Leans for 28 April from "Words about Playoffs Basketball"

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Progress Report
Sunday 2-4
Monday 5-1

1. Automatically fade any team that has scored 100 or more points in two straight games
*Fade Boston (o100 -> 4 staight games)

2. Automatically take the under for the team total for any team thathas scored 100 or more points in two straight games.
*Play Boston Team Total UNDER ( o100 -> 4 straight games)

3. Take the 1st quarter of any team that is down by any margin in a series when the teams shift to another city.
*Play San Antonio 1Q +points (down 1-3)
*Play Portland 1Q +points (they're down 1-3)

4. [LT]If you are taking the underdog, buy 3 points but ONLY at -170 (for +EV) for underdogs of +5 to +8 points.
*If playing Chicago, buy 3 points (only up to -170)
*If playing Houston, buy 3 points (only up to -170)
*If playing Dallas, buy 3 points (only up to -170)

5. [LT]If you are taking a favorite of -8 to -10 buy 3 points but ONLY at -170 (for +EV )assuming you can buy the 3 points at that number of vigorish.
*If playing Orlando, buy 3 points (only up to -170)

6. Do not fade the Celtics at home as long as they are in the playoffs. It is monetary suicide to go against their referees.
*Error with number 1.

7. Always take Dwight Howards' props for rebounds and points.
*Play Howard prop o# (rebounds and points)

8. Fade any overtime winner in the following game.
*Fade Chicago

9. Automatically play the under after two straight overs, and automatically play the over after two straight unders
*Play Philly/Orlando OVER (Three straight unders)
*Play Houston/Portland OVER (Two straight unders)


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Here are yesterday's results.

Automatically fade any team that has scored 100 or more points in two straight games
(FADE MIAMI) WIN

Automatically take the under for the team total for any team thathas scored 100 or more points in two straight games.
(PICK: TEAM TOTAL UNDER MIAMI) WIN

Take the 1st quarter of any team that is down by any margin in a series when the teams shift to another city.
(PICK: UTAH 1Q) WIN

Play moneylines in games where the line is 3 points or less if you are taking the favorite.
(PICK: NO ML, if picking NO) ADVICE ONLY

Automatically play the under after two straight overs, and automatically play the over after two straight unders
(LA/UTAH OVER) LOSS

Only take a double digit spread of over 10 points if the team has a history of 65% or more this year of covering such spreads. You can check the results at Winning Edge.com by going to the schedules by team and charting the numbers.
(LA NO PLAY, 13-15 ATS >10) WIN

Never take the Lakers as a double digit favorite in the playoffs, unless they are playing Denver which won't happen. But also don't wager against them either. Take their moneyline if the line is -330 or less.
(LA NO PLAY) WIN

[HoulihansTX]

9. Automatically play the under after two straight overs, and automatically play the over after two straight unders
*Play Philly/Orlando OVER (Three straight unders)
*Play Houston/Portland OVER (Two straight unders)

-Game 3 for the Magic/76ers went over

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Official Plays

1. Play UNDER Boston TEAM TOTAL
2. Play San Antonio 1Q -points
3. Play Portland 1Q -points
4. Play Howard prop o# (rebounds and points)
5. Play Philly/Orlando TOTAL OVER
6. Play Houston/Portland TOTAL OVER
#There is no action on the Boston/Chicago game, apart from the Boston TEAM TOTAL UNDER, as both teams are meant to be faded.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

9. Automatically play the under after two straight overs, and automatically play the over after two straight unders
*Play Philly/Orlando OVER (Three straight unders)
*Play Houston/Portland OVER (Two straight unders)

-Game 3 for the Magic/76ers went over

Here's what I was looking at from bigguy.com


PHILADELPHIA: HEAD 2 HEAD
Date Opponent Score Line ATS OU
Apr 26, 2009 ORLANDO 81-84(L)+4.5 W(1.5)192/U
Apr 24, 2009 ORLANDO 96-94(W)+3.5 W(5.5)192.5/U
Apr 22, 2009 at ORLANDO 87-96(L)+10.5 W(1.5)192/U


Also found same sort of results on another service. chalkpartners

04/22/2009at OrlandoL 96 - 87W (10½)U (193)Recap
04/24/2009vs OrlandoW 96 - 94W (3½)U (192½)Recap
04/26/2009vs OrlandoL 84 - 81W (4½)U (192)Recap

[HoulihansTX]

I fcuked that up game 3 hit @ 190

[HoulihansTX]

Anyways, Game 4 would have been an over play. But that wouldnt have been correct, as the total dipped to all-time low for the series.

