Thunder+3.5 -110 (bet365) (risking 1.65x to win 1.5x)
-
Comment -
Surprised on your bet on the Thunder. I personally thought it would be bigger. I'm actually thinking of going 6 units on them. Especially at 3.5Comment -
hey Seto, prosperous '15 for you and this thread...
i now have my willy account loaded and am jazzed and ready for you the next time you get "moronic" and stack increasingly higer payout (and thus, decreasingly likely...had to put that in there so the quality of my sex life doesn't get called into question
) point handicaps
______________
a key theme to this thread recently is that the majority of PT-dwelling dolts suffer from HRF (hit-rate fascination)...
the more wised-up you become in this exercise the more you realize how thinking along the lines of "Wins versus Losses" is irrelevant at best, misleading at worst...
and the more aware you become that it's really the battle between "Units-won" and "Units-Lost" that matters at all...
so best of luck as you continue to lose FAR more plays than you win (and, simultaneously win more $$ than you lose
)
________________________
Last edited by fitguy67; 01-05-15, 06:12 PM.Comment -
like the okc play. good luckComment -
Fitguy, from the ashes of SBR. Are you still smoking weed and tweaking out on excel ?Comment -
something that stood out as a result of a quick tabulation of this thread's widely-varying bet-sizes
________________
the "average" play ITT is something like: risk 1.07u to win 1.91u (251.57u risked to win 448.88u over 235 plays)
meaning the average odds of all plays taken as a whole is an amazing +178.5 (2.785)
carrying an implied win% required to break even of just 36%
meaning that Seto's ability to maintain the seemingly-crappy 39% of this thread is in fact brilliant...indicating a huge edge of about 8% =39%/36%
another way to look at the same thing is that with his 39% win rate, he'd break even with avg odds of +156...his ability to get his plays at a much better rate of +178 underlies the successs we see in this thread...again the 8% edge, this time in terms of (actual decimal odds payout)/(decimal odds requied to break even) = 2.78/2.56
Last edited by fitguy67; 01-06-15, 10:12 AM.Comment -
SAN -8.5
I think books are trying to capitalize on the recent improvement in Detroit's play and the resulting growth in bettors' willingness to take a chance on the Pistons.
8.5 points is an insufficient boost against the well-rested defending champs playing at home to start the "business end" of the season? I expect increased focus from the Spurs now...Pops will instil and insist upon "keeping the foot on the gas" instead of coasting as was ok (even necessary) early in the year to not peak to soon/risk injury etc...
the increased intensity will not be primarily to JUST win games, but for the psychological-development necessary to the team's run to a repeat title. Remember the way the Heat went out the second half of '12-13 as if they'd been possessed...not just winning but "pouring it on" to the final buzzer even when they clearly didn't have to. Such intensity serves to intimidate/make a statement, of course but also to build and habituate playoff-ready character in their players.
I expect more blowouts from the elite teams over mediocre teams from here on out...and that's what we have with Detroit playing a well-rested Spurs team, in this early stage of the endgame. The Spurs last game was an unimpressive road victory in 2014 over the Pelicans...i expect a serious effort to parlay that into an impressive home victory over the Pistons to start making some sort of statement that the 2015 Spurs-to-repeat campaign has begun.Last edited by fitguy67; 01-06-15, 03:05 AM.Comment -
I agree fit, but I usually look for a good live opportunity with the NBA.Comment -
you're right...wait for an early-/mid-game lead to be built up by Pistons, and use as an opportunity to sneak into a Spurs position at a much better price
that's the only way live betting works for me...using it simply as a way to get a better price (often MUCH better) on a positon you lean toward pre-game anyway...
trying to bet the ebbs and flows (changing your "market view" in real time) is suicide in the long run in basketball...get whipsawed more often than not
:
Comment -
Agreed 100%. Which is part of the reason why most lose here but whatever.hey Seto, prosperous '15 for you and this thread...
i now have my willy account loaded and am jazzed and ready for you the next time you get "moronic" and stack increasingly higer payout (and thus, decreasingly likely...had to put that in there so the quality of my sex life doesn't get called into question) point handicaps
______________
a key theme to this thread recently is that the majority of PT-dwelling dolts suffer from HRF (hit-rate fascination)...
the more wised-up you become in this exercise the more you realize how thinking along the lines of "Wins versus Losses" is irrelevant at best, misleading at worst...
and the more aware you become that it's really the battle between "Units-won" and "Units-Lost" that matters at all...
so best of luck as you continue to lose FAR more plays than you win (and, simultaneously win more $$ than you lose)
________________________
Comment -
Pelicans was actually a home game they won by absolute miracle.
