ATS - mostly dogs

bihon · 12-13-14, 04:28 AM

Starting bankroll: 100 units, betting always one unit.

madeinchin4 · 12-13-14, 04:40 AM

I will be following you and BOL!

bihon · 12-13-14, 08:31 AM

Por+3 / Chi
Orl+8.5 / Atl
Nyk+6.5 / Bos
Ind+9 / Tor
Cha+10 / Mem
Okc / Min+8.5
Det+9.5 / Phx
Lal+12.5 / Sas

Dec 13, 2014

Bkn+3 / Cha
Mem / Phi+10 (I would bet here 10 units following my guts, however it is against the rules

)
Det+6 / Sac

bihon · 12-14-14, 05:21 AM

Bkn+3 / Cha
Mem / Phi+10
Det+6 / Sac

8-3-0

Dec 14, 2014:

GSW / NOP+6.5
CHI / MIA+4.5
PHX+6.5 / OKC
SAS / DEN+3.5

bihon · 12-15-14, 04:35 AM

GSW / NOP+6.5
CHI / MIA+4.5
PHX+6.5 / OKC
SAS / DEN+3.5

9-6-0

Dec 15, 2014

LAL+5 / IND
ORL+8 / TOR
DET+12.5 / LAC
CHA+10 / CLE

Khum · 12-15-14, 06:33 AM

Sunday ain't the best day to go against the favs.
But I like what you're doing here

bihon · 12-15-14, 08:07 AM

Originally posted by Khum

Sunday ain't the best day to go against the favs.

That could be interesting. Do you have some links about that or does it come from your own research?

Khum · 12-15-14, 08:54 AM

It's just logic: for Sunday they schedule matches in which mostly the big teams are involved. These games are broadcasted on national televisions. So these games are taken seriously by the big teams. If they are also in decent or good form, they usually win SU and mostly ATS too.

bihon · 12-15-14, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by Khum

It's just logic: for Sunday they schedule matches in which mostly the big teams are involved. These games are broadcasted on national televisions. So these games are taken seriously by the big teams. If they are also in decent or good form, they usually win SU and mostly ATS too.

OK, thanks for the extra work

. I have just analysed all Sunday games this year and as expected couldn't find any anomalies. It also didn't matter how big the spread was (ordered that way).
Column 9 is the ATS result. The names of the favorites are missing here, but it is not important for this purpose.

30	nov	Minnesota Timberwolves	-14	212	Won	107	93	Push	Under	0
9	nov	Philadelphia 76ers	-13,5	205	Won	120	88	Win	Over	1
14	dec	Utah Jazz	-11,5	193	Won	93	84	Loss	Under	-1
7	dec	@ Detroit Pistons	-10	194	Won	96	94	Loss	Under	-1
2	nov	Sacramento Kings	-9,5	205	Lost	92	98	Loss	Under	-1
30	nov	@ Detroit Pistons	-9	202	Won	104	93	Win	Under	1
7	dec	Milwaukee Bucks	-9	210	Won	125	102	Win	Over	1
30	nov	Orlando Magic	-9	204	Lost	90	93	Loss	Under	-1
9	nov	Denver Nuggets	-9	207	Won	116	100	Win	Over	1
9	nov	Orlando Magic	-8,5	198	Won	104	96	Loss	Over	-1
16	nov	@ Los Angeles Lakers	-8	213	Won	136	115	Win	Over	1
23	nov	@ Oklahoma City Thunder	-8	196	Won	91	86	Loss	Under	-1
9	nov	Miami Heat	-8	205	Lost	96	105	Loss	Under	-1
7	dec	Miami Heat	-8	192	Won	103	87	Win	Under	1
14	dec	Phoenix Suns	-7,5	211	Won	112	88	Win	Under	1
30	nov	@ Boston Celtics	-7,5	204	Won	111	89	Win	Under	1
14	dec	@ Miami Heat	-7	194	Won	93	75	Win	Under	1
30	nov	@ Los Angeles Lakers	-7	209	Lost	122	129	Loss	Over	-1
14	dec	@ New Orleans Pelicans	-6,5	205	Won	128	122	Loss	Over	-1
14	dec	@ New York Knicks	-6,5	200	Won	95	90	Loss	Under	-1
7	dec	@ New York Knicks	-6,5	195	Won	103	99	Loss	Over	-1
7	dec	Denver Nuggets	-6	211	Won	96	84	Win	Under	1
16	nov	@ Oklahoma City Thunder	-5	192	Won	69	65	Loss	Under	-1
16	nov	Milwaukee Bucks	-5	189	Lost	84	91	Loss	Under	-1
14	dec	@ Denver Nuggets	-5	203	Won	99	91	Win	Under	1
23	nov	@ Boston Celtics	-5	209	Won	94	88	Win	Under	1
30	nov	@ Sacramento Kings	-4,5	193	Won	97	85	Win	Under	1
14	dec	@ Minnesota Timberwolves	-4	212	Won	100	94	Win	Under	1
9	nov	Utah Jazz	-3,5	192	Lost	96	97	Loss	Over	-1
2	nov	Charlotte Hornets	-3,5	185	Won	96	93	Loss	Over	-1
2	nov	Golden State Warriors	-3,5	209	Lost	90	95	Loss	Under	-1
7	dec	@ Boston Celtics	-3,5	204	Lost	93	101	Loss	Under	-1
30	nov	@ New York Knicks	-3	189	Won	86	79	Win	Under	1
9	nov	Golden State Warriors	-3	209	Won	107	95	Win	Under	1
30	nov	@ Brooklyn Nets	-2,5	193	Won	102	84	Win	Under	1
9	nov	@ Los Angeles Lakers	-2,5	202	Lost	92	107	Loss	Under	-1
23	nov	Los Angeles Clippers	-2,5	198	Won	107	91	Win	Push	1
7	dec	@ Los Angeles Lakers	-2,5	207	Won	104	87	Win	Under	1
23	nov	@ Los Angeles Lakers	-2	221	Won	101	94	Win	Under	1
2	nov	Toronto Raptors	-2	197	Won	107	102	Win	Over	1
16	nov	Denver Nuggets	-2	203	Won	109	93	Win	Under	1
9	nov	@ Oklahoma City Thunder	-2	190	Lost	93	101	Loss	Over	-1
23	nov	Charlotte Hornets	-1	185	Won	94	93	Push	Over	0

