NBA Playoffs Flip Flop Theory

[LT Profits]

Brock Landers has pointed out that the "flip flop", more commonly referred to as the Zigzag Thoery, had done well in the NBA Playoffs this season.

Well, I went back to the 2000 Playoffs (almost 10 full playoff seasons) and added a couple of qualifiers and unearthed the following gem:

NBA Playoff HOME teams that lost their last game by 5 points or more AND missed coverig their last game by 5 points or more are 114-91-8, 55.6% ATS since 2000.

Such teams this year only are 14-5-2, 73.7% ATS.

For Money Line players, these teams are 145-68, 68.1% SU since 2000 and 17-4, 81.0% this year.

[LT Profits]

I should add that ATS results are based on Pinny closers.

[FreeFall]

So tonight we should take the cavs and tom we should take the lakers? assuming the spreads are under -5

[Brock Landers]

it hasn't been wrong yet, Cleveland tonight, Lakers tomorrow..

[BL]

Thanks for your work! I really like those kinda stats.

[xxdjstriderxx]

it hasn't been wrong yet, Cleveland tonight, Lakers tomorrow..

i also noticed something like this.
amen.

[LT Profits]

So tonight we should take the cavs and tom we should take the lakers? assuming the spreads are under -5

No, Cavs are not Home.

Yes to Lakers according to this angle, because they are home, they lost last game by 5 points or more (19) and they failed to cover last game by 5 points or more (13.5 based on Denv -4.5).

[FreeFall]

No, Cavs are not Home.

Yes to Lakers according to this angle, because they are home, they lost last game by 5 points or more (19) and they failed to cover last game by 5 points or more (13.5 based on Denv -4.5).

Thanks for the clarification! I forgot that tonight is GM4 for the cavs after seeing DEN v LAL GM4 last night.

I understand this would be a lot of work, but care to explain how you minded and came up with those stats? Maybe in the think tank? I'm sure you didn't go through ESPN for the last 10 years and look at each game one by one?

[pavyracer]

Don't also forget that in this economy teams make money the more games they play. It will be beneficial for Orlando Magic to have another game at home by losing tonight. Selling 20,000 more tickets, advertising space, concessions will add at least 50 million dollars to the local economy. Also pizza sales will be up.

Everything is about money in the playoffs and in a bad economy 7 game series will be played to the maximum after mediocre season attentance.

[LT Profits]

Thanks for the clarification! I forgot that tonight is GM4 for the cavs after seeing DEN v LAL GM4 last night.

I understand this would be a lot of work, but care to explain how you minded and came up with those stats? Maybe in the think tank? I'm sure you didn't go through ESPN for the last 10 years and look at each game one by one?

It's an easy look-up with WinPicks program.

[ico2525]

I like Pavy's thought. I don't get why people are betting Cleveland so hard. In fact, people are hitting it so hard that you idiots began to entirely misinterpret LT's statement. FreeFall, I want to slap you for that. Anyway, Pavy is the only one who has made a point as to why one might want to bet the Cavs. Cleveland is not the best team left. LeBron has only made 2 buzzer-beating winning shots in his career. I have to bet Orlando ML +110 tonight. Pavy, your point is excellent, and that's the biggest reason why I'm not betting twice as much as I am on the Magic tonight.

[Karayilan9]

Pavyracer
Don't also forget that in this economy teams make money the more games they play. It will be beneficial for Orlando Magic to have another game at home by losing tonight. Selling 20,000 more tickets, advertising space, concessions will add at least 50 million dollars to the local economy. Also pizza sales will be up.

Everything is about money in the playoffs and in a bad economy 7 game series will be played to the maximum after mediocre season attentance.

Why would Magics not have another game at home if they won tonight? if they win tonight and Cavs win 2 at home it will be tied at 3-3, won't the last game still be in Orlando or doesnt it work like that?

[FreeFall]

I like Pavy's thought. I don't get why people are betting Cleveland so hard. In fact, people are hitting it so hard that you idiots began to entirely misinterpret LT's statement. FreeFall, I want to slap you for that. Anyway, Pavy is the only one who has made a point as to why one might want to bet the Cavs. Cleveland is not the best team left. LeBron has only made 2 buzzer-beating winning shots in his career. I have to bet Orlando ML +110 tonight. Pavy, your point is excellent, and that's the biggest reason why I'm not betting twice as much as I am on the Magic tonight.

I'm actually passing on tonights game. Before this thread I wanted to take ORL on the ml and actually have ORL +250 for the series. I think the cavs are done. Lebron can't make 40+ or 60 points a game to win for his entire team. They have yet to step up and come to any game this series either. There only win was a lucky one with lebron hitting the three.

[ico2525]

Yeah, I think the public is so off. Can someone find info about the line movement on this game? Is it because of a high volume of bets on the Cavs or is it about dollar amount and liquidity? Either way, I'm going the other way like I said, ORL ML.

[LT Profits]

Line is moving with the money, so it is not RLM.

64% are on Cavs ATS and 61% are on Cavs ML

[MonkeyF0cker]

That statistic is meaningless without comparing it to the home records in all playoff games.

