Leans for Wednesday 4/8/09

[cocknocker]

I think that the Pacers are going to smoke the Raptors today. I would say that 6 is a good round number, but I would wait a while and take them at 5.5 if the consensus falls in favor of the Raptors tonight. The Pacers are playing this game with revenge after getting smoked 110-87 the last time they hooked up in Canada in March. I expect a full smokin, but I hate those key numbers. I just can't do it. So in the event this line goes up to 6.5, I will still do what I have to do to play them at.

Pacers-5.5

The Grizzlies just played last night and covered against the Blazers losing a close game. The Magic will be playing their second leg of a back to back. These teams have gone under the total 7 out the last 10 times that these teams have played overall. No use re-inventing the wheel. I'll ride it until the wheels fall off.

Grizzlies/Magic under 197


The Mavs just blew Phoenix out on national television. Now the reality sets in. The Mavs are an up and down team as evidenced by their record. I say they go down in this one playing a better team. False favorite in this one. Utah wins this one going away

Jazz+4 Heavy with a 1 point buy

[cs11787]

CK I love the Utah play. Did you already play it? Im guessing you did because the line is already going down. Went from 3.5 to 3.

[TORONTOBBALL]

betting indiana ML largeee i just love this game

[cs11787]

Im liking Orlando everything tomorrow. Memphis played a well fought game against the Blazers last night and the Magic got humiliated by the Rockets. I think Orlando rolls with this one. What you guys think?

[TORONTOBBALL]

i like orlando ML also there comin off a tough lost against houston. memphis on the road is garbage not to mention back2back game also garbage. orlando at home gold back2back game orlando gold

[sweetjones55]

CK, the mavs are an up and down team but they are nothing but up lately @ Home. Jazz have been nothing but down on the road with the exception of 1 win vs NO playing without their 2nd and arguably their 3rd most important player. Any more insight into this game CK?

[StyleQ]

The Mavs are 10-1 their last 11 games at home, Josh Howard is working back nicely into their chemistry. Jazz are simply abysmal on the road. Brewer and Kirilenko, while superb defenders cannot contain Nowitzki, Howard & Terry on offense. Deron Williams is facing up against one of the most seasoned vets in PG Jason Kidd who also has pretty good defense and bodies up well against Williams. I'll take the Dallas ML on the game.

[GatorFan]

I think that the Pacers are going to smoke the Raptors today. I would say that 6 is a good round number, but I would wait a while and take them at 5.5 if the consensus falls in favor of the Raptors tonight. The Pacers are playing this game with revenge after getting smoked 110-87 the last time they hooked up in Canada in March. I expect a full smokin, but I hate those key numbers. I just can't do it. So in the event this line goes up to 6.5, I will still do what I have to do to play them at.

Pacers-5.5

The Grizzlies just played last night and covered against the Blazers losing a close game. The Magic will be playing their second leg of a back to back. These teams have gone under the total 7 out the last 10 times that these teams have played overall. No use re-inventing the wheel. I'll ride it until the wheels fall off.

Grizzlies/Magic under 197


The Mavs just blew Phoenix out on national television. Now the reality sets in. The Mavs are an up and down team as evidenced by their record. I say they go down in this one playing a better team. False favorite in this one. Utah wins this one going away

Jazz+3 Heavy

I would not play Jazz +3 heavy because of the following:
1. Dallas is playing at home court
2. Dallas need to win to be in playoff which Utah don't need to
3. Utah is not a solid road team at all.

I'm leaning to Dallas -3.

[cs11787]

All this criticism about the Utah pick and Dallas is only favored by 3 in which it dropped from 3.5??? Hmmm...sounds like the play would be the Jazz. But hey, who knows, this is why its called gambling. Already took Utah with ya CK. Lets gettem! Also GL to everyone else!

[Snookered]

Great picks Again CK! Thanks for the advice. I am going to tail you on these!

[danrman]

love the utah pick ck.. my early look says your dead on.. i think this game will be similar to the denver-dallas game at dallas where dallas lost by a few points... i will confirm tomorrow

[Snookered]

I am thinking of playing SUNS/ Hornets Under 222! and Nuggets/Thunder Over 209.5! What do you guys think? I need all the advice I can get.

[Mriswith]

All this criticism about the Utah pick and Dallas is only favored by 3 in which it dropped from 3.5??? Hmmm...sounds like the play would be the Jazz. But hey, who knows, this is why its called gambling. Already took Utah with ya CK. Lets gettem! Also GL to everyone else!

You got a point there with DAL only favored by 3...