Khum · 12-15-14, 01:20 PM

For yesterday match between the Warriors and the Pelicans the line was -5.5 at the begining of the match ...

bihon · 12-15-14, 01:53 PM

Originally posted by Khum

For yesterday match between the Warriors and the Pelicans the line was -5.5 at the begining of the match ...

The line moved between -6.5 and -5.5 during the day. At the moment I posted it was -6.5.

DonBest

http://www.donbest.com/nba/odds/spreads/20141214.html

I also got some worse lines than the closing ones and posted them here, but in the end it doesn't make the difference.

Khum · 12-15-14, 02:05 PM

I didn't question it relatively to your bets but relatively to the statistics you take into consideration when we talk about Sundays

bihon · 12-15-14, 02:28 PM

Originally posted by Khum

I didn't question it relatively to your bets but relatively to the statistics you take into consideration when we talk about Sundays

Oh, I see. I actually copied it from another side, so they also used -6,5 for that match.
But the reasoning remains the same: In the long run it doesn't realy matter. For every point you earn, you loose one somewhere else.
And contrary to general opinion the bookies are not perfect when it comes to spread. It doesn't really comes so often that the line correct is up to the point.

bihon · 12-16-14, 01:36 PM

LAL+5 / IND
ORL+8 / TOR
DET+12.5 / LAC
CHA+10 / CLE

10-9-0

Dec 16, 2014

MIN / WAS -12.5
MIA+7.5 / BRO
GSW+2.5 / MEM
UTA / NOP -9
DAL -6.5 / NYK
OKC / SAC+7

ML: (not part of the system, just side-tracking)
MIA@3.89 / BRO
DAL@1.38 / NYK
GSW@2.28 + OT@12.0 / MEM

bihon · 12-17-14, 03:16 PM

MIN / WAS -12.5
MIA+7.5 / BRO
GSW+2.5 / MEM
UTA / NOP -9
DAL -6.5 / NYK
OKC / SAC+7

13-12-0

ML:
MIA@3.89 / BRO
DAL@1.38 / NYK
GSW@2.28 + OT@12.0 / MEM

Dec 17, 2014

ATL+5.5 / CLE
PHX-2 / CHA
ORL+3.5 / BOS + OT@12.0
UTA+3.5 / MIA + OT@12.0
DET / DAL-6.5
BRO+11.5 / TOR
MEM / SAS-3.5
MIL / POR-9.5

ML:
ORL@2.49
UTA@2.53
HOU@1.86

bihon · 12-18-14, 10:41 AM

ATL+5.5 / CLE
PHX-2 / CHA
ORL+3.5 / BOS
UTA+3.5 / MIA
DET / DAL-6.5
BRO+11.5 / TOR
MEM / SAS-3.5
MIL / POR-9.5

17-16-0

ML:
ORL@2.49 + OT@12.0 (OT's not being tracked, put on the wrong place)
UTA@2.53 + OT@12.0
HOU@1.86

Dec 18, 2014

NYK+10 / CHI + O193.5
OKC / GSW-3 + U210.5
MIL+5.5 / SAC + U203
NOP+4.5 /HOU + U202

ML:
MIL@3.10
NOP/HOU OT@12.00

Khum · 12-19-14, 08:52 AM

Bravo!

bihon · 12-19-14, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by Khum

Bravo!

