(6) Dallas (4-1 SU and ATS) at (2) Denver (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS)
Two teams that rolled through their respective first-round playoff series will open second-round play at the Pepsi Center, where the torrid Nuggets will host the surging Mavericks.
Denver pounded the seventh-seeded Hornets, beating the spread in every game en route to a 4-1 series victory, including a 121-63 Game 4 wipeout in New Orleans that tied the NBA record for largest margin of victory in a playoff game. Denver finished things off with Wednesday’s 107-86 Game 5 rout as a 10-point home chalk.
The Nuggets’ lone loss to New Orleans was a tightly contested, 95-93 road setback in Game 3, but they still cashed as a 4½-point pup. The Nuggets averaged 108.4 ppg and allowed a stingy 84.2 ppg in the series, and their four wins came by an even more whopping average of 31 ppg (112.5-81.5). Carmelo Anthony (24.0 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (22.6 ppg) led the Nuggets in the first round, and Denver heads into the second round on an 18-4 SU tear (14-8 ATS).
Dallas knocked out the third-seeded Spurs, stealing home-court advantage with a 105-97 Game 1 win as a four-point road underdog. The Mavs dropped Game 2, then won and cashed in the last three games of the series, including Tuesday’s 106-93 road victory as a five-point ‘dog to close it out.
The Mavericks averaged 96.4 ppg against San Antonio, a few points below their season average of 101.4, but they held the Spurs to just 90.4 ppg, seven points below San Antonio’s season average. Dallas’ four wins came by eight points or more, with Dirk Nowitzki (19.2 ppg) and Josh Howard (18.8 ppg) leading the way. The Mavs are on an 11-3 SU run (9-5 ATS) in their last 14 starts.
Denver is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight meetings with Dallas, including 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets won three of those four games by a combined total of seven points, including a 103-101 road win catching 3½ points in their most recent battle on March 27. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at the Pepsi Center, but the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the road team has cashed in five of the last seven clashes.
The Nuggets are 36-8 SU (26-17-1 ATS) at home this year, and Dallas is 20-24 SU (23-21 ATS) on the road.
Coming off their 5-0 ATS run against New Orleans, the Nuggets are on pointspread rolls of 13-4 overall, 13-3 against the Western Conference, 12-3 against winning teams, 7-1 as a favorite, 7-0 against the Southwest Division and 4-0 on their home court. The Mavericks are also on several ATS upswings, including 5-1 overall, 17-5 as a playoff pup, 6-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 in second-round playoff games.
The over is on streaks of 8-3 for Denver at home (all as a chalk), 5-0 for Dallas on the road, 7-1 with the Mavs as a playoff pup and 20-8 for Dallas in second-round playoff games. However, the under hit in the last three games of the Nuggets-Hornets series and is 5-2 in Denver’s last seven starts, and the under for Dallas is 61-29 in its last 90 games against Northwest Division opponents.
Finally, the under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in this rivalry, with the last three in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Two teams that rolled through their respective first-round playoff series will open second-round play at the Pepsi Center, where the torrid Nuggets will host the surging Mavericks.
Denver pounded the seventh-seeded Hornets, beating the spread in every game en route to a 4-1 series victory, including a 121-63 Game 4 wipeout in New Orleans that tied the NBA record for largest margin of victory in a playoff game. Denver finished things off with Wednesday’s 107-86 Game 5 rout as a 10-point home chalk.
The Nuggets’ lone loss to New Orleans was a tightly contested, 95-93 road setback in Game 3, but they still cashed as a 4½-point pup. The Nuggets averaged 108.4 ppg and allowed a stingy 84.2 ppg in the series, and their four wins came by an even more whopping average of 31 ppg (112.5-81.5). Carmelo Anthony (24.0 ppg) and Chauncey Billups (22.6 ppg) led the Nuggets in the first round, and Denver heads into the second round on an 18-4 SU tear (14-8 ATS).
Dallas knocked out the third-seeded Spurs, stealing home-court advantage with a 105-97 Game 1 win as a four-point road underdog. The Mavs dropped Game 2, then won and cashed in the last three games of the series, including Tuesday’s 106-93 road victory as a five-point ‘dog to close it out.
The Mavericks averaged 96.4 ppg against San Antonio, a few points below their season average of 101.4, but they held the Spurs to just 90.4 ppg, seven points below San Antonio’s season average. Dallas’ four wins came by eight points or more, with Dirk Nowitzki (19.2 ppg) and Josh Howard (18.8 ppg) leading the way. The Mavs are on an 11-3 SU run (9-5 ATS) in their last 14 starts.
Denver is 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight meetings with Dallas, including 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) this season. The Nuggets won three of those four games by a combined total of seven points, including a 103-101 road win catching 3½ points in their most recent battle on March 27. Denver is 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at the Pepsi Center, but the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the road team has cashed in five of the last seven clashes.
The Nuggets are 36-8 SU (26-17-1 ATS) at home this year, and Dallas is 20-24 SU (23-21 ATS) on the road.
Coming off their 5-0 ATS run against New Orleans, the Nuggets are on pointspread rolls of 13-4 overall, 13-3 against the Western Conference, 12-3 against winning teams, 7-1 as a favorite, 7-0 against the Southwest Division and 4-0 on their home court. The Mavericks are also on several ATS upswings, including 5-1 overall, 17-5 as a playoff pup, 6-1 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 4-1 after a SU win and 5-2 in second-round playoff games.
The over is on streaks of 8-3 for Denver at home (all as a chalk), 5-0 for Dallas on the road, 7-1 with the Mavs as a playoff pup and 20-8 for Dallas in second-round playoff games. However, the under hit in the last three games of the Nuggets-Hornets series and is 5-2 in Denver’s last seven starts, and the under for Dallas is 61-29 in its last 90 games against Northwest Division opponents.
Finally, the under is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings in this rivalry, with the last three in a row staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
