Over the last 2 or 3 years in the NBA the angle of playing a team after their coach got canned has never failed me. Off hand I remember:
Lakers over Warriors in 2012/13 after they fired Brown. (won by 24 as probably 7-8 point faves or so)
Bucks over Suns in 2012/13 after they fired Skiles. (won by 9 as 5.5 point faves or so)
Suns over Kings in 2012/13 after they fired Gentry. (won by 10 as 3 point dogs or so)
Pistons over Spurs in 2013/14 after they fired Cheeks. (won by 9 as 5 point dogs after leading by more than 20 in the 2nd half)
I also believe the Knicks beat the Blazers by like 40 in 2011/12 after firing d'Antoni, but I'm not sure if I bet that one. So of the 5 I can remember, it's 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU. Also mostly blowout wins that beat the spread by at least 10 points if not a lot more. The only one that was close was the Milwaukee one.
I don't know the last time this angle didn't work. I might be missing a recent one for all I know. But usually it works and it's not even a sweat.
But with all that said, can we really trust the Kings to cover here? They'll probably be 9 point dogs or so. They've looked like dogshit without Cousins and the Thunder are seriously rolling and are probably the 2nd most "public-friendly" team in terms of covering big spreads over the last few years after the Spurs. Not sure how to factor in that the game is on ESPN.
Lakers over Warriors in 2012/13 after they fired Brown. (won by 24 as probably 7-8 point faves or so)
Bucks over Suns in 2012/13 after they fired Skiles. (won by 9 as 5.5 point faves or so)
Suns over Kings in 2012/13 after they fired Gentry. (won by 10 as 3 point dogs or so)
Pistons over Spurs in 2013/14 after they fired Cheeks. (won by 9 as 5 point dogs after leading by more than 20 in the 2nd half)
I also believe the Knicks beat the Blazers by like 40 in 2011/12 after firing d'Antoni, but I'm not sure if I bet that one. So of the 5 I can remember, it's 5-0 ATS and 5-0 SU. Also mostly blowout wins that beat the spread by at least 10 points if not a lot more. The only one that was close was the Milwaukee one.
I don't know the last time this angle didn't work. I might be missing a recent one for all I know. But usually it works and it's not even a sweat.
But with all that said, can we really trust the Kings to cover here? They'll probably be 9 point dogs or so. They've looked like dogshit without Cousins and the Thunder are seriously rolling and are probably the 2nd most "public-friendly" team in terms of covering big spreads over the last few years after the Spurs. Not sure how to factor in that the game is on ESPN.