Thanks, nice sweep of course, but it is a long way to Emerald City.

bihon · 12-19-14, 10:48 AM

NYK+10 / CHI + O193.5
OKC / GSW-3 + U210.5
MIL+5.5 / SAC + U203
NOP+4.5 /HOU + U202

ATS: 21-16-0

ML:
MIL@3.10
NOP/HOU OT@12.00

Dec 19, 2014

UTA+3 / ORL
MIN / BOS-6
BKN+12 / CLE
WAS-5 / MIA
CHI+5.5 / MEM
POR+5 / SAS
LAC-6 / DEN
OKC-6 / LAL

ML:
POR@2.86 / SAS
UTA@2.4 / ORL
CHI@3.00 / MEM
CHA@1.54 / PHI
OKC@1.4 / LAL
TOR@1.3 / DET

Khum · 12-19-14, 12:01 PM

In any long way every step has it's value

Best of luck!

bihon · 12-20-14, 10:34 AM

UTA+3 / ORL
MIN / BOS-6
BKN+12 / CLE
WAS-5 / MIA
CHI+5.5 / MEM
POR+5 / SAS
LAC-6 / DEN
OKC-6 / LAL

ATS: 26-19-0 +4.40

ML:
POR@2.86 / SAS
UTA@2.4 / ORL
CHI@3.00 / MEM
CHA@1.54 / PHI
OKC@1.4 / LAL
TOR@1.3 / DET
+6.5

ML:11-2-0 +12.26
OT:0-4

Dec 20, 2014

PHX-6.5 / NYK
POR+5 / NOP
ATL+5 / HOU
SAS+10.5 / DAL
IND+4 / DEN
MIL+10.5 / LAC

ML:
IND@2.58 /DEN +OT
ATL@2.9 / HOU
POR@2.70 / NOP +OT
PHX@1.35 / NYK

bihon · 12-21-14, 08:10 AM

PHX-6.5 / NYK
POR+5 / NOP
ATL+5 / HOU
SAS+10.5 / DAL
IND+4 / DEN
MIL+10.5 / LAC

ATS:32-19-0 +9.80

ML:
IND@2.58 /DEN
ATL@2.9 / HOU
POR@2.70 / NOP
PHX@1.35 / NYK

ML: 14-3 +15.21
OT: 0-6

Dec 21, 2014

NYK+12 / TOR
MEM+3.5 / CLE
DET / BRO-4.5
BOS+1.5 / MIA
PHI / ORL-8.5
IND-2.5 / MIN
NOP+5 / OKC +OT@12.0

ML:
NYK@7.2 / TOR +OT@12.0
MEM@2.28 / CLE +OT@12.0
DET / BRO@1.55
BOS@2.1 / MIA
PHX / WAS@1.38
IND@1.7 / MIN

bihon · 12-22-14, 02:17 PM

NYK+12 / TOR
MEM+3.5 / CLE
DET / BRO-4.5
BOS+1.5 / MIA
PHI / ORL-8.5
IND-2.5 / MIN
NOP+5 / OKC + OT

ATS: 36-22-0 +10.40

ML:
NYK@7.2 / TOR +OT
MEM@2.28 / CLE +OT
DET / BRO@1.55
BOS@2.1 / MIA
PHX / WAS@1.38
IND@1.7 / MIN

ML: 16-7 +12.46 OT:0-9

Dec 22, 2014

POR+3.5 / HOU
LAC / SAS+1.5

ML:
POR@2.50 / HOU
ATL / DAL@1.51
LAC / SAS@2.02

bihon · 12-23-14, 01:03 PM

POR+3.5 / HOU
LAC / SAS+1.5

37-23-0 +10.30

ML:
POR@2.50 / HOU
ATL / DAL@1.51
LAC / SAS@2.02

17-9 +11.48

Dec 23, 2014

BOS+2 /ORL
CHI/ WAS-3
LAC+1.5 /ATL
PHI/ MIA-8
CHA+5.5 /MIL +OT
POR+5.5 /OKC
DAL+1.5 /PHX
GSW-10 /LAL

ML:
POR@3.1 /OKC
BOS@2.17 /ORL
LAC@2.05 /ATL
DAL@2.05 /PHX
CHI/ WAS@1.65

bihon · 12-24-14, 12:14 PM

It looks like ESPN (my main free data source) screw something up with the average points data.