[HoulihansTX]

Check out the Rockets/Blazers trends though.

Totals
Game 1&2 Over ( Neither teams defense showed up, and Rockets got the blowout in Game 1)

Game 3&4 Under ( Hou at home has stalwart defense)

Spreads
All the games so far the underdog covered (Rockets got Game1&2, and Blazers Game3&4)

Houston +5.5 and the Over would be the plays if trends hold up

[Vreston]

I'm feeling pretty good after a good night. Went 3 for 3 finally.
Glad I faded Miami and spread. Took the under on that one. Sorry I didn't take the over LA first half though. Still early for me to decide on tonight's games.

[newbySingaporean]

3. Take the 1st quarter of any team that is down by any margin in a series when the teams shift to another city.

where did u get all this theory? you came out with urself?

[HoulihansTX]

3. Take the 1st quarter of any team that is down by any margin in a series when the teams shift to another city.

where did u get all this theory? you came out with urself?

Here you go

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-handicapping/167496-few-words-peoples-champ-about-playoff-basketball.html

[dennisback]

yeah im def. taking spurs -1.5 (projected) for 1Q, or maybe at least the ML. Parker comes out VERY strong in 1Q. Think thats gonna be my Play of the day.

[kaspbart]

1. Automatically fade any team that has scored 100 or more points in two straight games
*Fade Boston (o100 -> 4 staight games)

Hi, i would like to ask how this plays looks at more period time . sorry for my english. i hope you will understand what i have on my mind. i want to know how looks the stats and how often this kind of bet score thanks.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Hi, i would like to ask how this plays looks at more period time . sorry for my english. i hope you will understand what i have on my mind. i want to know how looks the stats and how often this kind of bet score thanks.

That's cool.

I think the peroid of time, looks at the paticular series on hand. So, when you advance from the first round of playoffs, you need to start from scratch with the numbers. Overs/Unders 0-0 and go from there.

Hope it makes sense, doubt it did!

[newbySingaporean]

wow thanks man. thats great stuffs. i like ur houston play anw.

[Mr. sure win]

nba sure picks... take it and win or ignore it and lose

dal -5.5
bos -4
orl -4
por -6

dallas will win game 5. thers no way spurs will win this game. tony parker can dominate any defenders scoring 40+ points but he cant take over and give his team a win. he needs to trust his teammates first. remember basketball is a 5v5 not 1v5.

boston will definitely win this game. they are defending champs. chicago can win ots only but boston can take this on a blowout game. trust me i am mr sure win

orlando is an easy pick. its time to take care of business. a win in game 4 gives them the momentum and will most likely take game 5 a blowout game. sorry for the philly fans but philly can only win by luck. in games 1 to 4 orlando is not playing their best basketball. but with just 2 games away from advancing thers no room for another mistakes. im pretty sure that orlando will give a mesage to everyone. remember they have SUPERMAN!

portland will most likely win by a margin of 10max. this is just a close fight but im taking my chances of portland. i just think that houston wil finish it at home not in portland. give some respect!

[pho3nix32]

nice job summarizing the "word" obama

[joanapoker]

very nice job indeed

[peeiempee]

9. Automatically play the under after two straight overs, and automatically play the over after two straight unders
*Play Philly/Orlando OVER (Three straight unders)
*Play Houston/Portland OVER (Two straight unders)

-Game 3 for the Magic/76ers went over

Play Pistons/Cavs OVER (2 straight unders) went under game 4

[HoulihansTX]

Play Pistons/Cavs OVER (2 straight unders) went under game 4

I made a mistake, bro. meant to edit it out

[NBA Hero]

too bad i didnt fade mia

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Official Plays

1. Play UNDER Boston TEAM TOTAL
2. Play San Antonio 1Q -points
3. Play Portland 1Q -points
4. Play Howard prop o# (rebounds and points)
5. Play Philly/Orlando TOTAL OVER
6. Play Houston/Portland TOTAL OVER
#There is no action on the Boston/Chicago game, apart from the Boston TEAM TOTAL UNDER, as both teams are meant to be faded.

1. Boston Team Total u103
2. Play San Antonio 1Q -1.5
3. Play Portland 1Q -1.5
4. Dwight Howard o37 (rebounds + points)
5. Play Philly/Orlando o188
6. Play Houston/Portland o182.5

GL.

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Haha snap.

Gonna be a 1-2 start.

Over not gonna hit in the Philly/Orlando game and the Boston team total is bound to go over 103 now with OT. Dwight Howard has more than 40 so far for the (points + rebounds).