Books were offering Warriors at +14 going into the fourth quarter

[No coincidences]

I continue to be amazed by the live lines these books throw out there.

Hell, I saw Golden State at +700 and +6.5 when they were only down 6 with 3+ minutes left.

[ChiLLx]

Holding +5.5 home dog up 20 points, at home, in a playoff game, in the 4th quarter. Only in the NBA.

[factor280]

I threw $25 on +1200 live. Sick value.... come on Ot.

[Seto]

I agree Golden State was an obvious/easy play (of course I stupidly didn't bet it which pisses me off immensely especially since I might lose Pelicans+5 which seems unreal) but books are never going to make a team more than -5.5 for a 12-minute stretch in this type of game. Never. Now is that a mistake is up for debate but it's just the way their "models" work.

[t-wizzle]

Can't we just appreciate an incredible comeback?

[No coincidences]

This is going to be the in-game bloodbath of all bloodbaths.

The books really should've just taken this game off the board when the Warriors started to come back.

[No coincidences]

I agree Golden State was an obvious/easy play (of course I stupidly didn't bet it which pisses me off immensely especially since I might lose Pelicans+5 which seems unreal) but books are never going to make a team more than -5.5 for a 12-minute stretch in this type of game. Never. Now is that a mistake is up for debate but it's just the way their "models" work.

+700 down 6 with 3 and change left is just plain stupid.

[ChiLLx]

NO is so done, unreal.

[t-wizzle]

FYI, the Pelicans were just +1100. Now they are within 1.

Here's the point - books make plenty of money on live wagering. You may think it's easy, but it's not.

[RavensFan2k3]

I continue to be amazed by the live lines these books throw out there.

Hell, I saw Golden State at +700 and +6.5 when they were only down 6 with 3+ minutes left.

please tell me you took it

[mackave]

I took GSW +820 when they were down by 8. Not bad.

[Seto]

FYI, the Pelicans were just +1100. Now they are within 1.

Here's the point - books make plenty of money on live wagering. You may think it's easy, but it's not.

Especially since live lines are typically juiced -120/-120 or so.

[No coincidences]

Especially since live lines are typically juiced -120/-120 or so.

Knowing the Warriors and the Pelicans -- an inferior team with zero playoff experience and a penchant for choking -- how in god's name can you offer the Warriors in the +6-900 range when it's 2-3 possession game and there's still 3 minutes left?

[t-wizzle]

Especially since live lines are typically juiced -120/-120 or so.

Bingo. I see no coin make these threads all the time after the fact. His whole point is how easy it is to make money live betting. Well why isn't he doing it? Because it's not easy.

Tonight was a rare game and an incredible comeback. This shit doesn't happen all the time. Let's just sit back and appreciate what we just watched because it was some great theater.

[KRIT]

Ugh I wish I took Warriors ml live.

[paco]

Knowing the Warriors and the Pelicans -- an inferior team with zero playoff experience and a penchant for choking -- how in god's name can you offer the Warriors in the +6-900 range when it's 2-3 possession game and there's still 3 minutes left?

think the whole thread wants to know if u took the + live ml with Ur arguement of how could they put it up

[No coincidences]

think the whole thread wants to know if u took the + live ml with Ur arguement of how could they put it up

Not ML, but got them at +11.5 early in the 4th.

I tried taking the ML live when it was +700, but wasn't quick enough. In an even game between two equal teams, the odds are remote and not even worth a look. But again, given the teams playing and their respective histories, I'm not sure how you could throw that kind of number up live with so much time left.

[Seto]

Knowing the Warriors and the Pelicans -- an inferior team with zero playoff experience and a penchant for choking -- how in god's name can you offer the Warriors in the +6-900 range when it's 2-3 possession game and there's still 3 minutes left?

I know it sounds like a dumb line but remember these lines are made based on math models and not based on feel. It's a pretty standard thing.

Hell one book had Thunder +3300 against the Clippers in the first game of the season down 6 or 7 points with 4 minutes to go. The Thunder hit 2 threes and the line went down to about +200. In 3 or 4 possessions. These live lines move very fast because one possession affects so much in their models at that point in the game.

[No coincidences]

I know it sounds like a dumb line but remember these lines are made based on math models and not based on feel. It's a pretty standard thing.

Hell one book had Thunder +3300 against the Clippers in the first game of the season down 6 or 7 points with 4 minutes to go. The Thunder hit 2 threes and the line went down to about +200. In 3 or 4 possessions. These live lines move very fast because one possession affects so much in their models at that point in the game.

Aren't the teams playing taken into consideration though? In other words, are the Warriors given the same odds facing the same deficit at the same point in time vs. the Pelicans as New Orleans would receive if the roles were reversed?

[paco]

Not ML, but got them at +11.5 early in the 4th.

I tried taking the ML live when it was +700, but wasn't quick enough. In an even game between two equal teams, the odds are remote and not even worth a look. But again, given the teams playing and their respective histories, I'm not sure how you could throw that kind of number up live with so much time left.

