Game 2's "Its On and Poppin"

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  • HoulihansTX
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-12-09
    • 30566

    #1
    Game 2's "Its On and Poppin"
    Lakers -5.5
    Cavs -8.5

    I bet 210Over
    I lean 188Over

    --Ok, Melo goes crazy in game 1 (39pts 6reb. 4ast). Nuggets shot 48%FG & 42%3Pt, and had 8pt lead going in to the 2Qtr. But they squandered that away by 2nd Half. Denver had a perfect storm for most of the game, yet managed to lose. Nuggets are undersized (Out-Rebounded by 9Reb, and allowed 17O.Reb), and their style of play caters to the Lakers strengths (Fast Tempo/High Scoring).

    Taking the 210Over, also. Lakers should have a sizable lead most of game, and Nuggets will be forced to play catch up. When Lakers play with a lead their defensive intensity vanishes.

    --Check this.... In the Cavs 8 games prior to the Conference Finals, their 3Pt shooting hasn't been superb. They're shooting 36%3Pt B4 Game 1. Now that is important because when the magic tighten up on defense they force many jumpers.

    Also, Orlando has Howard in the middle, which intimidates smaller guards(West, Williams). It forces them to take more jumpers than they usually do. The Cavs shot 37%3Pt going 8-25. That's the Cavs problem. Throughout the playoffs when the Cavs shoot 18-or-more 3Pt's they're avg is 34%. When they shoot 17-or-less 3Pt's they're avg is 42%. All I'm saying is if the Cavs don't start draining 3Pt's or find a consistent scoring threat in the paint, they are in trouble.

    Oh yea, Cavs have no one to guard Rashard Lewis. If Lewis is able to get open 3pts he will consistently drain them.

    You look at all that and say, "Why is he taking Cavs -8.5?" When they play Game 2 on 5/22, it will mark the 6th straight day Orlando has been on the road. With Game 2 being their 3rd straight game on the road. I expect Orlando to settle for 3Pointers all game, and Cavs will play desperate since they will want to protect home court.

    Also I'm not betting this, but I would lean 188Over for the Cavs/Magic. Magic's style of play dictates this matchup. Both will get alot of possessions. It seems the books haven't adjusted to these teams style of play yet.

    Gl to all
  • HoulihansTX
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 02-12-09
    • 30566

    #2
    Lakers/ Nuggs-Game 2

    Play: 1st Half 105Over
    Lean: 1st Half Lakers -3
    Comment
    • Domestic
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-10-09
      • 6323

      #3
      A lot of this makes sense. Good picks imo.
      Comment
      • lakerboy
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 04-02-09
        • 94379

        #4
        Originally posted by HoulihansTX
        Lakers/ Nuggs-Game 2

        Play: 1st Half 105Over
        Lean: 1st Half Lakers -3
        hey boss u dont like lakers for the game line
        Comment
        • dakid04200
          SBR Rookie
          • 04-25-09
          • 41

          #5
          Originally posted by lakerboy
          hey boss u dont like lakers for the game line
          Don't worry Lakerboy, look at the top, he took Lakers -5.5
          Comment
          • andrewevans512
            SBR High Roller
            • 02-20-09
            • 173

            #6
            Denver is pissed, Lakers only won by 2 expect la to take a beating tonight, Denver ML or Denver 5.5 for some extra insurince can't lose , i hope kobe gets injured tonight ftw
            Comment
            • dakid04200
              SBR Rookie
              • 04-25-09
              • 41

              #7
              It looks like about 60% of the public is on the Nuggets tonight?! What do you guys think, Good time to pound the Lakers...