If one thinks the Spurs are gonna turn it around, this is precisely the right time to start betting on them yes. I'm not convinced however. They're still missing arguably their best player which after a few weeks can take its toll even on a team like the Spurs.Comment -
I thought of going bigger or adding a ml play but Warriors are starting to really play the role of regular season heroes, I was a bit afraid to fade them.
At the end of the day this gives us the opportunity to bet OKC large tomorrow where they will pound the Kings in my mind. Kings are an autofade right now and looking at Westbrook and Durant's numbers in the last game both guys will be up for it in this game I think.Comment -
I've finally had time to sit down and punch in my "real-money" record into my computer for the last month or so after being taken up by all the crazy December travelling and it seems I made a mistake here. I got the Nets at -109 not -101. So I lost 1.09 units on the game, so add 0.08 units of losses to the total record lol.
Updated record last time: 95-143-1, +42.83x
Yesterday: 0-1, -1.65x
Total: 95-144-1, +41.18xComment -
Tomorrow
Thunder-6.5 -110 (paddy power) (risking 2.75x to win 2.5x)Comment -
Yes, I agree with you. Pre-game position looking for a better price. Having data on team's quarter performances using good metrics can help. But live betting is time consuming as you need to be watching the game and are often limited bet size wise. Watching the NBA gives me anxiety. I'm a baseball guy.you're right...wait for an early-/mid-game
lead to be built up by Pistons, and use as an opportunity to sneak into a Spurs position at a much better price
that's the only way live betting works for me...using it simply as a way to get a better price (often MUCH better) on a positon you lean toward pre-game anyway...
trying to bet the ebbs and flows (changing your "market view" in real time) is suicide in the long run in basketball...get whipsawed more often than not:Comment -
to show how fully i agree with this...here's something i posted over in NoCoin's thread not too long ago (actually a repost of something originally aimed at another thing i have decided--for "mental health" reasons--to occasionally bet on but NOT watch, broad's tennis (aka. WTA))
basketball...where annoying happens...
_______________
just a few months from that two syllable eight-letter word beginning with "b"... that makes all men happy:
"baseball" (er, was that "blowjobs"...nah, it's baseball, cuz u don't have to go 6 months without, waiting for the blowjob season to start)Last edited by fitguy67; 01-07-15, 12:21 PM.Comment -
First quarter almost done and thunder shooting 1/16 for 10% and 7 points. Alrighty then
On the bright side it can't possibly get any worse....Comment -
Wow pistons playing like a title contenderComment -
Mavs have caught all of those East teams when they're hot, Heat, Hawks, and now Pistons... smh. Still no excuse for their total no shows in all of those games. They've lost 4 at home to the East along with that joke of a Pacers game which is inexcusable really. Otoh they've won 13 straight or something on the road against the East. Shit is weird.
Coming back to Detroit they've obviously come back into playoff contention. The Bucks are bound to hit a rough patch at some point right?Comment -
I guess we're all different Tennis and NBA are my 2 favourite sports to watch by far. They are bad for your health at times when you've got lots riding on the game but it's part of the fun I guess.
Baseball is ok. It's relaxing for me cause I never have a lot riding on the games (as I don't know much I can't bet much money on it) and it's generally a relaxing type of sport I find. Not my favourite sport but still a sport I like. NHL and NFL are unwatchable though for me so far. I've tried a few times I just can't. Who knows, maybe one day.Comment -
I like this really at any number, looks like this game was just a no-show from them. Fukk this team. 2 games in a row... Thankfully I scaled back a but on what I may have initially been planning on both games.Comment -
Yesterday: 0-1, -2.75x
Total: 95-145-1, +38.43xComment -
Pistons+3.5 -120 (skybet) (risking 1.5x to win 1.25x)Comment -
I took the second half -9. So -3 for the game. Well seeComment -
Today: 1-0, +1.25x
Total: 96-145-1, +39.68x
Funny thing is I booked my bet just before the game and was trying desperately to find a book with +3 and couldn't find any... Was about to settle for +2.5 then saw sky had +3.5 -120 and figured what the hell, 15 cents for a full point is worth it... Wow that was a crazy escape not that it was a big play or anything but it's always nice.
Comment -
Wizards-1.5 -105 (5dimes) (risking 2.1x to win 2x)Comment -
Heat+2 -110 (5dimes) (risking 11x to win 10x)
Laying the hammer here. This line is such a fukking joke. Miami is about to get hot.
Got the bet in as soon as pinny moved to 1.5, was no time to wait for reduced juice.Comment -
POINT SPREADS
TIME MIA LAL 01/13 10:22 AM +1 -110 -1 +100 01/13 10:21 AM +1 -105 -1 -105 01/13 10:21 AM +1½ -108 -1½ -102 01/13 10:20 AM +1½ -105 -1½ -105 01/13 10:19 AM +2 -105 -2 -105
Looks like I'm not the only one
Comment