Good cash

[No coincidences]

Good cash

Thanks, but the ML would've been a whole lot sweeter. To be honest, I hesitated because it didn't make any sense to me that they were offering that number. It still doesn't.

[Seto]

Aren't the teams playing taken into consideration though? In other words, are the Warriors given the same odds facing the same deficit at the same point in time vs. the Pelicans as New Orleans would receive if the roles were reversed?

Late in the game less so. Still a bit though. Let's put it this way: the line for OT was probably something like Warriors -165 Pelicans +140 right? That gives you more or less an idea of how different the books evaluate the teams late in a game.

So in that same situation New Orleans would've probably been about +900 instead of +600.

But they don't take into account whether a team chokes or not though. Same in tennis for instance. Everything live is pretty much based on a pre-game line and what the line would be if the match was tied at that particular instant.

So if you have a -110/-110 pre-game line between a guy who's a talented player but a notorious choker and a guy who's a gritty player who's "solid", the comeback lines will be the same for both players no matter who's down.

[No coincidences]

Late in the game less so. Still a bit though. Let's put it this way: the line for OT was probably something like Warriors -165 Pelicans +140 right? That gives you more or less an idea of how different the books evaluate the teams late in a game.

So in that same situation New Orleans would've probably been about +900 instead of +600.

But they don't take into account whether a team chokes or not though. Same in tennis for instance. Everything live is pretty much based on a pre-game line and what the line would be if the match was tied at that particular instant.

So if you have a -110/-110 pre-game line between a guy who's a talented player but a notorious choker and a guy who's a gritty player who's "solid", the comeback lines will be the same for both players no matter who's down.

I guess it has to be a computer-generated formula, given how quickly the books need to post a number. That's why they should just take the ML off the board in a situation like this, where you have a superior, clutch team facing a No. 8 seed full of gagging choke artists (not the first big comeback for Golden State, or the first horrific implosion by NOLA).

[Seto]

I guess it has to be a computer-generated formula, given how quickly the books need to post a number. That's why they should just take the ML off the board in a situation like this, where you have a superior, clutch team facing a No. 8 seed full of gagging choke artists (not the first big comeback for Golden State, or the first horrific implosion by NOLA).

I agree they probably should take the ML off the board. I would just close everything once the game gets to the last 5 or 6 minutes. Too many things can change in 1 play. But they're leaving it out there so they must have a reason. We just have to find a way to judge if we can profit on those plays or not.

Yup it's obviously all computer generated.

[No coincidences]

I agree they probably should take the ML off the board. I would just close everything once the game gets to the last 5 or 6 minutes. Too many things can change in 1 play. But they're leaving it out there so they must have a reason. We just have to find a way to judge if we can profit on those plays or not.

Yup it's obviously all computer generated.

You watch the NBA. You've seen the Pelicans do this a million times. They're notorious for it.

[Seto]

You watch the NBA. You've seen the Pelicans do this a million times. They're notorious for it.

Well yeah they did it just a week ago against the Spurs. They did it against the Cavs early in the season. There are probably more. They're notorious for leading by 20 early in the 4th and letting the game get close.

One of my first major cashes in the NBA was Lakers live +1125 against the New Orleans Hornets in 2012/13 when they were down 20+. Obviously a much different New Orleans team but maybe it's in the franchise's genes or something. lol.

[sballen]

I grabbed them at +11.5 and then watched the spead climb to +14.5 but was lucky enough to also thow some on Moneyline at +285 and +750. I saw their moneyline odds get up to +1200 at one point lol....but in all honesty that comeback was crazy lucky and the pelicans had a meltdown.

[No coincidences]

Well yeah they did it just a week ago against the Spurs. They did it against the Cavs early in the season. There are probably more. They're notorious for leading by 20 early in the 4th and letting the game get close.

One of my first major cashes in the NBA was Lakers live +1125 against the New Orleans Hornets in 2012/13 when they were down 20+. Obviously a much different New Orleans team but maybe it's in the franchise's genes or something. lol.

Exactly.

[No coincidences]

I grabbed them at +11.5 and then watched the spead climb to +14.5 but was lucky enough to also thow some on Moneyline at +285 and +750. I saw their moneyline odds get up to +1200 at one point lol....but in all honesty that comeback was crazy lucky and the pelicans had a meltdown.

I keep seeing this comment. I don't get it. Luck had very little to do with it. NOLA earned that loss.

[JameisBrady]

I threw $25 on +1200 live. Sick value.... come on Ot.

put 80 on it myself

Win4/23/15 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9737 Golden State Warriors +1280* <small>vs</small> New Orleans Pelicans

[JameisBrady]

Guys, live betting is where it's at. True, this game was an aberration of sorts but in most NBA games one team will be a favorite at one point in the game and a dog later. very easy to make money if you pay attention to the live lines.

Loss4/23/15 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9738 New Orleans Pelicans +1350* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors

^took that for the same amount when they were down 6 in OT.

[Romerowned]

They usually juice the hell out of those live lines.