              Does anybody know what the public is doing on the total?
              Comment
              • polishkielbasa10
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-12-08
                • 962

                #8
                wow...ML Denver 72%
                ........O/U 70-30%

                vegas is foaming at the mouth for denver....everyone here wants to crush the lakeshow, thinking denver can't possibly keep it close again...but they are playing the best basketball out of anybody..the lakers flat out haven't got it done
                Comment
                • HoulihansTX
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 02-12-09
                  • 30566

                  #9
                  Originally posted by polishkielbasa10
                  wow...ML Denver 72%
                  ........O/U 70-30%

                  vegas is foaming at the mouth for denver....everyone here wants to crush the lakeshow, thinking denver can't possibly keep it close again...but they are playing the best basketball out of anybody..the lakers flat out haven't got it done
                  Your post contradicts itself, and is confusing. Can you elaborate??
                  Comment
                  • BobHarvey
                    SBR MVP
                    • 07-08-08
                    • 3987

                    #10
                    I'm with the Lakers -5.5 and the OVER.
                    Comment
                    • SmackdownV
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 04-14-09
                      • 5918

                      #11
                      Denver ML tonight dropped from +250 game 1 to +210 tonight.....

                      That tells me all I need to know about this game. I am taking the Denver ML and the Denver over 211.5.

                      Drop it like it's hot......
                      Comment
                      • polishkielbasa10
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-12-08
                        • 962

                        #12
                        based on the vegas ml and over...it seems all the money is on denver and the over...However, most of the people here like the Lakers and think they will crush...However, it seems people who are betting the lakers are betting with their heart and not their head...I feel the nuggets are playing the best basketball regardless of game 1, and will continue to battle and possibly pull out game 2. It just seems, cause the lakers destroyed a hapless rocket team at home in 2 games in the last series they will do the same to the nuggets..its just not so..I like the nuggets, and the under again, however, I'll probably end up just a big foot in my ass and be stupid and take the lakers..
                        although i did have the magic last night so...?
                        Comment
                        • SmackdownV
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 04-14-09
                          • 5918

                          #13
                          Good post Polish.....

                          I am going to take 1 unit on the Denver ML
                          and 1.5 Units on the OVER....

                          If the Nuggets do win....it will be in the 100's anyways.....
                          Comment
                          • TeamNookMum
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 04-15-09
                            • 249

                            #14
                            Originally posted by andrewevans512
                            Denver is pissed, Lakers only won by 2 expect la to take a beating tonight, Denver ML or Denver 5.5 for some extra insurince can't lose , i hope kobe gets injured tonight ftw
                            If you respect the game, you should never wish injury upon a player. Besides i think Denver good enough to beat Lakers even with Kobe.
                            Comment
                            • SmackdownV
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 04-14-09
                              • 5918

                              #15
                              Can someone please explain for me why everyone is in love with the Lakeshow tonight? Just want some responses....Billups is up for this game....both he and JR had off games in #1 and the Nuggets GAVE the lakers that game. Any insight would be appreciated......I am LOVING the Nuggets......(why am I alone in this one)..........
                              Comment
                              • HoulihansTX
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 02-12-09
                                • 30566

                                #16
                                Originally posted by SmackdownV
                                Can someone please explain for me why everyone is in love with the Lakeshow tonight? Just want some responses....Billups is up for this game....both he and JR had off games in #1 and the Nuggets GAVE the lakers that game. Any insight would be appreciated......I am LOVING the Nuggets......(why am I alone in this one)..........
                                Nuggets are a good team. They can score on all areas of the court, and have a great leader(Billups) who can have calming on his teammates. Carmelo is playing out of his mind, and their bench can potentially win games for them.

                                Alright!! All that said.....Lakers are still the better team. For every skilled player Denver has the Lakers have a better one. Denver's bench has one skill player(JR), and the rest are energy guys. Energy players are negated by having to play better players. Lakers bring Odom, Farmar who are skillful players. Lakers at home are great, and the Nuggets punched the Lakers in the mouth 1Qtr, and admittedly to my surprise the Lakers came back and won it. Nuggets shot eleven more free throws than the Lakers, so don't tell me the refs helped the Lakers.

