Leans for Saturday 4/4/09 - Wake up CK Mafia!

[RoagBettor]

I apologize if I'm overstepping my authority, but we have some early games on tap today, and no one has posted the CK Mafia thread so here is a thread to use should ya'll choose to.

Early Leans:

Toronto +2.5
Chicago -8 (wow)

Both Toronto and Chicago are playing their best ball of the season and should continue to build on that late season success.

What say you?

[pho3nix32]

line: tr@nyk 219.5
pick: 219.5 over

Both teams have nothing to play for. Both teams play at a fast pace. Head to head, the over is 4-1 in previous 5 meetings in MSG. Colangelo and D'Antoni meet again. I guess I don't need to explain further.

[NBA Hero]

toronto has a bad record on early games.

roagbettor,

they might relax with knicks cause of their recent victory on orl.

and with the longest streak of tor, and injuries to knicks, shouldnt knicks be the favored by the points.

line looks suspicious, wouldnt you agree?

[BillAccpetor]

Memphis +6.5

[RoagBettor]

NBA, I don't think the line is suspicious at all. Knicks are 19-19 at home and beat Toronto by 30 pts in NY on 2/20. With Toronto getting 2.5 pts it's really a Pick-em game for the books. And it's the first of a home-and-home series for these teams, they play Sunday night in Toronto.

Toronto's young team is highly motivated to keep this winning streak going. The Knicks are...well...the Knicks.

I'm not sure about the over 219, I think it will be close to that but it's a tough call.

[BillAccpetor]

Toronto +2.5 and under 219.5

[peterpan19]

ok no time for a writeup right now bc I am heading out to Ikea today...

Tor +2.5 (even if it is a trap, but this team is clicking right now... add in that NYK came home after a road trip and didnt play since Tuesday... ok Tor played the last time on Wednesday...I dont see this game going over the total of 218 today, but I hate totals...)

Chi - anything (back home th Bulls are the play in this one...10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS...plus they know that Char is right behind them in the playoff race and they just cant afford to loose this one here... projected line something like -6 and I will go big on the Bulls today... plus they are 5-1 ATS and SU at home vs NJ... I like that play a lot)

GL

later games I like are... Orl, Phi and mem 1H

[peterpan19]

billaccpetor

where do you live in germany ?

anyway I am out now, be back in an hour or two... GL

[King_Bookie]

I had these game even before this day's games started:

Toronto +2.5 (Heavy)
Atlanta +2

[repski]

Villanova +7.5

I'm sorry, but I can't see this team getting blown out...they are playing @ a different level than I've seen all year....I'm taking the points and I may sprinkle a little on the ML

[Jimbo42]

For early games, I'm lookin to play the Nets... It is what i call a streak play... when a team breaks a losing streak they will cover one of the next two games...I'll be on the Nets today... if they don't pop, I'll hit them harder in game 2...

[RoagBettor]

Rep - the line on Bookmaker just moved to +6.5 for Nova. The money is starting to come in.

Updated: Never mind - just moved back to +7, that was fast.

[repski]

Toronto/Montreal over 6

-Toronto playing on the back end of BTB where they gave up 8 goals to the flyers last night
-Toronto is dead last in D..they've given up 266 goals this year
-Toronto'd power play D letting in 33%
-The over is 11-3-4 in Motreals last 18 games
-The over is 12-2-2 in Montreals last 16 visits to Toronto
-The last 5 games between these 2 teams has averaged 7.6 goals

[Razz_Donkey]

I once heard that the NBA was a game of injury and motivation. With that said, I think that although Chicago suffers from a few injuries, they are highly motivated. The Bobcats are right on their heels, and the Bulls desperately need to win their remaining games to stay in the playoff race. In fact, their final schedule is fairly soft, and they pose a legitimate threat to supplant Detroit and even Miami (who has a difficult closing schedule) as a 7th or even 6th seed. As such, the Nets are unlikely to pose a legitimate threat. I see the line opening at -4.5 up to -5.5 in favor of the Bulls. I like the pick CK and others. More to follow.

[repski]

Rep - the line on Bookmaker just moved to +6.5 for Nova. The money is starting to come in.

Updated: Never mind - just moved back to +7, that was fast.

if the ref's let them play Nova wins....if not I still think Nova covers.....JMHO

[repski]

interesting stat:

teams favorved by seven or more in Final Four games are 1-8 ATS

[RoagBettor]

Rep - I love Nova +15 in my 3/8 teaser

[Clutchski]

I'm not sure picking toronto heavy will be my pick:

1)The raps got their ass kicked at MSG the last time they played there, then went home to face the knicks again a couple days later and had a tough game as well.

