Lakers, Rockets meet in Western Semifinals
Lakers, Rockets meet in Western Semifinals
The Rockets finally made it out of the first round of the playoffs, but their chances of making a deeper run appear very slim with the Lakers up next on their schedule. Andrew Bynum and LA skunked Houston during the regular season, winning all four games straight up and sending their backers home with four winning tickets against the spread as well. Game 1 tips tonight in Los Angeles on TNT.
The market has spoken.
The NBA says its top selling jersey for this year is the No. 24 belonging to Kobe Bryant, and that his Los Angeles Lakers have the most popular team merchandise in the league. People pay a lot of money to express their love for the Lakers. One look at the betting odds says it all: Los Angeles is a -1000 favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals at the expense of the Houston Rockets (+700).
The Rockets haven’t given bettors much reason to choose otherwise. They dropped all four of their matchups with the Lakers during the regular season, SU and ATS. Here are the four contests in question.
Nov. 9, 2008: Houston 82, Los Angeles 111 (Lakers 77)
Jan. 13, 2009: Los Angeles 105, Houston 100 (Lakers -4)
Mar. 11, 2009: Los Angeles 102, Houston 96 (Lakers +3½)
Apr. 3, 2009: Houston 81, Los Angeles 93 (Lakers -5½)
Those four games run the gamut of the entire season. The Lakers have beaten Houston with and without Andrew Bynum. The Rockets have lost with and without Tracy McGrady. The lineups have changed, but the song remains the same. Bettors are expecting more of the same when these two clubs meet Monday night (10:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT) in Game 1 of the Western semis; Los Angeles is laying eight points in the opener with a total of 193½.
The big question, as it usually is with the Lakers, is whether they’re overvalued in this situation. Removing the aforementioned four games from the regular season reveals very little: Los Angeles was 61-17 SU and 39-39 ATS against the rest of the NBA, while Houston was 53-25 SU and 40-37-1 ATS. Neither team pulled in a profit during the first round, either, as the Lakers dumped Utah in five games (2-3 ATS) and the Rockets disposed of Portland in six (3-3 ATS).
Reading the tealeaves from the Game 1 betting market, we can infer that the Rockets are getting some love from the sharps, at least for the series opener. Houston was generating about 70 percent of the action at Friday’s open before the levee broke and Lakers money came pouring in. The home side was drawing about 85 percent support by Sunday afternoon, both against the spread and the moneyline.
Surveys had the over checking in at 90 percent support. Because L.A. was so dominant during the regular season, if you’re a value bettor, the total should be more compelling than the spread in this matchup. The Lakers and Rockets split their season series with two overs followed by two unders. The final scores add up to 193, 205, 198 and 174, which would again be a 2-2 split against Monday’s total of 193½ points. The over was 42-39-1 for the Lakers this year and 40-42 for the Rockets. There’s just no hard data here to support the public’s desire to bet the over.
On the other hand, we have the last four Rockets-Blazers games going under, as well as the last three between the Lakers and Jazz. We’re talking playoff basketball now; the under went 24-21 during the first round, including all those overtime games. Defense is getting tighter now as the competition level increases. Houston is already recognized as a defensive team at 94.4 points allowed per game compared to 99.3 for the Lakers. But when pace is taken into consideration, the Lakers are No. 5 in the NBA at 101.8 points allowed per 100 possessions. The Rockets are No. 8 at 103 points. The relatively hidden value of the Lakers as a defensive team adds to the value of the under at the pay window.
If the under has some merit here, it follows that the underdog Rockets are more likely to get paid during this series by keeping the scores low and the spreads difficult to cover. The Lakers are 5-4 ATS this year when laying 8 or 8½ points, and 15-26 ATS as even bigger favorites, so we’re bumping up against their ability to absorb chalk. The Rockets are 2-0 ATS when getting eight or more points. They’ll go for three on Monday.
The Rockets finally made it out of the first round of the playoffs, but their chances of making a deeper run appear very slim with the Lakers up next on their schedule. Andrew Bynum and LA skunked Houston during the regular season, winning all four games straight up and sending their backers home with four winning tickets against the spread as well. Game 1 tips tonight in Los Angeles on TNT.
The market has spoken.
The NBA says its top selling jersey for this year is the No. 24 belonging to Kobe Bryant, and that his Los Angeles Lakers have the most popular team merchandise in the league. People pay a lot of money to express their love for the Lakers. One look at the betting odds says it all: Los Angeles is a -1000 favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals at the expense of the Houston Rockets (+700).
The Rockets haven’t given bettors much reason to choose otherwise. They dropped all four of their matchups with the Lakers during the regular season, SU and ATS. Here are the four contests in question.
Nov. 9, 2008: Houston 82, Los Angeles 111 (Lakers 77)
Jan. 13, 2009: Los Angeles 105, Houston 100 (Lakers -4)
Mar. 11, 2009: Los Angeles 102, Houston 96 (Lakers +3½)
Apr. 3, 2009: Houston 81, Los Angeles 93 (Lakers -5½)
Those four games run the gamut of the entire season. The Lakers have beaten Houston with and without Andrew Bynum. The Rockets have lost with and without Tracy McGrady. The lineups have changed, but the song remains the same. Bettors are expecting more of the same when these two clubs meet Monday night (10:30 p.m. Eastern, TNT) in Game 1 of the Western semis; Los Angeles is laying eight points in the opener with a total of 193½.
The big question, as it usually is with the Lakers, is whether they’re overvalued in this situation. Removing the aforementioned four games from the regular season reveals very little: Los Angeles was 61-17 SU and 39-39 ATS against the rest of the NBA, while Houston was 53-25 SU and 40-37-1 ATS. Neither team pulled in a profit during the first round, either, as the Lakers dumped Utah in five games (2-3 ATS) and the Rockets disposed of Portland in six (3-3 ATS).
Reading the tealeaves from the Game 1 betting market, we can infer that the Rockets are getting some love from the sharps, at least for the series opener. Houston was generating about 70 percent of the action at Friday’s open before the levee broke and Lakers money came pouring in. The home side was drawing about 85 percent support by Sunday afternoon, both against the spread and the moneyline.
Surveys had the over checking in at 90 percent support. Because L.A. was so dominant during the regular season, if you’re a value bettor, the total should be more compelling than the spread in this matchup. The Lakers and Rockets split their season series with two overs followed by two unders. The final scores add up to 193, 205, 198 and 174, which would again be a 2-2 split against Monday’s total of 193½ points. The over was 42-39-1 for the Lakers this year and 40-42 for the Rockets. There’s just no hard data here to support the public’s desire to bet the over.
On the other hand, we have the last four Rockets-Blazers games going under, as well as the last three between the Lakers and Jazz. We’re talking playoff basketball now; the under went 24-21 during the first round, including all those overtime games. Defense is getting tighter now as the competition level increases. Houston is already recognized as a defensive team at 94.4 points allowed per game compared to 99.3 for the Lakers. But when pace is taken into consideration, the Lakers are No. 5 in the NBA at 101.8 points allowed per 100 possessions. The Rockets are No. 8 at 103 points. The relatively hidden value of the Lakers as a defensive team adds to the value of the under at the pay window.
If the under has some merit here, it follows that the underdog Rockets are more likely to get paid during this series by keeping the scores low and the spreads difficult to cover. The Lakers are 5-4 ATS this year when laying 8 or 8½ points, and 15-26 ATS as even bigger favorites, so we’re bumping up against their ability to absorb chalk. The Rockets are 2-0 ATS when getting eight or more points. They’ll go for three on Monday.