                                The Nuggets aren't going to beat the Lakers, by trying to out-score them. And the Nuggets aren't going to turn into a defensive minded team all of a sudden either. Lakers will always outscore anyone, and that's how the Nuggets got to the Con. Finals. But its just the Nuggets luck, they face a team that's better than them, at what they do.
                                Comment
                                • HoulihansTX
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 02-12-09
                                  • 30566

                                  #17
                                  I know my post have been long-winded, but I'm out of school for another couple of weeks so I have nothing but time to burn feuding with ya'll.
                                  Comment
                                  • SmackdownV
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 04-14-09
                                    • 5918

                                    #18
                                    Thanks HoulihansTX!

                                    I'm still gonna think on it.....but that ML drop between games 1 and 2 has me scratching my head.......Like this.
                                    Comment
                                    • HoulihansTX
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 02-12-09
                                      • 30566

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by SmackdownV
                                      Thanks HoulihansTX!

                                      I'm still gonna think on it.....but that ML drop between games 1 and 2 has me scratching my head.......Like this.
                                      Cool..Cool.

                                      But they dropped the moneyline price, b/c of the play of the Nuggets in game 1. They know that everyone saw a close game, and the public will see a lot of value in laying money on the underdog. Nuggets have a chance at winning the game, dont get me wrong, but I think the books are just covering their asses.
                                      Comment
                                      • jjgold
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 07-20-05
                                        • 388179

                                        #20
                                        Smart money is on Lakers, good write ups
                                        Comment
                                        • HoulihansTX
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 02-12-09
                                          • 30566

                                          #21
                                          Orl/Cavs-Game 2

                                          1st-Half 94.5Over
                                          Comment
                                          • sweetjones55
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 04-07-09
                                            • 5257

                                            #22
                                            I really like that the Lakers have Kobe on Billups a lot. Billups can't drive or get a shot off on Kobe.
                                            Scared money don't make money

                                            182-120-6 (60.26%) Final Total NBA Record over 308 plays
                                            37-20-1 (65%) Record for the 2010 NBA PLAYOFFS
                                            Comment
                                            • whoatommy
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 09-29-08
                                              • 863

                                              #23
                                              I think all games in this series stay close....these teams won't have double digit leads for very long....
                                              Comment
                                              • suicidekings
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-23-09
                                                • 9962

                                                #24
                                                The Lakers know just how close they came in the first game to losing, and will come out strong, however, when they start strong, they have a way of letting the opponent back into the game, so I'm leaning towards a big Laker lead at the half, that fades away in the second half.

                                                I opted for:
                                                Laker 1Q -1.5 (-120)
                                                Lakers 1H -3 (-105)

                                                1H Over 105.5 (-117)
                                                Kobe Bryant, Over 31.5 pts (+100)


                                                Planning on hitting the second half hard regardless of how these turn out.
                                                Comment
                                                • HoulihansTX
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 02-12-09
                                                  • 30566

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                  The Lakers know just how close they came in the first game to losing, and will come out strong, however, when they start strong, they have a way of letting the opponent back into the game, so I'm leaning towards a big Laker lead at the half, that fades away in the second half.

                                                  I opted for:
                                                  Laker 1Q -1.5 (-120)
                                                  Lakers 1H -3 (-105)

                                                  1H Over 105.5 (-117)
                                                  Kobe Bryant, Over 31.5 pts (+100)


                                                  Planning on hitting the second half hard regardless of how these turn out.
                                                  Smart man
                                                  Comment
                                                  • paco
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 05-07-09
                                                    • 62873

                                                    #26
                                                    Melo is possesed
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HoulihansTX
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 02-12-09
                                                      • 30566

                                                      #27
                                                      1-3 tonite. Ouch!!! Always Tomorrow Lets go Cavs.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • suicidekings
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 03-23-09
                                                        • 9962

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by HoulihansTX
                                                        Smart man
                                                        Thank you sir. I added a Nuggets 3Q ML (+140) that pushed, and a 2H Nuggets -1 (+200) that hit so all in all it was a solid night, except for the 1H Lakers -3...

                                                        On to Magic / Cavs.
                                                        Comment
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