NBA Trend Tracking (Random)

[THam12]

I wanna track this for my own information. So don't take into account much of what I put in here lol.

I noticed a few things in lines and movement and public love in NBA.
Wanna see if there's a trend in NBA on lines of 5 or under, with a higher % of bets one way, with the line moving in favor of higher % team and that team not covering.


Soooo for example tonight:
Cavs were -4, 52% on OKC, line to -2, cavs cover. So public fade 1-0

And... Toronto -1.5, 68% on tor, line moved to -2.5, Char covered. 2-0

Again, I just needed somewhere to track this information.

[THam12]

Alot of games that are meeting the line requirement for what I wanna see tomorrow. Will look into it more as day goes on to see where public $ is and where lines go.

[KRIT]

You should set a bar for what you consider public money. IMO 52% is not public money. That is not significant enough. All those sites differ by much more than 2% anyways. I'd say 65%-70% and more is public. Curious to see what you find, gl on the experiment THam.

[THam12]

You should set a bar for what you consider public money. IMO 52% is not public money. That is not significant enough. All those sites differ by much more than 2% anyways. I'd say 65%-70% and more is public. Curious to see what you find, gl on the experiment THam.

I agree krit. But tonight (just for my idea to pop in my head) it felt as if noone thought cavs so I used it as first example.
From here on out I wanna see 60% or more.

[THam12]

Dogs ML also 1-0. Charlotte
Wanna track that as well.


One I remember was LAC was at BUlls and were favorited, public loved clips, bulls won outright

[Aye J Mac]

all favorites been covering this couple of days!

[THam12]

So something I'm looking at with this as well is home vs away.

So last night in this situation, the home team covered both.

[THam12]

Im gonna add this:
Im looking at the line to either move in favor of team with higher % on them, not move either way, or only move .5 against.

[THam12]

So for December 18:

1) New york opened at -5.5. 85% is on them. Line to -6.5 so far.
So philly would be the bet.

2) Sac opened -1.5. 66% on Sac. Line to -2.5 so far.
So minny would be the bet.

These are ones whose line hasn't move in favor, but has stayed same or gone just .5 against.
3) CHI opened at -4.5. 75% on CHI. Line still -4.
So Detroit would be bet.

4) Dallas open -3. 65% on dal. Line -2.5.
So Memphis would be play.

5) PHX open -4. 60% on them. -3.5 line.
So NOP would be play.



So I will monitor these today.
Portland could slide into this as they opened +6 and are now +4.5. But only 54% has been on them so it hasn't hit 60% threshold

[KRIT]

So for December 18:

1) New york opened at -5.5. 85% is on them. Line to -6.5 so far.
So philly would be the bet.

2) Sac opened -1.5. 66% on Sac. Line to -2.5 so far.
So minny would be the bet.

These are ones whose line hasn't move in favor, but has stayed same or gone just .5 against.
3) CHI opened at -4.5. 75% on CHI. Line still -4.
So Detroit would be bet.

4) Dallas open -3. 65% on dal. Line -2.5.
So Memphis would be play.

5) PHX open -4. 60% on them. -3.5 line.
So NOP would be play.



So I will monitor these today.
Portland could slide into this as they opened +6 and are now +4.5. But only 54% has been on them so it hasn't hit 60% threshold

I thought the line had to move in favor of the public team? In case of Chicago, Dallas and PHX it moved against them, that would simply just be an RLM play. Kind of just looks like you are fading the public with lines of less than 5? Is that correct?

[THam12]

I thought the line had to move in favor of the public team? In case of Chicago, Dallas and PHX it moved against them, that would simply just be an RLM play. Kind of just looks like you are fading the public with lines of less than 5? Is that correct?

.5 isn't really enough to justify an RLM in my opinion.
So that's why I included those in first wave. I'm watching them to see more.

But yes, I wanna see the cover rate of fading a public team with line 5 pts or less (doesn't matter if public on fave of dog).

[THam12]

So like now, bulls moved a whole pt so I would not include it

[THam12]

The plays that would fit what I wanna see would be:
Philly +6.5
Minnesota +2.5


Lines that either stayed same OR didn't move more than .5 away from team:
Detroit +4 (line moved .5 away from CHI)
Memphis +2.5 (line moved .5 away from dal)
NOP (line moved .5 away from PHX)

I will track the bottom ones separately.

[NBA Maniac]

penetrate the Pelicans...
Suns will BLOW them.

[THam12]

OK so tonight in the actual plays, it was 1-1 on spread and then 1-1 on dog ML as minny won out right

So numbers ATS: 3-1
Dogs ML: 2-1
Home team: 3-1

(May have to just exclude philly from all of this cause they are too bad for words lol)

On the ones that I was watching that moved .5 or less AWAY from pub team:
1-2 ATS
1-2 dog ML

Detroit won outright.

Have a spreadsheet for this and will be tracking for a while.
Just curious as I stated before.

[Ballin24]

Good work. Interested in seeing the results.

[THam12]

Dec 19 plays :
Washington +2
Houston +2.5

[NBA Maniac]

penetrate the Pelicans...
Suns will BLOW them.

[THam12]

2-0 today with both ML dogs winning.

5-1 ATS
4-1 ML dogs

Early. But the trend is looking pretty spot on.
All teams have been home teams thus far and 5 of 6 bets have been on dogs.

[THam12]

Dec 20:
New Orleans +1

[THam12]

Overall: 6-1
Dogs ML: 5-1
Home: 5-1
Away: 1-0

[pilebuck13]

Interesting nice work

[Hudini]

Did I understand correctly! Your pick is on team against public and line direction? Example of last night. Public was on Denver and spread line move Denvers favor but your pick was on Pelicans?

[THam12]

Did I understand correctly! Your pick is on team against public and line direction? Example of last night. Public was on Denver and spread line move Denvers favor but your pick was on Pelicans?

Correct sir.
The qualifying factors:
1) spread 5 pts or fewer
2) 60% or more on one of the teams
3) line movement in "public" teams favor of atleast .5

Im also going to remove philly from qualifying. They are too bad to involve in any of these and I think may meet the factors more than I would like to include them.

[Hudini]

You dont have to move Philly. Spread will always be more then 5 pts

[THam12]

You dont have to move Philly. Spread will always be more then 5 pts

Loll they're the only loss that occurred thus far!

[THam12]

Right now its looking like:
Orlando
Charlotte
Phoenix
LAC

Plays will be decided at 3pm CT (approximately)

[THam12]

Orlando +3
Phoenix +4.5
LAC +2.5

(Charlotte no longer play as line did not move)

[KRAL]

Orlando +3 opened still +3
So there is no line movement

And houston -3 on now i think minimum line change should be 1 point on your factors list..

[THam12]

Orlando +3 opened still +3
So there is no line movement

And houston -3 on now i think minimum line change should be 1 point on your factors list..

I had that it opened at 1.5...

And for the movement, .5 is sufficient for me.

[KRAL]

I had that it opened at 1.5...

And for the movement, .5 is sufficient for me.

Charlotte would be bet?

[THam12]

Charlotte would be bet?

I am using SBROdds. They has opener at 3.5.

[THam12]

And now that I look at it, Orlando is not a play as it did open at 3.

So the official plays for December 21:
Phoenix +4.5
LAC +2

[THam12]

I am getting my % from sportsinsights. and the odds from SBROdds.

[KRAL]

Why charlotte no bet?