Professor MJ: daily NBA projections

[Professor-MJ]

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!
I've been posting a new thread everyday, I'll start posting each day in this thread. Might make things easier!

Two points. That’s all that was missing to make it a perfect night. Went 3-1 (including a win on the 4-star Wizards bet), with the only loss the Lakers +4 who ended up losing by 5. Oh well, those things happen and it’s part of the game. I also advised to grab the Grizzlies if the line moved a little more in their favor (don’t know if it eventually happened or not) and they also beat the spread.

Remember the following quote: “The more successful the individual, the less inclined he is to make excuses.” *The Magic of Thinking Big* by David J. Schwartz. We should all strive to stop making excuses for our failures. Without further ado, here are today’s projections as we have 4 value bets. They are rated 5 stars, 3 stars, 2 star and 1 star.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Knicks	+110	+127	+1.5	+2.2
Magic	-121	-127	-1.5	-2.2

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Wizards	+162	+218	+4.5	+5.6
Raptors	-180	-218	-4.5	-5.6

Tip: Bet the Raptors.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Mavs	+214	+265	+6	+6.6
Hawks	-240	-265	-6	-6.6

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
76ers	+373	+394	+9	+8.7
Heat	-435	-394	-9	-8.7

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Nuggets	+129	+160	+2.5	+3.7
Bucks	-143	-160	-2.5	-3.7

Tip: You could consider betting the Bucks.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Pistons	+106	+111	+1.5	+1.3
Pelicans	-117	-111	-1.5	-1.3

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Cavs	-113	-109	-1	-1.1
Celtics	+102	+109	+1	+1.1

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Pacers	+450	+566	+10	+10.4
Spurs	-535	-566	-10	-10.4

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Twolves	+248	+197	+7	+4.9
Jazz	-280	-197	-7	-4.9

Tip: Bet the Timberwolves.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Rockets	+113	-112	+2	-1.4
Clippers	-125	+112	-2	+1.4

Tip: Bet the Rockets.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Nets	+116	+274	+1.5	+6.8
Kings	-128	-274	-1.5	-6.8

Tip: Bet the Kings.

“AMAZING BET” (5 stars / 5):

I’m taking the Kings -1.5 at home against the Nets. Am I missing something? This seems almost too good to be true. When two evenly matched teams play each other in the NBA, the home team is favored by 3.5 or 4 points. So Vegas is basically telling us that the Nets have the better team here? Sure, the Kings traded their star player DeMarcus Cousins and lost their 2nd-highest scorer Rudy Gay to a season-ending injury. So far they have won roughly 42% of their games. What percentage of games do you believe they’d win over the course of a full-season with their current lineup? Would it really be LOWER than the .155 record by the Nets, especially considering they got rid of their second-highest scorer Bogdanovich? I really don’t get it. Maybe Brooklyn wins by 10 points tonight, and then I’ll have my answer, but for now I’m baffled.

A few more arguments in favor of the Kings value bet: Sacramento received some players in return of the Cousins trade. They aren’t all-stars, but it’s not like the team lost Cousins and that was it. The Nets are on a 16-game losing streak, and have lost 27 of their past 28. The only thing I don’t like right now is seeing about 80% of the money being wagered on the Kings. Apparently, I’m not the only one in this boat, but I usually prefer to be on the opposite side.

“GOOD” BETS (3 stars / 5):

I’m picking the Timberwolves +7 in Utah. Wiggins and Towns have literally been on fire of late. They will face a tough defense tonight, and it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The Jazz have won in Minnesota twice this year (by 9 and 2 points). In fact, Utah beat the Timberwolves in the past 5 meetings.

The main reason I end up picking Minnesota is the fatigue factor, which I believe is underestimated in the current line. The Timberwolves have played 1 game over the last 3 days, so they are fine. On the other hand, not only is Utah playing the second of back-to-back games, but tonight’s matchup will mark their 3rd in 4 nights (4th in 6 nights). That will take its toll on the Jazz.

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):

I like the Rockets +2 against the Clippers. They have beaten up LA earlier this season by a 140-116 score in Houston. The Rockets have won 5 of the previous 7 meetings. The acquisition of Lou Williams has boosted an attack that was already explosive. After blowing a 17-point lead at home against the Pacers two days ago, Houston will be very focused and motivated tonight.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):

Finally, I’m going with Toronto -4.5 against Washington. I see two things going against the Wizards: 1) they are playing the second of back-to-back games; 2) they are coming off an emotional win against the top team in the NBA. Toronto has won the last 8 meetings between the two teams, including a 10-point win in Washington earlier this year. The loss of Lowry hasn’t affected the Raptors so far, and we’ll see if the trend continues.