[ico2525]

Who's moving the line like that? It's not people from Ohio; they're ruthless fans. Just from watching ESPN today, I've seen Cleveland media persons discuss the negativity of the fans. Vegas sharps can't really believe that the Cavs have an advantage in Orlando unless they know something I don't.

[ico2525]

I agree with MF, yet the Magic have a great home record. OK the Cavs have the better home record, but they don't have a great away record. The game is in Orlando, so that doesn't matter anyway.

[NBA Hero]

Why would Magics not have another game at home if they won tonight? if they win tonight and Cavs win 2 at home it will be tied at 3-3, won't the last game still be in Orlando or doesnt it work like that?

wha??

if orl win game4. orl just need to get one in three trys.

game 5 in quicken
game 6 in amway
game 7 in quicken

[pavyracer]

Why would Magics not have another game at home if they won tonight? if they win tonight and Cavs win 2 at home it will be tied at 3-3, won't the last game still be in Orlando or doesnt it work like that?

You think if they win tonight they won't finish them off in Cleveland? 3-1 series end up 4-1 90% of the time.

[LT Profits]

That statistic is meaningless without comparing it to the home records in all playoff games.

Since 2000, ALL Home playoff teams are 51.4% ATS and 65.5% SU

[Karayilan9]

Pavyracer
You think if they win tonight they won't finish them off in Cleveland? 3-1 series end up 4-1 90% of the time.

I see your point but on the flip side, if they let Cavs win today, there is a possibility that Cavs could win both their home games and send Orlando home. If Magic win this and a game in Cleveland, they'll have more home games, so its win win for them really, the real pressure is on Cavs if the stats say 3-1 series end up 4-1 90% of the time.

[mathdotcom]

And if you adjust it to only include teams with more than 15 letters, it scored 65% over the past 10 years!

Why did you go back only 10 years?

[ebbearsfb1]

game 5 cleveland game 6 is in orlando game 7 back in cleveland

[LT Profits]

And if you adjust it to only include teams with more than 15 letters, it scored 65% over the past 10 years!

Why did you go back only 10 years?

I didn't want to go back TOO far, and I thought 10 years was the happy zone where the sample size is decent and the data is not too stale.

But since you insist, if we go all the way back to the 1990 playoffs (20 years), home teams that fit the criteria are 195-151-8, 56.4% ATS!

[cockblocker]

I see your point but on the flip side, if they let Cavs win today, there is a possibility that Cavs could win both their home games and send Orlando home. If Magic win this and a game in Cleveland, they'll have more home games, so its win win for them really, the real pressure is on Cavs if the stats say 3-1 series end up 4-1 90% of the time.

Dude, they they play game 6 in Orlando. If Cavs win tonite the series is tied 2-2. Game 7 is in Clev. How are they gonna send Orlando home without playing there?

[Karayilan9]

Cockblocker
Dude, they they play game 6 in Orlando. If Cavs win tonite the series is tied 2-2. Game 7 is in Clev. How the hell are they gonna send Orlando home without playing there?

My bad, I got mixed up with where the games will be played.

[LT Profits]

My bad, I got mixed up with where the games will be played.

Yes, format is 2-2-1-1-1

[Nicky Santoro]

this is by far the stupidest thing i have ever read on SBR forum.. first of all, it's ONLY over 200 games.. it's freakin too small a sample size.. ONLY 200 freakin games.. anything can happen over 200 games.. what if patty venditto hits 55% over the next 200 games, which can be easily done, does that mean we all should bet patty's games?

gimme a break..and it's only hitting 55% over 200 games. that is not that impressive. and home teams are only 51%, which would be down money in gambling..

in the last 200 or so inter league games, AL has dominated like crazy.. but if you made this stat years ago, it would have said NL teams have dominated, so you'd bet NL teams and would have gotten skunked.. NL was dominating in the early days, as AL are now close to 52% lifetime.

this is silly.. 200 games.. come back to me when it's 2000 games and they are now at 50.6%.. not the last 200 games.. lol

[MonkeyF0cker]

I didn't want to go back TOO far, and I thought 10 years was the happy zone where the sample size is decent and the data is not too stale.

But since you insist, if we go all the way back to the 1990 playoffs (20 years), home teams that fit the criteria are 195-151-8, 56.4% ATS!

What is the home team ATS record in that time span?

[mathdotcom]

Very skeptical but good luck

[ico2525]

Nicky, we want to hear who you're on tonight!

[Nicky Santoro]

Nicky, we want to hear who you're on tonight!

no strong play tonight.. no phone call...

[yisman]

Why would Magics not have another game at home if they won tonight? if they win tonight and Cavs win 2 at home it will be tied at 3-3, won't the last game still be in Orlando or doesnt it work like that?

Last game would be in Cleveland. Remember, Cleveland is the #1 seed.

It's a 2-2-1-1-1 format, so Game 5 is in Cleveland. Assuming Cleveland takes Game 5, there will be a Game 6 in Orlando no matter what happens tonight.

[LT Profits]

What is the home team ATS record in that time span?

50.6%