Books were offering Warriors at +14 going into the fourth quarter

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Books were offering Warriors at +14 going into the fourth quarter
    I continue to be amazed by the live lines these books throw out there.

    Hell, I saw Golden State at +700 and +6.5 when they were only down 6 with 3+ minutes left.

  • ChiLLx
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-24-11
    • 5412

    #2
    Holding +5.5 home dog up 20 points, at home, in a playoff game, in the 4th quarter. Only in the NBA.
    Comment
    • factor280
      SBR High Roller
      • 01-20-13
      • 131

      #3
      I threw $25 on +1200 live. Sick value.... come on Ot.
      Comment
      • Seto
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 12-16-11
        • 12906

        #4
        I agree Golden State was an obvious/easy play (of course I stupidly didn't bet it which pisses me off immensely especially since I might lose Pelicans+5 which seems unreal) but books are never going to make a team more than -5.5 for a 12-minute stretch in this type of game. Never. Now is that a mistake is up for debate but it's just the way their "models" work.
        Comment
        • t-wizzle
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-18-09
          • 38099

          #5
          Can't we just appreciate an incredible comeback?
          Comment
          • No coincidences
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-18-10
            • 76300

            #6
            This is going to be the in-game bloodbath of all bloodbaths.

            The books really should've just taken this game off the board when the Warriors started to come back.
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Originally posted by Seto
              I agree Golden State was an obvious/easy play (of course I stupidly didn't bet it which pisses me off immensely especially since I might lose Pelicans+5 which seems unreal) but books are never going to make a team more than -5.5 for a 12-minute stretch in this type of game. Never. Now is that a mistake is up for debate but it's just the way their "models" work.
              +700 down 6 with 3 and change left is just plain stupid.
              Comment
              • ChiLLx
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 12-24-11
                • 5412

                #8
                NO is so done, unreal.
                Comment
                • t-wizzle
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-18-09
                  • 38099

                  #9
                  FYI, the Pelicans were just +1100. Now they are within 1.

                  Here's the point - books make plenty of money on live wagering. You may think it's easy, but it's not.
                  Comment
                  • RavensFan2k3
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-18-12
                    • 17378

                    #10
                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                    I continue to be amazed by the live lines these books throw out there.

                    Hell, I saw Golden State at +700 and +6.5 when they were only down 6 with 3+ minutes left.

                    please tell me you took it
                    Comment
                    • mackave
                      SBR MVP
                      • 03-22-14
                      • 4979

                      #11
                      I took GSW +820 when they were down by 8. Not bad.
                      Comment
                      • Seto
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-16-11
                        • 12906

                        #12
                        Originally posted by t-wizzle
                        FYI, the Pelicans were just +1100. Now they are within 1.

                        Here's the point - books make plenty of money on live wagering. You may think it's easy, but it's not.
                        Especially since live lines are typically juiced -120/-120 or so.
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Seto
                          Especially since live lines are typically juiced -120/-120 or so.
                          Knowing the Warriors and the Pelicans -- an inferior team with zero playoff experience and a penchant for choking -- how in god's name can you offer the Warriors in the +6-900 range when it's 2-3 possession game and there's still 3 minutes left?
                          Comment
                          • t-wizzle
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-18-09
                            • 38099

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Seto
                            Especially since live lines are typically juiced -120/-120 or so.

                            Bingo. I see no coin make these threads all the time after the fact. His whole point is how easy it is to make money live betting. Well why isn't he doing it? Because it's not easy.

                            Tonight was a rare game and an incredible comeback. This shit doesn't happen all the time. Let's just sit back and appreciate what we just watched because it was some great theater.
                            Comment
                            • KRIT
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-11-14
                              • 12884

                              #15
                              Ugh I wish I took Warriors ml live.
                              Comment
                              • paco
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 05-07-09
                                • 62873

                                #16
                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                Knowing the Warriors and the Pelicans -- an inferior team with zero playoff experience and a penchant for choking -- how in god's name can you offer the Warriors in the +6-900 range when it's 2-3 possession game and there's still 3 minutes left?
                                think the whole thread wants to know if u took the + live ml with Ur arguement of how could they put it up
                                Comment
                                • No coincidences
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 76300

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by paco
                                  think the whole thread wants to know if u took the + live ml with Ur arguement of how could they put it up
                                  Not ML, but got them at +11.5 early in the 4th.

