CK The People's Champ versus jgbgsox NBA Playoffs Challenge

[RoagBettor]

Rockets will get killed tonight. No way Yao and Scola shoot 100% from the field. Refs will call early fouls on Yao and take him right out of the game, which will frustrate him as is the norm.

This game will mirror the Spurs/Mavs last night.

[jgbgsox]

pick #6 clev -11

[G's pks]

[quote]YoungProfit;1765547]oh and to clarify. similar posts to that of 'the machine' would be very helpful. actual bet amounts instead of the word 'heavy' or 'crumb'.[/quote

I think cknocker is doing quite a bit better..


machine has been in a horrible slump...he went 4-18 ending his ncaa picks and his baseball picks single games are around 6-13, and parlays around 4-6... So if you are happy with 10-19...that is up to you...

One guy was in there crying he is going broke following machine..(think there are still 3 out of 50 left)but not smart enough to stop following him!

[wangichu]

while i think the jazz probably back door cover this game, i can't put money on them because that's most likely dependant on the jazz's ability to claw back or lakers getting sloppy, so i can't lay the wood on utah for the game, especially considering they haven't won a single game in LA over the last two years, consisting of 8 matchups, and the lakers win by an average of 11.4... right where that number sits, meaning the number is too accurate to be a solid play either way.

so here's what i got from lakertown... lakers and jazz have squared off 8 times now in the last 2 years including playoffs. Only twice have the jazz kept the game within 6 at half in those meetings, once last year and once this year, but both during the regular season and in both of those match ups, the jazz were riding the momentum of a blowout in the first game of a back to back (beating the warriors and clips by double digits respectively). So in games that the jazz are not riding momentum into los angeles to play the lakers, the lakers are a perfect 6-0 at covering the first half, even using this large number of 6.5 at half (largest half time number yet between these two teams), going into half with an average lead of 16.2 at half. The jazz have a tendency to start out slow on the road when not carrying in momentum, and the lakers, moreso this year than last year have been better at covering half time wagers at home, albeit struggling to maintain their leads late, likely getting too comfortable with their leads. I don't have numbers for these two independantly, but i'm comfortable with the numbers i found in their matchups over the last two years.

LAL -6.5 1st half

on the flip side, the jazz, coming out of the half in a hole, have responded, winning the 3Q by an average of 3.4 pts, or, throwing out the anomoly in which the did not cover a 3Q spread, 5 pts. (two games they lost the 3Q, but one was only by a point in reg season, the other was by 5 pts. (reg season), taking that one step further, in the 4 playoff matchups between these two teams, the jazz win the 3rd quarter every time, by an average of 6.5 pts. The current 3Q spread i'm seeing for the jazz is +2.5, which would have covered every playoff matchup and one of the two non-tainted reg season match ups between the 2.
(I threw out the 2 games where the jazz came in off momentum of a salt lake city blow out because they don't have that momentum here, and shouldn't be within a point at half). Lakers are the better team, but have proven time and time again that they cannot keep focused enough to hold their blowout leads, while the jazz have a long standing habit of digging themselves a hole early and at least making some progress late against any team in the league. So... as i will not be here for the game...

UTAH +2.5 (3Q) (smaller wager)

[RoagBettor]

It makes sense, but I keep thinking about that 41 pt 1Q the Jazz had recently. At some point against the Lakers they're going to have a good run.

[wangichu]

It makes sense, but I keep thinking about that 41 pt 1Q the Jazz had recently. At some point against the Lakers they're going to have a good run.

41 point 1Q against who? and as long as the lakers are such a superior team and the jazz can't bring their A game on the road i will fade them in the appropriate respect.

edit:

oh, in NO... they have the horny's number and without chandler, the hornets have very little size in the paint to stop boozer, millsap, and the d-train from having their way... lakers have bynum, gasol, odom, all with size and length advantages, as well as a defender at guard with comparable size to deron in shannon brown. The jazz just match up miles better against the horny's than any other playoff team except MAYBE the rockets who they have smacked around over the last couple years in the playoffs.

[RoagBettor]

It's the right call, good luck.

[wangichu]

CLE/DET... game 1 was the first time in this series that the number has gone over the number and the first time it has gone over 177 in cleveland. Detroit will shore up their defense at least a bit and hopefully keep the cavs under 94, while the cavs should be able to keep the pistons offense to a low total too... the east's teams play a defense first game and have a lot of unders between teams who predicate their games on defense as these two teams do and they have historically had a lot of low scoring matchups. I laid off the number in the first game because it was the lowest number offered for these two all season, but now that that game went over, i have to take the under since it's a little bit higher and set for a game in which a team is focused on upping their defensive effort.

Under 178

not much to say about portland except that they handle revenge games pretty well. The number dropped 2 points higher than the first game and the public was already all over the rockets after the game 1 blow out. The books have made one thing clear in portland home games: if you want portland money, you have to be willing to bet on bigger spreads, but they will cover them, specifically in revenge games.

POR -5.5

final card:

LAL -6.5 (1st half)
DET/CLE und 178
POR -5.5

smaller play on:

UTAH ML (3Q)* utah has won all four 3Qs... might as well take the ML money for a smaller play

[cocknocker]

I have updated my big board. I am getting some interesting emails fro mguys who don't want to go through all of the posts to find my picks. I am all the way up to pick #13 already so I am whittling away at my overall total that I need to play (25 plays). I will try to keep the big board updated from now on.

[jgbgsox]

pick # 7 houston +6

[Dexter]

But I will miss a whole week or so. I don't know the range on my phone yet, so if I can get my main man Dexter to post them for me, then I can text him with my plays. But that's in the future and not worth settling on yet. if I can text him and he answers then I may still be cool.

i cant promise that i will always be around to post. new job has me home not till 7-8 eastern some night.

