angeles Sparks win? lol
        Bet To Win
        Comment
        • Psylence
          SBR Sharp
          • 05-14-09
          • 442

          #5
          Originally posted by SportsTerminator
          I also caught today's line change

          June 8th

          Los Angeles Sparks vs. Detroit Shocks

          This was an even pick this morning... but now it's at Los Angeles Sparks -4 vs. Detroit Shocks +4

          According to the line change... Los Angeles Sparks win? lol
          They are just moving the line due to most of public money going on LA, no reverse line movement or anything don't get too excited.
          Comment
          • tbill11
            SBR MVP
            • 03-15-09
            • 1451

            #6
            Wouldn't a line movement at the LVSC like that in the early stage indicate that the smart money is on the Sparks? I'm new to tracking line movement but that's what I was taught to look for.
            Comment
            • suicidekings
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-23-09
              • 9962

              #7
              Originally posted by Psylence
              They are just moving the line due to most of public money going on LA, no reverse line movement or anything don't get too excited.
              A move directly from PK to +/- 4 is unlikely to be market based...
              Comment
              • RoagBettor
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 01-20-09
                • 8355

                #8
                Originally posted by suicidekings
                A move directly from PK to +/- 4 is unlikely to be market based...
                What do you mean? It's all market-based as far as I'm concerned. Most of the public money came in on LA so the books had to do something drastic (4 pts is drastic) to balance it out. They've already taken a beating on the WNBA in the first 2 days I'm sure.
                Comment
                • SexyMit
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 10-12-06
                  • 6139

                  #9
                  Vegas doesn't take beatings on a regular basis! I follow line movements as well, and I have always gone the opposite of the line movement when it peaks. Especially when it is a big line movement of 4 or more points.
                  If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                  I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                  Comment
                  • RoagBettor
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-20-09
                    • 8355

                    #10
                    Mit, I agree. I was going to bet LA tonight then decided to pass on this game. There will be much better plays later in the week.
                    Comment
                    • SexyMit
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 10-12-06
                      • 6139

                      #11
                      Sparks were -5.5 on that game they played the other night. They won that game by 20, and now the 2nd game a few days later and they open it at a pk! Detroit wins out right tonight if you ask me!
                      If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                      I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                      Comment
                      • HoulihansTX
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 02-12-09
                        • 30566

                        #12
                        Originally posted by SexyMit
                        Sparks were -5.5 on that game they played the other night. They won that game by 20, and now the 2nd game a few days later and they open it at a pk! Detroit wins out right tonight if you ask me!
                        Dude are you keeping track of what the state of the teams are though? Detroit is down 3 players who play major minutes, due to suspensions, and injuries. Sparks picked up a couple of all-stars over the off-season to make up for Parkers absence. I dont watch the games, but I read articles and reports. This seems like another blowout waiting to happen.
                        Comment
                        • SexyMit
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 10-12-06
                          • 6139

                          #13
                          Exactly, that is what they want you to think! Remember when Dwight Howard didn't play due to a suspension for elbowing and noone thought they had a chance in game 6 to beat the 76ers and they blew them away! I read also, and LA should have opened up as a bigger fave with them 3 people not playing and they are key players. YOu do what you want but I'm just giving my 2 cents. I have been wrong before and I could be again. But you know my track record as well as most of the NBA guys do! JUst tread lightly is what I'm asking that is all. GL tonight!
                          If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                          I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                          Comment
                          • HoulihansTX
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 02-12-09
                            • 30566

                            #14
                            All valid points SexyMit. I'm not trying to tell you your wrong, more just offering a different perspective. Anyways that Orlando game w/o Dwight was one of those consummate "lets rally together b/c our all-star is out" games. Detroit comes into this game having known that the players were going to be out, and the third player got injured in the 1stQtr of saturdays game. Yo fellow Texan, lets get this money.
                            Comment
                            • tbill11
                              SBR MVP
                              • 03-15-09
                              • 1451

                              #15
                              You also can't deny this: The reason that the line change was so drastic was that during the early period (before the public can even TOUCH the line), the betting syndicates pounded the Sparks until Vegas had to change the line. My move would be to buy the Sparks down to -3 or -2, and take them tonight. Simply based on line movement, that is the correct play.
                              Comment
                              • SexyMit
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 10-12-06
                                • 6139

                                #16
                                Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                All valid points SexyMit. I'm not trying to tell you your wrong, more just offering a different perspective. Anyways that Orlando game w/o Dwight was one of those consummate "lets rally together b/c our all-star is out" games. Detroit comes into this game having known that the players were going to be out, and the third player got injured in the 1stQtr of saturdays game. Yo fellow Texan, lets get this money.
                                If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!

                                I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!
                                Comment
                                • SportsTerminator
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 02-18-09
                                  • 5179

                                  #17
                                  Well this line change system is 3-1. But I don't think the bookies are going to put out any more early lines again. I think that was clearly a mistake. But for tomorrow I like Seattle and Orlando.
                                  Bet To Win
                                  Comment
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