As usual I thank you very much for reading this and I wish you the best of luck!

Professor MJ

[john lin]

I love the kings tonight, but like you said all the money is on there side. Makes me want to stay away completely but I haven't decided.

[Professor-MJ]

I love the kings tonight, but like you said all the money is on there side. Makes me want to stay away completely but I haven't decided.

I'm really intrigued by this game!!!

[Professor-MJ]

Professor MJ's projections for March 2nd, 2017

Only 3 games tonight, but strangely enough we have 3 value bets. Here are the full projections for the day:

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Warriors	-350	-186	-7.5	-4.7
Bulls	+305	+186	+7.5	+4.7

Tip: Bet the Bulls.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Hornets	-173	-126	-4	-2.3
Suns	+156	+126	+4	+2.3

Tip: Bet the Suns.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Thunder	-108	-133	-1	-2.7
Blazers	-102	+133	+1	+2.7

Tip: Bet the Thunder.

“AMAZING BET” (5 stars / 5):
Here we go again betting against the top NBA team, the Warriors. Two days after recommending betting the Wizards +6 at home against Golden State, this time I’m going with Chicago +7.5.

I deducted 7% to the Warriors’ estimated win probability to account for the loss of star player Kevin Durant, combined with the fact that the Bulls no longer have Gibson and McDermott (which is a plus for Golden State, obviously). The Warriors are playing a 3^rd game in 4 nights (4^th in 6 days), while the Bulls are well-rested having played one match over the past 4 days.

Earlier this season the Warriors beat the Bulls 123-92 in Golden State, but it should be reminded that Chicago was without their best two players, Jimmy Butler and Dwayne Wade. Golden State has won the last 3 meetings between these two teams.

“OKAY” BETS (2 stars / 5):
I’m picking the Suns +4 at home against Charlotte. The Hornets have lost 12 of 13 games followed by 2 wins in 3 games, where the only loss came in overtime at the Clippers. So they are showing signs of improvement, which concerns me to a certain extent. Tonight’s game will be the Hornets’ fourth in 6 days (all on the road).

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BET (1 star / 5):
The line opened with the Thunder as 1.5-point underdogs, while they are now 1-point favorites. I’m banking on them to win this one. It’s close to being a 2-star bet, and to be honest my gut feeling likes this pick more than the Suns, but we’ll see how it plays out.

Oklahoma City has lost their last 4 road games, but 3 of them were against top teams: Washington, Indiana, San Antonio and Cleveland. They are riding a 4-game win streak (all at home of course). The acquisitions of Gibson and McDermott give them more depth. Oladipo is probable and I sure hope he plays tonight.

Meanwhile, the Blazers are on a bad streak, having lost 5 of their last 6 games (7 of their last 9). However, they have beaten the Thunder 5 straight times at home. In fact, the home team has won the last 8 meetings between these two teams. I’m betting on this trend to end.

Have a great day everyone!!

Professor MJ

[Professor-MJ]

Professor MJ's projections for March 3rd, 2017

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world! Let’s get to business! I’m pretty disappointed with today’s projections. Why? I worked hard analyzing the 10 games, but I only end up with 2 value bets, both rated 1 star. In other words, nothing exciting today. Sorry about that, but I can’t do anything about it: it looks like the lines are sharp today. Here are the details:

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Cavs	-147	-116	-3	-1.8
Hawks	+133	+116	+3	+1.8

Tip: Bet the Hawks.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ
Spurs	-260	-207	-6.5	-4.2
Pelicans	+231	+207	+6.5	+4.2

Tip: Bet the Pelicans.