[BmoreBucco]

NBA Prop of the day:

Cleveland is gonna roll tonight. When a defense pays attention to Lebron, Mo goes off.

Edit: Of course defenses pay attention to Lebron, I meant to say EXTRA EXTRA attention...

Mo Williams over 20.5 pts + assists

[Vreston]

NBA Prop of the day:

Cleveland is gonna roll tonight. When a defense pays attention to Lebron, Mo goes off.

Mo Williams over 20.5 pts + assists

My book only offer that Mo Williams will score over/under 17.5 (just points). Do you suggest going over or under on this one (without assists included)?
Thanks.

[isiah121]

My book has Detroit -12 1/2. It went up 1 point, but 81% betters are on the Cavs. Shouldn't Detroit be the play? Also, the TOTAL line for Detroit/Cleveland went from 178 to 179. Is the UNDER still the play?

[BmoreBucco]

My book only offer that Mo Williams will score over/under 17.5 (just points). Do you suggest going over or under on this one (without assists included)?
Thanks.

Sorry brother, I just got back to the thread. If it's of any value, I would have said pass on that line. I'm thinking Mo will get at least 6 assists and cover the rest of my line with points. Did you end up playing it?

[BmoreBucco]

BTW, how was the Cleveland line only 11? The overconfidence of that bet may bite me in the ass, but I really don't think so. A statement is being made tonight by the Cavs and it is "This is our house!"

[danrman]

i might be able to do the thread if enough interest is shown

[cs11787]

Det/Cle 2nd Half. u89 (-110). Cavs may not try to throw down an offensive powerhouse 2nd half but they will keep up the defensive pressure. Game 1 Cavs were also up by 12 (14 today) and the momentum in the 2nd half slowed down. 102 points were scored in the 1st half and only 84 in the 2nd.

[Dexter]

i might be able to do the thread if enough interest is shown

plenty of people are still interested..

we have enough people that like to post each day. like i said yesterday, any one of us can start the baseball thread each night.

i will in no way be posting in some of these other threads with all the immature trolls.

[Dexter]

tue 4/21-

lakers -11 (3x)

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Hey dex, dont you think that the Lakers will rest their better players later in the second half of the game and possible Utah cover?

I'm playing Houston/Blazers o182.5 Heavy (x4)

[Trixie]

Are you guys watching the Blazers/Rockets preshow on NBA TV? Charles Barkley has the reading capabilities of a three or four year old possum.

Actual conversation (reading their twitter comments, the person's name is FARRAH1228):

Barkley: Ok, so my man Ferrari says --
Other Guy: Umm... I think it's a chick...
Barkley: Oh, right, Ferrara says --
Other Guy: No, I think it's "Farrah"

He also takes four stabs at reading "Przybilla" and then just gives up...

[danrman]

plenty of people are still interested..

we have enough people that like to post each day. like i said yesterday, any one of us can start the baseball thread each night.

i will in no way be posting in some of these other threads with all the immature trolls.

amen to that brother

[Dexter]

lebron with the windmill - sick

[Dexter]

Hey dex, dont you think that the Lakers will rest their better players later in the second half of the game and possible Utah cover?

I'm playing Houston/Blazers o182.5 Heavy (x4)

i think the lakers are going to take care of business just as the cavs did tonight - la might be a team to just ride for a long time in the playoffs. they are so friggin deep, that even their reserves should be able to seperate the game vs the road weary jazz.

[BmoreBucco]

NBA Prop of the day:

Cleveland is gonna roll tonight. When a defense pays attention to Lebron, Mo goes off.

Edit: Of course defenses pay attention to Lebron, I meant to say EXTRA EXTRA attention...

Mo Williams over 20.5 pts + assists

Mo money Mo money

[Dexter]

Are you guys watching the Blazers/Rockets preshow on NBA TV? Charles Barkley has the reading capabilities of a three or four year old possum.

Actual conversation (reading their twitter comments, the person's name is FARRAH1228):

Barkley: Ok, so my man Ferrari says --
Other Guy: Umm... I think it's a chick...
Barkley: Oh, right, Ferrara says --
Other Guy: No, I think it's "Farrah"

He also takes four stabs at reading "Przybilla" and then just gives up...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iGT08DTk3NM

rice of passage

pelaties

does do look good

and my favorite - blowed out!

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Nice hit Bucco!

Cheers Dex! Definitely think the Lakers outclass the Jazz, I've got them for the half! GL dude

[BmoreBucco]

V. Martinez homered to deep right, M. DeRosa scored

Go ahead Victor! RL back in business.

Edit: my bad, I'm going back and forth with mlb thread and here...

Not only that, Kerry Wood gives up the 2 run bomb. RL sad...

[Trixie]

"Rice of passage" is clearly the winner!

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Just got the under cover in the Cavs game.

Is Miami the play tomorrow? No line movement and 80% of people are with Atlanta.

[LVD09]

Hey dex, dont you think that the Lakers will rest their better players later in the second half of the game and possible Utah cover?

I'm playing Houston/Blazers o182.5 Heavy (x4)

Phil was upset that they blew a 20point lead in the last game. if anything i think the lakers will pound the gas tonight. well hopefully.. Lakers -12

i'm not our friend dex tho haha just sharing my two cents. peace

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Is Miami the play tomorrow? No line movement and 80% of people are with Atlanta.

Also, loving the Bulls ML @ -130.

[Dexter]

"Rice of passage" is clearly the winner!

thats so funny....i was crying the first time i saw that

the jazz are gonna get blowed out at staples!

[cocknocker]

Non-Challenge pick.

Utah +2.5 2nd half Game 2