Rockets, Mavericks meet in crucial season finale
And so it comes down to the final game of the season for the Rockets, Mavericks and the Western Conference playoff seeding. A win for Yao Ming and Houston could push the Bayou City Ballers as high as the No. 2 slot in the playoffs and a loss could sink them as low as fifth. For Dallas, a win could inch them up to the No. 6 seed. Then again, maybe this is just a first round preview for the Lone Star State squads.
The 2008-09 NBA regular season is over – for the L.A. Lakers and the Jazz. Everybody else has to play Wednesday, including the Houston Rockets (53-28 SU, 40-40-1 ATS) and the Dallas Mavericks (49-32 SU, 39-42 ATS). Both of these Texas rivals have something at stake in the outcome. The Rockets can move up as high as No. 2 in the Western Conference with a win, or finish as low as No. 5 with a loss. The Mavericks can move up from seventh to sixth.
The fight over playoff seeding should make this matchup attractive for handicappers. Other teams are going to be playing their second- and third-stringers all day long, which can also be a great betting opportunity if you’ve been doing your homework and getting to know these reserves. But Houston and Dallas will play for the win Wednesday night, which means we can use our regular betting strategies without adjusting for shenanigans.
This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Rockets and Mavericks. Houston came out ahead on two occasions, both SU and ATS, with the under getting to the pay window twice. The Rockets are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA at No. 4 in the efficiency charts with 101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Dallas is an average team at best at No. 17 with 105.5 points allowed.
There are some holes in those numbers that need to be addressed. These are not the same Rockets that played the Mavs in October and November. Instead of point guard Rafer Alston and swingman Tracy McGrady, it’s point guard Aaron Brooks and swingman Ron Artest in the starting backcourt. Houston is also getting capable work off the bench from guard Kyle Lowry (14.8 PER) to help compensate for McGrady’s season-ending knee surgery.
The Dallas roster has seen its own share of job turnover this year. The one game Dallas did win, Gerald Green (11.4 PER) and James Singleton (16.4 PER) were in the starting lineup because of injuries to Antoine Wright (8.6 PER) and Josh Howard (17.2 PER). The result: Mavericks 96, Rockets 86. Dallas was a 3-point road dog.
Not every team can afford the luxury of losing two starters. Wright is a project player – athletic and smart, but noticeably thin and green at this point in his career. Jose Juan Barea (13.5 PER) is getting more burn these days; in reality, most of the minutes at shooting guard come from off the bench, where Jason Terry (19.3 PER) is a strong candidate to win Sixth Man of the Year honors.
It’s a lot more difficult to replace what Howard offers the Mavericks – which disgruntled Dallas fans had to learn the hard way on Monday. It was Wright getting the start at small forward in place of Howard, who was resting his tender left ankle in the second of back-to-back contests. Wright had seven points and three rebounds in 34 minutes against the Timberwolves (+11½), and to his credit added three blocks to finish at plus-14 on the day. But Dallas was still very much lacking Howard’s energy in an uninspired 96-94 victory.
No need for alarm in Big D; according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Howard is expected to face the Rockets and be available for business as usual in the playoffs. That’ll put the Mavericks at close to full capacity – veterans Jerry Stackhouse and Devean George are possibly done for the season, but their contributions to the team in 2008-09 have already been greatly minimized due to injuries and Father Time.
Howard’s seen his public profile take a hit in recent years because of matters off the court, and he’s even more prone to being undervalued playing in the shadow of Dirk Nowitzki. There were no early betting odds for this matchup while the books waited to make sure who’s playing, but all things being equal, Dallas is a much more talented team with Howard and needs to be handicapped according.
And so it comes down to the final game of the season for the Rockets, Mavericks and the Western Conference playoff seeding. A win for Yao Ming and Houston could push the Bayou City Ballers as high as the No. 2 slot in the playoffs and a loss could sink them as low as fifth. For Dallas, a win could inch them up to the No. 6 seed. Then again, maybe this is just a first round preview for the Lone Star State squads.
The 2008-09 NBA regular season is over – for the L.A. Lakers and the Jazz. Everybody else has to play Wednesday, including the Houston Rockets (53-28 SU, 40-40-1 ATS) and the Dallas Mavericks (49-32 SU, 39-42 ATS). Both of these Texas rivals have something at stake in the outcome. The Rockets can move up as high as No. 2 in the Western Conference with a win, or finish as low as No. 5 with a loss. The Mavericks can move up from seventh to sixth.
The fight over playoff seeding should make this matchup attractive for handicappers. Other teams are going to be playing their second- and third-stringers all day long, which can also be a great betting opportunity if you’ve been doing your homework and getting to know these reserves. But Houston and Dallas will play for the win Wednesday night, which means we can use our regular betting strategies without adjusting for shenanigans.
This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Rockets and Mavericks. Houston came out ahead on two occasions, both SU and ATS, with the under getting to the pay window twice. The Rockets are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA at No. 4 in the efficiency charts with 101.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. Dallas is an average team at best at No. 17 with 105.5 points allowed.
There are some holes in those numbers that need to be addressed. These are not the same Rockets that played the Mavs in October and November. Instead of point guard Rafer Alston and swingman Tracy McGrady, it’s point guard Aaron Brooks and swingman Ron Artest in the starting backcourt. Houston is also getting capable work off the bench from guard Kyle Lowry (14.8 PER) to help compensate for McGrady’s season-ending knee surgery.
The Dallas roster has seen its own share of job turnover this year. The one game Dallas did win, Gerald Green (11.4 PER) and James Singleton (16.4 PER) were in the starting lineup because of injuries to Antoine Wright (8.6 PER) and Josh Howard (17.2 PER). The result: Mavericks 96, Rockets 86. Dallas was a 3-point road dog.
Not every team can afford the luxury of losing two starters. Wright is a project player – athletic and smart, but noticeably thin and green at this point in his career. Jose Juan Barea (13.5 PER) is getting more burn these days; in reality, most of the minutes at shooting guard come from off the bench, where Jason Terry (19.3 PER) is a strong candidate to win Sixth Man of the Year honors.
It’s a lot more difficult to replace what Howard offers the Mavericks – which disgruntled Dallas fans had to learn the hard way on Monday. It was Wright getting the start at small forward in place of Howard, who was resting his tender left ankle in the second of back-to-back contests. Wright had seven points and three rebounds in 34 minutes against the Timberwolves (+11½), and to his credit added three blocks to finish at plus-14 on the day. But Dallas was still very much lacking Howard’s energy in an uninspired 96-94 victory.
No need for alarm in Big D; according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Howard is expected to face the Rockets and be available for business as usual in the playoffs. That’ll put the Mavericks at close to full capacity – veterans Jerry Stackhouse and Devean George are possibly done for the season, but their contributions to the team in 2008-09 have already been greatly minimized due to injuries and Father Time.
Howard’s seen his public profile take a hit in recent years because of matters off the court, and he’s even more prone to being undervalued playing in the shadow of Dirk Nowitzki. There were no early betting odds for this matchup while the books waited to make sure who’s playing, but all things being equal, Dallas is a much more talented team with Howard and needs to be handicapped according.