Toronto has 5 wins in a row, including a big win over the Magic. The raps play the knicks away, then play them again at home in Toronto tomorrow at 6pm. They'll be working their ass off to win this game, but they set the line right at +2.5, because they failed hard in MSG last game..the atmosphere etc. What do you guys think?

[Vreston]

Hello all,

First of all Nice Call CK on Miami last night! I took it full time and 2nd half with the spread both times. It saved my day.
I lost Orl - Clev. with that over. I went under and also Oklahoma City that didn't cover the spread. Didn't play Atlanta though.
I played Minnesota on a hunch ML and they won and saved a 4 game bet that didn't do so well. If I wasn't so sleepy last night I probably would've done better. I'm 8 hours ahead of you guys and I can't keep up!

Got college hoops tonight again
Things are not that clear cut any more. I still think North Carolina will take it all even though I can't not love that Villanova team too. Wish they were against each other in the finals instead. I don't know if the spread is too big at -7 for N.C.

I'll check up on you guys later after you wake up.

[peterpan19]

ok guys Chi opened at -8... even a bit more than I thought it would... but hell I still like it... but just think about it for a moment... why would the line be so high if the books didnt expect a blowout win today by Chi... they just want some money on NJ bc they know it wont even be close...GL

also Phi -3 looks really good... AI is out now for ever... but hell its still the Pistons who underperformed.. but Phio wants this game bad too... since they want to hold onto that no. 5 seed or even make a run to catch ATL (who knows)... but its better to face face ATL in the playoffs than lets say Orl or Boston... of course Detroti is not safe either but this is a road game ... hell I like Phi ... dont forget they have the revenge angle going for them too.. 2 straigt home losses against Det and the last road game lost too... dont forget that Detroit might look ahead to that game against Char, bc thats the important game to win...

PHI -3... lets get it

GL

[peterpan19]

den lead by 9, 13 and 11 points at the half in their 3 most recent games... I just dont know about the whole game here today... can they seal the deal or will they sit back and let the Clippers cover late ??

I think a nice 1H play could be a nice play here...

early games booked:
Tor +2.5
Phi -3
Chi -7.5

GL

[NBA Hero]

I had these game even before this day's games started:

Toronto +2.5 (Heavy)
Atlanta +2

king bookie,

wont atl be tired after trying to catch up with their rival bos last night, while orl are rested at the fourth quarter.

the only reason that could go wrong is that the public is on orl like bee to honey and the line is not moving like the traffic at NY on its busiest street.

[Bobby518]

I don't post often ( as you can see), but you guys are an awesome group! I can't wait to start the baseball season!

Today I'm liking:
Toronto
Michigan State
N. Carolina

Anyone have leans on TOR 1Q ??

Thanks!

[King_Bookie]

That's what people said when the FAKESHOW visited the hawks at home. Mind you, but them Hawks are like Utah; very different teams on road and at home.

[lakerboy]

toronto

gotta like raps today the knicks are going to stink up the joint like they always do after a road trip

the hawks are a good play as magic used everything last night

the nets are the play today as the bulls will be overconfident and arent the same without salmons- nets are like free money today

over in bucks game looks good

stay away from pistons game

[melincrea]

NYK -3 / Under 221
-Toronto does not need to prove anything after beating Orlando
-Toronto's win streak is composed of sub par NBA teams (excluding Orlando)
-New York's losing streak is composed of above par NBA teams (Utah and Denver)
-NYK has beaten Toronto by 30 in their previous game at MSG, although losing to Toronto IN Toronto

[Rellik]

main event mafia are rolling with these early picks

toronto +3
nets/bulls over 207
philadelphia 76ers -3

lets see how the cookie crumbles.!!!!
9 w and 1 l in the last 2 nights

[italiano22]

76ers are the way to go

[peeiempee]

Gonna go with who's hot
Playing Sixers, Magic, Raptors

[Jimbo42]

Rellik is on FIRE!

[cocknocker]

Knicks-2 for me early

[cocknocker]

Also playing the

Bucks-6

Pistons+3

[Jimbo42]

Booked:
New Jersey +8

[Dexter]

i have to take a deeper look at the nba later, but dont think i'll be playing anything. had an early lean on the raptors, but dont like the movement ive seen. aside from my head to head wager in my dog thread, i have also made the following side plays with my books.

villanova +7
under 160

mich st +4.5
under 134

[TheLemonDropKid]

Knicks-2 for me early

Whew!!!!!!!!! I'm glad you said this bro.....I was beginning to get a little concerned with most of the mafia jumping on Toronto. I went with the Knicks too. I feel much better knowing you went this way.