CK/wangichu's Think Tank

[cocknocker]

All that I know is that if Cleveland is down or tied at the half and the 2nd half line is anything like Cleveland-5.5 or 6 I am going to pound Cleveland again

[cocknocker]

Ok wang is taking Dallas and I'm gonna ride with him on it! Dallas-2

[melincrea]

All that I know is that if Cleveland is down or tied at the half and the 2nd half line is anything like Cleveland-5.5 or 6 I am going to pound Cleveland again

Cle -6, pounding that?

[SexyMit]

Only up 2 so that would have given you a better line of Cleveland -8. Vegas trap not even covering the spread of originally 10 so everyone is going to take the -6, I think they win but only by 5 at the most and then Vegas racks up, just my opinion. Oh crap this isn't my thread sorry CK!

[cocknocker]

yes i did!

wang, PC Play on Lakers-12 tomorrow. Better get it after the game goes off. In order for Vegas to make a shit load of money tomorrow what would have to happen? Orlando would have to win that game. And why not? They are one of the best road teams in the NBA for a reason. I have a very heavy lean on Orlando+2.5 or more homes. It's the play of the playoffs. You're gonna have to do some serious talking to get me off of this one.

[melincrea]

yes i did!

wang, PC Play on Lakers-12 tomorrow. Better get it after the game goes off. In order for Vegas to make a shit load of money tomorrow what would have to happen? Orlando would have to win that game. And why not? They are one of the best road teams in the NBA for a reason. I have a very heavy lean on Orlando+2.5 or more homes. It's the play of the playoffs. You're gonna have to do some serious talking to get me off of this one.

Ah, 2nd half just started.. late now.. oh well, if your ticket cashes, my Cle -8 game ticket cashes! Good luck.

[isiah121]

CK, the OVER line for the Nuggets/Mavericks game has came from 10.5 back to 9.5? Aren't you concern? Will the OVER still be the correct play?

[laxdjock]

yes i did!

....PC Play on Lakers-12 tomorrow.

Really?

Damn....LAL has BURNED me twice.

I'm going to ride that ORL line though.

[suckatmyjob]

man against you guys again on today's play this line didnt it open Denver -1 and now Dallas -2.5?

Denver and under for me but not too much just a little sprinkle

[Dexter]

We had a text thing going today Dexter. We're cool. He hasn't come out all the way and said that he wants to take Dallas, but we'll see. It starting to look like it will be a play....I just hit him now to see what he wants to do...

no - the baseball tournament. tell him we started today.

no big deal....just tell him we're under way

[cocknocker]

Alright, we got the Dallas over 210 HEAVY play, wang!

[KingKing]

Ck, I cant thank you enough for that OVER winner! crushed the books. much appreciatedalso thanks for the cavs play. bought a couple points per your advice so thats much appreciated as well!

[Abrcrom12]

I'm HEAVY on the LA -12.
How you feelin' on Orl +2.5?

I know CK mentioned he's feelin' it hard. How hard??

[cocknocker]

I will make my PC Play at Lakers-8.5 or 8 with a 3 point buy. The line will go down to 11.5 or 11

Also teasing Orlando and Lakers with 4 points right before gametime

[peeiempee]

CK you feel okay with lakers -11.5?

[k22t]

I took LA -7 1st h -115 and LA -11.5 -116 for a large amount...hope fully it pulls through.. GL

[cocknocker]

Okay wang, the Celtics came out at -3.5 at the LVSC on 5/11/09 10:03am with a moneyline of -145/+125. Now the line is down to 2.5 -125/+105 on some books with only 30% of the money on the Magic. I am all over this one. Hit me back in the morning.

Orlando+2.5 It's a sharp play

The line will have to go back up a bit, but it won't get back to 3.5. I say watch it and see what happens over night. if it ever goes to 4, I am banging this one good

[MarkHammond]

Okay wang, the Celtics came out at -3.5 at the LVSC on 5/11/09 10:03am with a moneyline of -145/+125. Now the line is down to 2.5 -125/+105 on some books with only 30% of the money on the Magic. I am all over this one. Hit me back in the morning.

Orlando+2.5 It's a sharp play

CK u basing this strictly off of line movement but what about on teh court? Celtics come home fresh off a game winner and you think the jump shooting hit or miss magic gonna be hit tomorrow and be able to cover?

[cocknocker]

Also another interesting tidbit: With the Mavs having not covered for the 4th straight time in the playoffs they fall into a subset that is incredible if the Denver line is over 9.5 for the next game. Believe it or not, Dallas will be the play in the next game.