2024-25 NBA Team Stat Leaders - ESPN

http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/team/_/stat/team-comparison-per-game/split/34

ESPN is the place for NBA stats! Find a list of the team stat leaders for the 2024-25 NBA Regular Season.

They are using the total opponent points also in home/road tables:

E.g.:
TEAM OWN OPP
----------------------
Home:
Toronto 105.5 100.1 (should be: 105,5-95,3)
Road:
Toronto 112.0 100.1 (should be: 112-106,9)
Total:
Toronto 108.2 100.1
-----------------------
Home:
Dallas 112.3 103.2 (should be: 112,3-103,6)
Road:
Dallas 106.9 103.2 (should be: 106,9-102,8)
Total:
Dallas 109.6 103.2
-----------------------

Home:
Boston 105.2 104.3 (should be: 105,2-103,9)
Road:
Boston 101.6 104.3 (should be: 101,6-105)
Total:
Boston 103.7 104.3
-----------------------
etc...

I have contacted them and they escalated the issue.

bihon · 12-24-14, 01:11 PM

BOS+2 /ORL
CHI/WAS-3
LAC+1.5 /ATL
PHI/ MIA-8
CHA+5.5 /MIL
POR+5.5 /OKC
DAL+1.5/PHX
GSW-10 /LAL

ATS TOT: 39-29-0 +6.10

ML:
POR@3.1 /OKC
BOS@2.17 /ORL
LAC@2.05 /ATL
DAL@2.05 /PHX
CHI/ WAS@1.65

ML TOT: 18-13 +9.58

Dec 25, 2014
OKC/ SAS-5.5
LAL/ CHI-10
GSW+2 /LAC

ML:
SAS@1.45

bihon · 12-26-14, 08:22 AM

OKC/ SAS-5.5
LAL/ CHI-10
GSW+2 /LAC

ATS: +5.00

SAS@1.45
ML: +8.58

A bit strange situation here.
The system was optimized on ESPN data, which turned to be partially wrong. As soon I realised it, I started using NBA.com data for that part (opponent avg points h/a) and since then the results are very in red.
Of course I could continue using opponent totals for both home and away but I don't see any sense in it and I don't like following something I can't see the logic in.
I will simply continue following the system with the correct data for at least 300 picks as stated.

bihon · 12-26-14, 10:03 AM

Dec 26, 2014

MIL/ ATL-8.5
IND-2.5 /DET
HOU+4 /MEM
SAS/ NOP+2.5
LAL/ DAL-10.5
MIN/ DEN-10.5
PHI/ POR-14
PHX-1.5 /SAC

ml:
IND@1.72 /DET
PHX@1.85 /SAC
CLE@1.5 /ORL
SAS/ NOP@2.25

bihon · 12-27-14, 11:20 AM

MIL/ ATL-8.5
IND-2.5 /DET
HOU+4 /MEM
SAS/ NOP+2.5
LAL/ DAL-10.5
MIN/ DEN-10.5
PHI/ POR-14
PHX-1.5 /SAC

ats: +4.60

ml:
IND@1.72 /DET
PHX@1.85 /SAC
CLE@1.5 /ORL
SAS/ NOP@2.25

ml: +10.43

bihon · 12-27-14, 12:59 PM

Dec 27, 2014

TOR+4.5 /LAC
BOS/ WAS-9.5
MEM-2.5 /MIA
IND+2.5 /BRK
NOP/ CHI-9.5
ATL /MIL+4.5
MIN /GSW-17

ml:
MEM@1.71 /MIA
NYK@2.82 /SAC

bihon · 12-28-14, 07:08 AM

TOR+4.5 /LAC
BOS/ WAS-9.5
MEM-2.5 /MIA
IND+2.5 /BRK
NOP/ CHI-9.5
ATL /MIL+4.5
MIN /GSW-17

ATS: 48-38 +5.20

MEM@1.71 /MIA
NYK@2.82 /SAC

ml: 22-16 +10.14

bihon · 12-28-14, 10:21 AM

Dec 28, 2014

DET/ CLE-9
TOR-2.5 /DEN
PHO-6.5 /LAL

ml:
TOR@1.72 /DEN
OKC/ DAL@1.53

bihon · 12-29-14, 06:29 AM

DET/ CLE-9
TOR-2.5 /DEN
PHO-6.5 /LAL

ATS: 50-39 +6.00

TOR@1.72 /DEN
OKC/ DAL@1.53

ml: 24-16 +11.39

bihon · 12-29-14, 08:07 AM

Dec 29, 2014

ATS:
MIL+3.5 /CHA
CHI-5.5 /IND
SAC+1.5 /BRK
ORL+4.5 /MIA
WAS+4 /HOU

ML:
SAC@2.00 /BRK
ORL@2.66 /MIA