“PROCEED WITH CAUTION” BETS (1 star / 5):

• My system likes the Hawks +3 (money line +133 / 2.33) at home against Cleveland. The line may be underestimating the impact of the absence of starters Kevin Love and JR Smith. However, Cleveland picked up veteran Deron Williams. The Cavaliers have lost 2 of their last 3 games, while the Hawks have rebounded nicely since a three-game skid by posting a 114-98 win in Boston and beating Dallas 100-95 at home. Atlanta beat the Cavs in Cleveland 110-106 earlier this year. Here is one more thing I like about this pick: 87% of the bets have been placed on the Cavs, and yet the line is not moving (it even opened at 3.5 in certain books, so it went down!?!). That’s a sign sharps are betting Atlanta, and I like the sound of it. To be honest with you, my gut feeling views this bet more like a 2-star bet, but I need to stay consistent with the methodology.
• Grab the Pelicans +6.5 at home against the Spurs. Newly-acquired star DeMarcus Cousins has been recording points since joining the Pelicans, but it hasn’t translated into wins yet, as shown by their 0-3 record. The chemistry will continue to build and things will definitely improve for the team, and the 6.5 spread seems too big. Cousins will be back from a one-game suspension, which means he will be rested and really motivated to win its first game in front of his new fans. It will be the 4th matchup between these two teams this season. The Spurs won the first 2 at home, while the Pelicans got an impressive 119-103 win in New Orleans on January 27th. Also note that Ginobili said he’d either miss tonight’s game, or tomorrow’s game for the Spurs.

[Professor-MJ]

Professor MJ's projections for March 8th, 2017

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

I have decided to change the way the estimated ROI (Return On Investment) are calculated because the previous method was putting too much weight on heavy underdogs. Meanwhile, teams favorite by 5+ points had little chance of being rated 4-star or 5-star bets. The categorization method has also changed a little bit (i.e. the criteria for selecting the number of stars). I felt like those changes were necessary, even though what I did in the past led a 10-4-1 record on bets rated with 3 stars or more. Hopefully it won’t jinx me ;-)

Below are today’s NBA projections:

BULLS-MAGIC (Pinnacle = Bulls by 1.5, Prof MJ = Bulls by 1.3)
NETS-HAWKS (Pinnacle = Hawks by 9.5, Prof MJ = Hawks by 12.4)
HORNETS-HEAT (Pinnacle = Heat by 4, Prof MJ = Heat by 3.4)
KNICKS-BUCKS (Pinnacle = Bucks by 5, Prof MJ = Bucks by 6.7)
RAPTORS-PELICANS (Pinnacle = Pelicans by 2, Prof MJ = Raptors by 2.2)
JAZZ-ROCKETS (Pinnacle = Rockets by 6.5, Prof MJ = Rockets by 8.4)
CLIPPERS-TWOLVES (Pinnacle = Clippers by 3, Prof MJ = Clippers by 2.4)
PISTONS-PACERS (Pinnacle = Pacers by 3.5, Prof MJ = Pacers by 2.8)
WIZARDS-NUGGETS (Pinnacle = Nuggets by 2, Prof MJ = Nuggets by 2.7)
CELTICS-WARRIORS (Pinnacle = Warriors by 8.5, Prof MJ = Warriors by 8.4)

“AMAZING” BET (5 stars / 5):

I’m picking the Raptors +2 in New Orleans. The Raptors have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, including a 4-1 record in New Orleans. The Pelicans are just 1-5 since the acquisition of DeMarcus Cousins. I deducted 8% to Toronto’s estimated win probability because of the absence of Kyle Lowry (other adjustments were made for the acquisitions of Ibaka and Tucker, the injury to Carroll, and the fact that Cousins is now part of the Pelicans lineup). The Raptors are 4-2 since losing Lowry to an injury. Toronto benefited from 3 full days of rest, while New Orleans will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights (4th in 6 days).

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

I recommend the Hawks -9.5 versus Brooklyn. The Hawks have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (4 straight at home), including a 20-point win in Brooklyn earlier this season. Their second-highest scorer Dennis Schroder was benched for a good portion of the last game after exchanging heated words with one of his teammates. I’m pretty sure he will be focused and motivated tonight. After losing 119-111 to the league’s best team (Golden State), the level of competition won’t be as stiff when facing the league’s worst team: things should seem easier tonight for the Hawks. They certainly won’t take the Nets lightly considering the recent failures for Atlanta, and the shocking 13-point win by Brooklyn in Memphis.