[corona]

Also another interesting tidbit: With the Mavs having not covered for the 4th straight time in the playoffs they fall into a subset that is incredible if the Denver line is over 9.5 for the next game. Believe it or not, Dallas will be the play in the next game.

can you explain the reasoning, or reveal the stat?

from what i can find, teams that have lost 4 straight ats, and are facing a line of +9.5 or more are 1-6 ats and 1-6 su in the playoffs since '03

and new orleans is one of those teams. and denver smoked them by 21, just 2 weeks back.

[cocknocker]

You forgot to add in teams with a streak of covers similar to Denvers' streak after a straight up loss with a cover. There's two sides to every coin when you do your research

[cocknocker]

Matter of fact to take it one step further, Dallas + ANYTHING first half is another good play as well

[corona]

You forgot to add in teams with a streak of covers similar to Denvers' streak after a straight up loss with a cover. There's two sides to every coin when you do your research

whats the sample size?
in the last 6 years there's a pretty limited number of teams that have 4+ streaks of not covering in the playoffs, and a limited number of teams covering 6+ consecutive games (i think denvers actually 9-0 or 8-0-1 this postseason). there cant be that many overlapping, and i'd be hesitant to draw too large a conclusion on a handful of games.

i'm not doubting your research that much, i know you're rep and that you're not pulling stuff out your ass, i just can't find what you're seeing. maybe i need to go back further than 6 years (though i dont know how).

[cocknocker]

This play is a diamond because it is so rare, corona. Fire up the search engine. And yes I am basing my play off of only a handful of plays because this situation doesn't happen very often. Just because it doesn't come up too often doesn't mean it's not effective when it does. Dallas is the play, cuzz.

[peterpan19]

ck
still on Lakers -7 1st half big ?

[wangichu]

yes i did!

wang, PC Play on Lakers-12 tomorrow. Better get it after the game goes off. In order for Vegas to make a shit load of money tomorrow what would have to happen? Orlando would have to win that game. And why not? They are one of the best road teams in the NBA for a reason. I have a very heavy lean on Orlando+2.5 or more homes. It's the play of the playoffs. You're gonna have to do some serious talking to get me off of this one.

no need whatsoever, i fully support and enorse both of those plays. I saw a little RLM on the magic to start. Furthermore, there's something to be said about the way that the lines are dropping at each respective home. Orlando has been laying 5 at home, while catching only 3 or less on the road. Even though the celtics almost lost, that was a game they controlled. Magic wire to wire.

ORL 1st half
ORL +2.5

[isiah121]

What do you guys think of Orlando/Celtics UNDER 96.5 1st half? I believe 3/4 of the last 4 games went under.

[Vreston]

I will make my PC Play at Lakers-8.5 or 8 with a 3 point buy. The line will go down to 11.5 or 11

Also teasing Orlando and Lakers with 4 points right before gametime

CK your PC play is Lakers -8.5, but since I can't buy points at my book would you still consider it a PC play at -12???
Waiting for your opinion.
Thanks a lot!

[BL]

Denver -7,5 line just released

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

oh not cool.

the guy at college who takes bets just screwed me out of over 1 grand. i got in early and put some on the denver/dallas over. went to get paid last night but the bastard said it was a loss. dammit. i was so sure of the total, placed a heap of my money on it but the prick did pay up!


I'm on your Orlando and Lakers play today CK but won't be playing much as the dude just pretty much robbed me! definitely sticking to online books now instead of the usc bookie.

[cocknocker]

You need to kick his ass oBaMa MaNiA. That game went WAY over the total. That guy is just stiffing you.

[ebbearsfb1]

how was it a lost??? the over was 210

[cocknocker]

no need whatsoever, i fully support and enorse both of those plays. I saw a little RLM on the magic to start. Furthermore, there's something to be said about the way that the lines are dropping at each respective home. Orlando has been laying 5 at home, while catching only 3 or less on the road. Even though the celtics almost lost, that was a game they controlled. Magic wire to wire.

ORL 1st half
ORL +2.5

Very well then, we will wait on it until 2:30 and then make the play. I still want to watch the line and get a good idea about what's goin gon wit hit, but it's all systems go on a play on the Magic for the game for sure! Not quite so sure on the 1st half though. We are getting toward the end of our picks so we need to be judicious in what we play.

I am also waiting my Lakers plays out, although there is no way that i don't play both of those! I'm trying to see if the line will go back down to 11.5 for us naturally.

[cocknocker]

CK your PC play is Lakers -8.5, but since I can't buy points at my book would you still consider it a PC play at -12???
Waiting for your opinion.
Thanks a lot!

Yes, it is still a VERY strong play. You may want to consider getting a new bookafter the season. It is very essential to have the ability to buy points in the playoffs.

[cocknocker]

ck
still on Lakers -7 1st half big ?

Yes with brass knuckles, I just haven't played it yet