As far as line movement ( pinnacle ) is concerned : Line opened DAL -3.5 @ -110 and UTA +3.5 @ -110, then moved to DAL -3 @ -110 and UTA +3 @ +100. So the line movement, taking into account the odds layed, would net DAL backers 0.5 pts, but 1 pt ( half a point from line plus another half point from the odds, as if one bought 0.5 pts ) for backing UTA. So I'd think so far the line moved in favor of UTA not DAL.

Not sure what to make of it, any thoughts be welcome.

rgz,
Mris

[King_Bookie]

You got a point there with DAL only favored by 3...

As far as line movement ( pinnacle ) is concerned : Line opened DAL -3.5 @ -110 and UTA +3.5 @ -110, then moved to DAL -3 @ -110 and UTA +3 @ +100. So the line movement, taking into account the odds layed, would net DAL backers 0.5 pts, but 1 pt ( half a point from line plus another half point from the odds, as if one bought 0.5 pts ) for backing UTA. So I'd think so far the line moved in favor of UTA not DAL.

Not sure what to make of it, any thoughts be welcome.

rgz,
Mris

This is the correct logic. Dallas would be my play of the day tomorrow.

[pho3nix32]

line: tr@ip 217.5
pick: 217.5 over

Both teams are already out of playoff contention and are playing without pressure. Both teams play an up-tempo brand of basketball. Toronto is playing their 4th game in 5 days which means no legs for defense. The over went 16-8 in their last 24 meetings. Expect both teams to try win the game tomorrow by outscoring each other.

[cs11787]

line: tr@ip 217.5
pick: 217.5 over

Both teams are already out of playoff contention and are playing without pressure. Both teams play an up-tempo brand of basketball. Toronto is playing their 4th game in 5 days which means no legs for defense. The over went 16-8 in their last 24 meetings. Expect both teams to try win the game tomorrow by outscoring each other.

Nice pick! I agree Toronto will be tired. All the more reason to take the pacers with the chalk! This is only the Pacers 3rd game in April so theyve had ALOT more rest than Toronto.

[Jimbo42]

CK, I'm with you on the Utah play... Dallas will bounce back down after that 140 point outburst and actually looking a bit closer, Utah has been playing a bit better on the road... They are 4-6 their last ten road games ....3 of the losses came against better teams in Denver, Orlando and Portland.. they also lost to Atlanta who can be a beast at home and two hard fought games in a 5 pt. loss to PHX and that crazy OT game vs. Miami which they could have won. They just handled New Orleans on the road which should boost that confidence...
Halfway through this tough game, Dallas is gonna wish they were still playing Phoenix when they were running and gunning and all smiles...
Utah + best line I can get

[Tennispro]

Pick for today Orlando 1st half whatever.
And to answer your question yes that's me with Angelina.

[pho3nix32]

good one tennispro!

[sweetjones55]

I just found some really interesting information about Dallas last three home losses. Dallas is 22-4 last 26 home games. The most recent lost to Denver on March 27th was without Josh Howard or Jason Kidd. Another home loss was to Boston (fully loaded with KG, Allen, Pierce, Rondo) on April 12th and that game Dallas did not have Jason Terry. I kept going back and their next two losses were to New Orleans (Jan 14th) and Denver (Dec 15th). Josh Howard did not play in that loss to New Orleans. So basically the last loss Dallas has had @ home at full strength was about 4 months ago to Denver.

[repski]

DET -2

Although this line scares me I'll take it as a blessing and roll wtih Detroit. NYN come off a disheartening loss vs Chicago which they were in control/contention most of the game. No playoff hopes for Knickerbockers and everything to play for Pistons. Bynum more than making up for the loss of Iverson. Fourth game in five nights for the Knicks.....Pistons roll

[King_Bookie]

I am playing a strict system for today, I can't put too much input today because I'm really busy:

WAS +15

Teams 40 games over five hundred or better, not on a 8+ game winning streak, are 9-36 ATS against non divisional teams at least 4 games under five hundred if favored by 5 or more and if in their previous game vs this same team they lost, or won by no more than 4, they are 0-11 ATS. (Cleveland lost to the Wiz). I'm betting on some tough angles here. People say Cleveland is in for a revenge game but as long as Agent 0 keeps Lebron in check, I can count on the Wiz losing by single digits.

OKC+13

Teams facing a bad team (20+ games under five hundred), before facing a conference leader, are 9-33 ATS. Denver is going to face the Lakers after this game so I'm looking for the angle wherein the Denver F*ckers is looking ahead for their duel with the Lakeshow. Plus OKC is playing with a player returning from a huge-ass injury(Livingston), and I bet those kind of teams ASAP.