                                  I tried taking the ML live when it was +700, but wasn't quick enough. In an even game between two equal teams, the odds are remote and not even worth a look. But again, given the teams playing and their respective histories, I'm not sure how you could throw that kind of number up live with so much time left.
                                  Comment
                                  • Seto
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 12-16-11
                                    • 12906

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                    Knowing the Warriors and the Pelicans -- an inferior team with zero playoff experience and a penchant for choking -- how in god's name can you offer the Warriors in the +6-900 range when it's 2-3 possession game and there's still 3 minutes left?
                                    I know it sounds like a dumb line but remember these lines are made based on math models and not based on feel. It's a pretty standard thing.

                                    Hell one book had Thunder +3300 against the Clippers in the first game of the season down 6 or 7 points with 4 minutes to go. The Thunder hit 2 threes and the line went down to about +200. In 3 or 4 possessions. These live lines move very fast because one possession affects so much in their models at that point in the game.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Seto
                                      I know it sounds like a dumb line but remember these lines are made based on math models and not based on feel. It's a pretty standard thing.

                                      Hell one book had Thunder +3300 against the Clippers in the first game of the season down 6 or 7 points with 4 minutes to go. The Thunder hit 2 threes and the line went down to about +200. In 3 or 4 possessions. These live lines move very fast because one possession affects so much in their models at that point in the game.
                                      Aren't the teams playing taken into consideration though? In other words, are the Warriors given the same odds facing the same deficit at the same point in time vs. the Pelicans as New Orleans would receive if the roles were reversed?
                                      Comment
                                      • paco
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-07-09
                                        • 62873

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                        Not ML, but got them at +11.5 early in the 4th.

                                        I tried taking the ML live when it was +700, but wasn't quick enough. In an even game between two equal teams, the odds are remote and not even worth a look. But again, given the teams playing and their respective histories, I'm not sure how you could throw that kind of number up live with so much time left.
                                        Good cash
                                        Comment
                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by paco
                                          Good cash
                                          Thanks, but the ML would've been a whole lot sweeter. To be honest, I hesitated because it didn't make any sense to me that they were offering that number. It still doesn't.
                                          Comment
                                          • Seto
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 12-16-11
                                            • 12906

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                                            Aren't the teams playing taken into consideration though? In other words, are the Warriors given the same odds facing the same deficit at the same point in time vs. the Pelicans as New Orleans would receive if the roles were reversed?
                                            Late in the game less so. Still a bit though. Let's put it this way: the line for OT was probably something like Warriors -165 Pelicans +140 right? That gives you more or less an idea of how different the books evaluate the teams late in a game.

                                            So in that same situation New Orleans would've probably been about +900 instead of +600.

                                            But they don't take into account whether a team chokes or not though. Same in tennis for instance. Everything live is pretty much based on a pre-game line and what the line would be if the match was tied at that particular instant.

                                            So if you have a -110/-110 pre-game line between a guy who's a talented player but a notorious choker and a guy who's a gritty player who's "solid", the comeback lines will be the same for both players no matter who's down.
                                            Comment
                                            • No coincidences
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-18-10
                                              • 76300

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Seto
                                              Late in the game less so. Still a bit though. Let's put it this way: the line for OT was probably something like Warriors -165 Pelicans +140 right? That gives you more or less an idea of how different the books evaluate the teams late in a game.

                                              So in that same situation New Orleans would've probably been about +900 instead of +600.

                                              But they don't take into account whether a team chokes or not though. Same in tennis for instance. Everything live is pretty much based on a pre-game line and what the line would be if the match was tied at that particular instant.

