If Steph Curry doesn't play today...

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 01:14 PM

Line moved to 222

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 05:04 PM

At 221.5 now. This is my biggest bet of the year. Without Steph, the game will slow down.

shocka1212 · 01-28-17, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by bryant81

At 221.5 now. This is my biggest bet of the year. Without Steph, the game will slow down.

Yea, cus KD and Klay can't drop a 1/3 of that number on their own....

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by shocka1212

Yea, cus KD and Klay can't drop a 1/3 of that number on their own....

Cool. You missed the point. There will be less possessions due to slower pace. Read the first post again.

KD and Klay could score 1/3 of that and still the under can hit. I don't know what your point is. Oh yeah, you're just trying to be a smart ass. Try harder.

shocka1212 · 01-28-17, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by bryant81

Cool. You missed the point. There will be less possessions due to slower pace. Read the first post again.

KD and Klay could score 1/3 of that and still the under can hit. I don't know what your point is. Oh yeah, you're just trying to be a smart ass. Try harder.

The point I'm making is that that number accounts for games curry does play just when he's not necessarily in the game. Style of play won't change if he's not in the lineup, just the player who is replacing him. Taking the under in any warriors game is risky, and making it your "biggest bet of the year" because one player(who isn't their leading scorer) is resting. You're banking on Klay and KD going completely cold

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by shocka1212

The point I'm making is that that number accounts for games curry does play just when he's not necessarily in the game. Style of play won't change if he's not in the lineup, just the player who is replacing him. Taking the under in any warriors game is risky, and making it your "biggest bet of the year" because one player(who isn't their leading scorer) is resting. You're banking on Klay and KD going completely cold

I'm not banking on that. I'm banking on the game slowing down as it as when Steph doesn't play. Enough that I think they hit the under.

Also, it's not about one player. I wouldn't make this bet if that one player was KD or Klay or anyone else. But stats show that Curry has a bigger impact on pace than anyone in the league.

Additionally, Livingston is a very slow pace player. If he starts, that's even better for my bet.

And of course the Clippers play a fairly slow pace themselves. There's many factors at play here.

It's not ''oh this one guy is out, how will they make up those points?'', I'm taking a look at how that one player could impact the game if he doesn't play. If they were playing against a fast pace team, I'd be hesitant. But there's a lot of things pointing to the under if Steph doesn't play tonight.

shocka1212 · 01-28-17, 05:55 PM

If one person would impact the game, the loss of CP3 is huge (yuuge) for the other side. No perimeter defense without him. Not trying to undermine you here. Just giving you another angle to consider before you lay a ton of coin on the "no Steph curry, the pace will most likely take a hit" theory

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by shocka1212

If one person would impact the game, the loss of CP3 is huge (yuuge) for the other side. No perimeter defense without him. Not trying to undermine you here. Just giving you another angle to consider before you lay a ton of coin on the "no Steph curry, the pace will most likely take a hit" theory

Thanks for the input.

I think Paul being out would've been suicide against Steph. The dynamic changes with Steph out too (if he is out). The Clippers still have some capable defenders with Rivers and Mbah a Moute. We'll see how it plays out.

Yankfan4life2 · 01-28-17, 06:33 PM

As someone who lives off total bets, I wouldnt say this is an easy bet. Ive noticed (in part due to someones star injury thread here) that teams that the public expects to score low due to them missing a key player actually end up going off and game ends up going over (check chris paul's first game out, felton went off and game went over, although the money was on the under)

To back you up: curry is a terrible defender and whoever starts in his place (maybe livingston? Idk) would be an instant upgrade on the defensive side of the game limiting felton.

I'll be betting the over just because i like betting against the public in spots like this. BOL tho

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 06:50 PM

Steph likely to play. Cashed out my bet.

Line back up to 223 immediately.

bryant81 · 01-28-17, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by Yankfan4life2

As someone who lives off total bets, I wouldnt say this is an easy bet. Ive noticed (in part due to someones star injury thread here) that teams that the public expects to score low due to them missing a key player actually end up going off and game ends up going over (check chris paul's first game out, felton went off and game went over, although the money was on the under)

To back you up: curry is a terrible defender and whoever starts in his place (maybe livingston? Idk) would be an instant upgrade on the defensive side of the game limiting felton.

I'll be betting the over just because i like betting against the public in spots like this. BOL tho

As I said before, my thinking was not ''player x is out, so I'm taking the under''. It's never that simple. It was because how Steph has impacted his team's pace. And them playing against a slow team.

Yankfan4life2 · 01-28-17, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by bryant81

As I said before, my thinking was not ''player x is out, so I'm taking the under''. It's never that simple. It was because how Steph has impacted his team's pace. And them playing against a slow team.

I think they keep their pace whether steph is out there or not to be honest but I get what youre saying.

shocka1212 · 01-28-17, 10:07 PM

My -11.5 sitting so pretty right now. Clippers are an automatic fade against any team 5 seed or above in the west

shocka1212 · 01-28-17, 10:24 PM

117 in 3 qtrs... absolutely bizarre..