I just found these trends on the web after some hard finding and I don't claim these as my own.

[NBA Hero]

like that repski.




king bookie,

and on okc as well

[Ludovike]

Washington +15,5
well, I just let Mike Brown talk about my reasoning for this pick:
"If you look at the history with us and the Wizards, every year during the regular season they've kind of had our number," Brown said. "When it comes playoff time, our guys have stepped up and we've won the series. Obviously, we won't see each other in the playoffs, but this year's no different. . . . It's just something about that team. They cause problems for us. Hopefully, we can find a way to get a win."
Added Ilgauskas: "We've had some problems with them. . . . Over the years, we've had some good battles with them. Now that they're healthy, relatively, it won't be easy. We won't come out there expecting to run up the score or win big. It's going to be a tough, grind-it-out game."
So if the Cavs are not convinced at all... why should I let this inflated spread pass?

[NBA Hero]

anyone has the data on whats the average of atl on a possibility of back to back wins on the road? the bucks might just put a little of a fight.

det had a lot of rest for the ame at MSG

[repski]

Dallas -3 (small)

-Dallas has now won 3 of their last 4, and they are within a game of catching Utah for the 7th playoff spot in the West to avoid the Lakers.
-Utah is just 1-3 SU in their last 4, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7.
-The home team in this series has won 7 in a row, covering ATS in 6 of the 7.
-Utah is just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 at Dallas
-The home team in this series is 20-6-1 against the spread.

[Magic62]

Dallas -3 (small)

-Dallas has now won 3 of their last 4, and they are within a game of catching Utah for the 7th playoff spot in the West to avoid the Lakers.
-Utah is just 1-3 SU in their last 4, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7.
-The home team in this series has won 7 in a row, covering ATS in 6 of the 7.
-Utah is just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 at Dallas
-The home team in this series is 20-6-1 against the spread.

gonna ride it with ya ,thanks n bol
i like also Detroit but can't trust them and knicks sometimes at home as dogs upset and screw things around,i feel better with this one since Dallas at home has good incentive with full squad and can cover these 3 pts easy vs a team which already lost by more than 3 this season there.

Cheers.

[Skelaton4]

I think there is some value in Washington +2800.. I know its in Cleveland but they beat them last time and with arenas back maybe they can do it again.

[cocknocker]

Right but according to ESPN and all the media outlets Dallas is expected to win this game. Dallas never wins when they are supposed to win. They are supposd to win this game, and not only get into the playoffs but present have a chance to catch Utah. This is their last meeting of the year. Jerry Sloan will be back on the bench for this one. I expect a spirited effort by the Jazz to break the trend. The Jazz win straight up by 6 in this game.

[sweetjones55]

You are going against some very hot trends here. GL to you CK. Are you putting a good amount on that Grizzlies/Magic Under?

[cs11787]

I think there is some value in Washington +2800.. I know its in Cleveland but they beat them last time and with arenas back maybe they can do it again.

I see where you're getting at Skelaton but I highly doubt the Cavs are gonna let this happen at home. The last time they played in Cleveland the Cavs almost got beat, then they got raped at Washington. Like they say, "you fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you." Cleveland will roll tonight but Im not sure they will cover the high spread they were assigned. But on the other hand, maybe a few, very few crumbs on the +2800 would be an exciting bet for the evening but id say its throwing money away.

[stakagrp]

I think there is some value in Washington +2800.. I know its in Cleveland but they beat them last time and with arenas back maybe they can do it again.

Do not waste your money because Lakers are only half a game behind Cleveland and has the tie breaker. Cleveland will do everything in their power to not lose this game. They want to win the easy games and be able to have homecourt advantage.

[cocknocker]

sweetjones55,

I am playing the Jazz heavy. I put $500 on the under play

[gizmo2431]

Dallas -3 (small)

-Dallas has now won 3 of their last 4, and they are within a game of catching Utah for the 7th playoff spot in the West to avoid the Lakers.
-Utah is just 1-3 SU in their last 4, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7.
-The home team in this series has won 7 in a row, covering ATS in 6 of the 7.
-Utah is just 3-8 against the spread their last 11 at Dallas
-The home team in this series is 20-6-1 against the spread.

hornets, spurs, mavs are my plays for the day. gluck

[Pajda]

4 team 10 points teaser:

Washington Wizards +26
Indiana Pacers +3
Oklahoma City Thunder +23
Utah Jazz +13½


GL all