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

Take the Rockets -6.5 at home against the Jazz for several reasons (if it weren’t for the numbers, I’d grade this bet 4 stars). First of all, Utah will be playing a 3rd game in 4 days (4th game in 6 days). Their second-highest scorer George Hill is questionable to play because of toe soreness. Even if he plays, he will be affected by this injury. Derrick Favors is out. Joe Johnson is questionable. On Houston’s side, Ryan Anderson is doubtful to play. I also like the fact that Utah has had fairly easy games recently (New Orleans, Sacramento, Brooklyn and Minnesota), while the Rockets have faced much tougher competition (San Antonio, Memphis, LA Clippers). I could envision the Jazz going straight into a wall tonight.

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

I’m going with Milwaukee -5 versus New York. Carmelo Anthony will play for the Knicks, but he has to deal with a knee injury. Joakim Noah is still out for New York. Milwaukee is back in playoff contention, having won 3 straight (including wins against the Raptors and the Clippers) and 7 of their last 10.

A quick word on the Hornets-Heat game. If you feel like betting the Heat after seeing them beat the Cavs twice, I would be cautious. Those games were pretty emotional and I'd be worried about a letdown tonight against Charlotte. I'm not saying you should bet the Hornets: the line seems fine to me, and I would stay away from this game.

Enjoy the games tonight!

Professor MJ

[Professor-MJ]

Professor MJ's projections for March 9th, 2017

Hello fellow NBA fans from around the world!

Before we move on to today’s projections, here is an update on my record per star rating since documenting my plays and posting on the --
5 STARS = 5-2
4 STARS = 3-2-1
3 STARS = 3-2
2 STARS = 4-4
1 STAR = 11-11

Overall: 26-23-1 (win percentage = 53.1%). On picks with 3+ stars: 11-6-1 (win percentage = 64.7%).

We have 5 games tonight and I have 3 values bets (rated 4, 3 and 2 stars, respectively). Here are the details:

CAVALIERS-PISTONS (Pinnacle = Cavaliers by 5.5, Prof MJ = Cavaliers by 3.3)
CLIPPERS-GRIZZLIES (Pinnacle = Grizzlies by 2.5, Prof MJ = Grizzlies by 4.1)
SPURS-THUNDER (Pinnacle = Spurs by 3, Prof MJ = Spurs by 2.8)
76ERS-BLAZERS (Pinnacle = Blazers by 9.5, Prof MJ = Blazers by 7.6)
LAKERS-SUNS (Pinnacle = Suns by 6, Prof MJ = Suns by 5.2)

“GREAT” BET (4 stars / 5):

Despite playing the second leg of back-to-back games, I’m taking the Pistons +5.5 versus Cleveland. My projections have the Cavaliers favorite by 3.3, so when the line opened at 3.5 / 4 in some bookies there wasn’t any value there. As of this morning, 76% of the bets on the spread have gone on Cleveland, moving the line to 5.5. Perhaps the public is reacting to Detroit’s 115-98 loss in Indiana last night. Prior to that game, the Pistons had won 5 of their last 7 games, while Cleveland has lost 4 of their last 6. Keep in mind that Kevin Love, Kyle Korver and J.R. Smith are all out for tonight.

“GOOD” BET (3 stars / 5):

I suggest betting the 76ers +9.5 in Portland. Yes, their star player Joel Embiid is out for the season, and his backup Jahlil Okafor is questionable for tonight. But 9.5 points? Seems high to me, and my statistical models tend to agree. The Sixers beat the Blazers 93-92 in Philly earlier this year. The last time the 76ers played in Portland was a year ago, where the Blazers took it by a 108-105 score. The line opened at 10 and has dropped half a point following slightly more bets being placed on Philly.

“OKAY” BET (2 stars / 5):

We end today’s write-up by picking Memphis -2.5 versus the Clippers. Unlike the Cleveland-Detroit game, this time we are betting against the team playing a second game in as many nights. The Clippers lost 107-91 in Minnesota, a very disappointing result after beating Boston and Chicago. The Grizzlies are on a 3-game losing streak, which culminated with an embarrassing 13-point loss at home against the worst-team in the league, the Nets. The level of confidence is probably not very high in the Grizzlies locker room, but I can’t imagine the players not being focused and not looking for forgiveness from their home fans. The Clippers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this year (each team was able to win one game on the road).

A special thanks to those of you who have been reading my write-ups on a daily basis over the last several weeks! I really appreciate that you take some time out of your day to read my analyses.

[vegaschulo]

Always appreciate a good analysis. .keep it up MJ!!! Thanks for sharing. .

[nbaprofosor]

You are just terrible basicly taking all favorites