Celtics face Magic and Dwight Howard without Kevin Garnett
Celtics face Magic and Dwight Howard without Kevin Garnett
Will home-court advantage and the play of Glen Davis be enough to help the Boston Celtics against Dwight Howard & the Orlando Magic in this series?
You call that an entrance?
We fully expected the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic to make it here. But neither team is going into the Eastern Conference Semifinals with fanfare and rose petals. The defending champion Celtics needed seven games and seven overtimes to beat the Chicago Bulls, and it was a saw-off against the betting odds at 3-3-1 ATS. The Magic split the first two games of their series against the Philadelphia 76ers at 0-4 ATS before finding another gear and putting Philly away in six.
The Celtics are getting the benefit of the doubt as -140 favorites to win this series, but only as 2½-point favorites to win Monday’s opener at the Garden (8:00 p.m. Eastern, TNT). That suggests the betting public believes home-court advantage will be the decisive factor for Boston. Perhaps it will, but each team has won in the other’s building this year:
The two March games deserve added attention, not only for being relatively recent, but also for the status of Kevin Garnett and his strained knee. Garnett wasn’t on the floor (neither was Rajon Rondo) during the lone Orlando payday, and KG played just 16:31 in the last game on the list before eventually being shut down for the year. The Magic had their full complement on the court, or at least close to full with midseason acquisition Rafer Alston at the point subbing for the injured Jameer Nelson.
Orlando won’t have that luxury on Monday night. The Orlando Sentinel reports that shooting guard Courtney Lee will not play after taking an accidental Dwight Howard elbow to the nose in Game 5 against Philadelphia. Lee had sinus surgery on Thursday and will have to wear a protective mask once he returns, which might not be until Friday’s Game 3 back at the O-Rena. Lee didn’t travel with the team to Boston; according to coach Stan Van Gundy, it would be a “bonus” if Lee plays at all this round.
Shooting guard isn’t a new area of concern for the Magic. Lee won the starting job this year as a rookie and developed as the season progressed; his 14.1 PER in five games against Philadelphia is close to the indexed NBA average of 15 and a marked improvement over both Game 6 starter J.J. Redick (12.4 PER) and Mickael Pietrus (5.0 PER). Orlando is hardly doomed if Redick has to start again – the former Dukie went 5-of-7 from downtown for all his 15 points as the Magic dusted off the Sixers in Game 6. But it’s a demerit against Orlando that is going mostly unnoticed.
The focus for this series is almost entirely in the frontcourt. The No. 8-seed Bulls and their beefy frontline were able to hang with the C’s minus their top two power forwards, Garnett and Leon Powe. Now Boston has to contend with Howard, who supplanted Garnett as the Defensive Player of the Year with 13.9 rebounds (9.7 on defense), 2.9 blocks and 1.0 steals per 36 minutes. When Howard isn’t banging inside, Rashard Lewis is drifting back behind the arc and hitting 39.7 percent of his trey attempts. Howard and Lewis are the top two scorers on the Magic roster; Chicago’s offense was generated from the backcourt, where it first had to deal with Rondo’s blanket coverage.
How often can Orlando put it all together on Boston’s court? The Magic were one of the best road teams during the regular season at 27-14 SU and 26-14-1 ATS. The Celtics were 35-6 SU and 21-20 ATS at the Garden with a very interesting split against the total: The over was 26-14-1 at home and 15-26 on the road. Monday’s total is 188½ points. Boston’s ability to push the score in front of the home fans should be tested enough by Howard to make the Magic a value pick in this series at +120.
Will home-court advantage and the play of Glen Davis be enough to help the Boston Celtics against Dwight Howard & the Orlando Magic in this series?
You call that an entrance?
We fully expected the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic to make it here. But neither team is going into the Eastern Conference Semifinals with fanfare and rose petals. The defending champion Celtics needed seven games and seven overtimes to beat the Chicago Bulls, and it was a saw-off against the betting odds at 3-3-1 ATS. The Magic split the first two games of their series against the Philadelphia 76ers at 0-4 ATS before finding another gear and putting Philly away in six.
The Celtics are getting the benefit of the doubt as -140 favorites to win this series, but only as 2½-point favorites to win Monday’s opener at the Garden (8:00 p.m. Eastern, TNT). That suggests the betting public believes home-court advantage will be the decisive factor for Boston. Perhaps it will, but each team has won in the other’s building this year:
- Dec. 1, 2008: Orlando 88 at Boston 107 (Celtics -8½)
- Jan. 22, 2009: Boston 90 at Orlando 80 (Celtics +4½)
- Mar. 8, 2009: Orlando 86 at Boston 79 (Magic +2½)
- Mar. 25, 2009: Boston 82 at Orlando 84 (Celtics +3½)
The two March games deserve added attention, not only for being relatively recent, but also for the status of Kevin Garnett and his strained knee. Garnett wasn’t on the floor (neither was Rajon Rondo) during the lone Orlando payday, and KG played just 16:31 in the last game on the list before eventually being shut down for the year. The Magic had their full complement on the court, or at least close to full with midseason acquisition Rafer Alston at the point subbing for the injured Jameer Nelson.
Orlando won’t have that luxury on Monday night. The Orlando Sentinel reports that shooting guard Courtney Lee will not play after taking an accidental Dwight Howard elbow to the nose in Game 5 against Philadelphia. Lee had sinus surgery on Thursday and will have to wear a protective mask once he returns, which might not be until Friday’s Game 3 back at the O-Rena. Lee didn’t travel with the team to Boston; according to coach Stan Van Gundy, it would be a “bonus” if Lee plays at all this round.
Shooting guard isn’t a new area of concern for the Magic. Lee won the starting job this year as a rookie and developed as the season progressed; his 14.1 PER in five games against Philadelphia is close to the indexed NBA average of 15 and a marked improvement over both Game 6 starter J.J. Redick (12.4 PER) and Mickael Pietrus (5.0 PER). Orlando is hardly doomed if Redick has to start again – the former Dukie went 5-of-7 from downtown for all his 15 points as the Magic dusted off the Sixers in Game 6. But it’s a demerit against Orlando that is going mostly unnoticed.
The focus for this series is almost entirely in the frontcourt. The No. 8-seed Bulls and their beefy frontline were able to hang with the C’s minus their top two power forwards, Garnett and Leon Powe. Now Boston has to contend with Howard, who supplanted Garnett as the Defensive Player of the Year with 13.9 rebounds (9.7 on defense), 2.9 blocks and 1.0 steals per 36 minutes. When Howard isn’t banging inside, Rashard Lewis is drifting back behind the arc and hitting 39.7 percent of his trey attempts. Howard and Lewis are the top two scorers on the Magic roster; Chicago’s offense was generated from the backcourt, where it first had to deal with Rondo’s blanket coverage.
How often can Orlando put it all together on Boston’s court? The Magic were one of the best road teams during the regular season at 27-14 SU and 26-14-1 ATS. The Celtics were 35-6 SU and 21-20 ATS at the Garden with a very interesting split against the total: The over was 26-14-1 at home and 15-26 on the road. Monday’s total is 188½ points. Boston’s ability to push the score in front of the home fans should be tested enough by Howard to make the Magic a value pick in this series at +120.