                                              So if you have a -110/-110 pre-game line between a guy who's a talented player but a notorious choker and a guy who's a gritty player who's "solid", the comeback lines will be the same for both players no matter who's down.
                                              I guess it has to be a computer-generated formula, given how quickly the books need to post a number. That's why they should just take the ML off the board in a situation like this, where you have a superior, clutch team facing a No. 8 seed full of gagging choke artists (not the first big comeback for Golden State, or the first horrific implosion by NOLA).
                                              Comment
                                              • Seto
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 12-16-11
                                                • 12906

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                I guess it has to be a computer-generated formula, given how quickly the books need to post a number. That's why they should just take the ML off the board in a situation like this, where you have a superior, clutch team facing a No. 8 seed full of gagging choke artists (not the first big comeback for Golden State, or the first horrific implosion by NOLA).
                                                I agree they probably should take the ML off the board. I would just close everything once the game gets to the last 5 or 6 minutes. Too many things can change in 1 play. But they're leaving it out there so they must have a reason. We just have to find a way to judge if we can profit on those plays or not.

                                                Yup it's obviously all computer generated.
                                                Comment
                                                • No coincidences
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 76300

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Seto
                                                  I agree they probably should take the ML off the board. I would just close everything once the game gets to the last 5 or 6 minutes. Too many things can change in 1 play. But they're leaving it out there so they must have a reason. We just have to find a way to judge if we can profit on those plays or not.

                                                  Yup it's obviously all computer generated.
                                                  You watch the NBA. You've seen the Pelicans do this a million times. They're notorious for it.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Seto
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-16-11
                                                    • 12906

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                    You watch the NBA. You've seen the Pelicans do this a million times. They're notorious for it.
                                                    Well yeah they did it just a week ago against the Spurs. They did it against the Cavs early in the season. There are probably more. They're notorious for leading by 20 early in the 4th and letting the game get close.

                                                    One of my first major cashes in the NBA was Lakers live +1125 against the New Orleans Hornets in 2012/13 when they were down 20+. Obviously a much different New Orleans team but maybe it's in the franchise's genes or something. lol.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • sballen
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 02-26-14
                                                      • 815

                                                      #27
                                                      I grabbed them at +11.5 and then watched the spead climb to +14.5 but was lucky enough to also thow some on Moneyline at +285 and +750. I saw their moneyline odds get up to +1200 at one point lol....but in all honesty that comeback was crazy lucky and the pelicans had a meltdown.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • No coincidences
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-18-10
                                                        • 76300

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Seto
                                                        Well yeah they did it just a week ago against the Spurs. They did it against the Cavs early in the season. There are probably more. They're notorious for leading by 20 early in the 4th and letting the game get close.

                                                        One of my first major cashes in the NBA was Lakers live +1125 against the New Orleans Hornets in 2012/13 when they were down 20+. Obviously a much different New Orleans team but maybe it's in the franchise's genes or something. lol.
                                                        Exactly.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • No coincidences
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-18-10
                                                          • 76300

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by sballen
                                                          I grabbed them at +11.5 and then watched the spead climb to +14.5 but was lucky enough to also thow some on Moneyline at +285 and +750. I saw their moneyline odds get up to +1200 at one point lol....but in all honesty that comeback was crazy lucky and the pelicans had a meltdown.
                                                          I keep seeing this comment. I don't get it. Luck had very little to do with it. NOLA earned that loss.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JameisBrady
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 03-15-15
                                                            • 1023

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by factor280
                                                            I threw $25 on +1200 live. Sick value.... come on Ot.
                                                            put 80 on it myself

                                                            Win4/23/15 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9737 Golden State Warriors +1280* <small>vs</small> New Orleans Pelicans
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JameisBrady
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 03-15-15
                                                              • 1023

                                                              #31
                                                              Guys, live betting is where it's at. True, this game was an aberration of sorts but in most NBA games one team will be a favorite at one point in the game and a dog later. very easy to make money if you pay attention to the live lines.

                                                              Loss4/23/15 9:35pm Live In-Play Basketball 9738 New Orleans Pelicans +1350* <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors

                                                              ^took that for the same amount when they were down 6 in OT.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Romerowned
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 03-20-12
                                                                • 186

                                                                #32
                                                                They usually juice the hell out of those live lines.
                                                                Comment
                                                                Search
                                                                Collapse
                                                                SBR Contests
                                                                Collapse
                                                                Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                Collapse
                                                                Working...