People's Champ's and Mafia Leans for Wednesday 03/25/2009

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #36
    I sure wish that I had your sportsbook haserfauld. If I had that line I would take San Diego State down to -1.5. It's 3.5 everywhere else right now though...
    Comment
    • Smogs
      SBR MVP
      • 12-31-08
      • 4173

      #37
      MIN TWolves @ PHI 76ers
      MIN TWolves+10.0 (Point Spread) @ 47/50
      Not much can be said for defending Minnesota, they are terrible - 20-51 record. However, they match up well in this spot. They own Philly, winning 4 of the last 5 and given that the spread hasn\'t been this high - or beaten in 5 years, I believe the \'pups can get something here. There ats away record is 21-13-1, very profitable Philly aren't very good ats either 15-18-1

      Under+201.0 (Game Totals) @ 47/50 Bit of a tasty one here, Philly have scored over 100 in their last 4 games, however, they haven\'t gone over 100 in 5 straight games all season. Coupled in with the fact they are playing their 6th game in 9 days off a west coast road trip and they will be slow out the blocks. The line for this matchup is usually high 180's and the 200 pts mark has only been beaten twice in the last 10 h2h. Massive value considering Minny are averaging 85 pts their last 5 games.
      Comment
      • haserfauld
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 12-12-08
        • 957

        #38
        Originally posted by cocknocker
        I sure wish that I had your sportsbook haserfauld. If I had that line I would take San Diego State down to -1.5. It's 3.5 everywhere else right now though...
        thanks, bought the point and went fairly heavy. GL guys!

        Funny story, I started 2nd half of the NFL season last year after "mock" betting the first half and finding myself up quite a bit. I ended up +8 units for the season, and though I'd give NBA a try. After going down to about +6 units from my bankroll, I decided NBA wasn't for me, and withdrew my money to use on stocks (can you say citibank at $1/share?). My sportsbook called me repeatedly asking if I'd like to redeposit, and I turned them down. Right before march madness they called me to tell me they put a $20 free play as a courtesy into my account and that if I wanted to deposit they'd give me some ludicrous bonus. I still turned them down but thanked them for the free play. After doing some reading, I went all in ($20 lol) on one of CK's heavy plays, and hit it. Of course I didn't get the free play money back so then I had $18ish. Tailing CK I have now turned that $18 into $380, the first 6 plays or so were all-in (since it wasn't my money anyway).

        So I fade whoever says CK is a middle-of-the-road capper
        Comment
        • mehow
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 01-26-09
          • 698

          #39
          pho -3 (for me the biggest play today)
          atl -6,5 (sa is dbd, weak performance against warriors)
          ind -1
          no -4,5
          cha -6,5
          bos +3,5
          min +10

          good luck!
          Comment
          • solobass
            SBR MVP
            • 01-15-09
            • 1277

            #40
            Originally posted by stakagrp
            My buddy has been playing "Moneyline Parlays" and seems to be hitting very nicely. A matter of fact it has been doing so well that our local book wouldn't let us play teams with moneylines over -800 in our parlays. Even though the parlays don't pay out quite as well, but with the season ending, certain teams seem to be almost guaranteed wins. Any thoughts from the board as to which teams look good winning straight up?

            Min+10 Phi wins su, but maybe too big of a spread for them to cover.
            Mil+3 Still fighting for a possible spot in the playoffs. Besides, Tor still sucks no matter where they play.
            NJ+12.5 Shorthanded team but just won't give in with the possibility for 8th spot in the playoffs. Been beaten twice already by Cleveland so maybe another loss but a backdoor cover.
            Nyk-7
            Bos+3.5
            Gsw+9.5
            Pho-3.5

            All possibilities, but nothing locked in for tomorrow. I'm all ears for the board's input on picks and please, if there are any picks for straight up wins for me to put in my moneyline parlay for today, post them. Thanks!
            not a bad position, as i have been doing the same for the past few weeks. my big plays have a lot more $$$ than these, but it is much easier to cap a SU winner and is a great hedge/fallback position if your favorite does not cover you can make your $ back in the parlay.
            Comment
            • solobass
              SBR MVP
              • 01-15-09
              • 1277

              #41
              Originally posted by King_Bookie
              Nobody likes all-in bets, because it decides major things. But I am a risk-taker by nature as shown by the play for Atlanta (which barely covered the spread).

              I treat this play as a pair of 5, hoping for the enemy to have no combination whatsoever.

              man that hawks/cavs game still grinds my gears but oh well.....again good call on that one. best of luck today!
              Comment
              • repski
                SBR MVP
                • 02-01-09
                • 1929

                #42
                Interesting Stat

                Last year Clevland went under 14 of their last 17 as a home favorite after the All-Star break...this year they are seven out of 8 under in the same category.....showing they are getting ready for Playoff defense....
                tonight fits the criteria
                Comment
                • repski
                  SBR MVP
                  • 02-01-09
                  • 1929

                  #43
                  Charlotte -6.5

                  -Charlotte has won and covered 4 straight over Washington.
                  -Charlotte is 8-1 ATS their last 9 vs. teams with a winning percentage of less than .400
                  -Charlotte is 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a favorite.
                  -Wash has lost 8 of 10 SU....five in a row.
                  -Wash is has covered only one of their last 5 @ home
                  -Washington is 1-10 ATS following a ATS win.
                  -Wash has covered only 4 of their last 21 vs Southeast Conf.

                  -Charlotte is only 1 game behind Chicago for the 8th spot in the east....Washington may be distracted with talk of Arenas's return on Saturday
                  Comment
                  • solobass
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-15-09
                    • 1277

                    #44
                    man i was hoping the heat would be installed as the favorite and take the dog ML.......but alas i will take what i can.

                    right now my card is shaping up like this
                    Magic ML they might not cover, they might cover but either way i have them capped as the SU winner
                    Jazz +3.5 pending on williams/okur b2b, WHO CARES. sure the suns are #1 in offensive efficiency but sacrifice gifts to their opponents who play decent D. Utah might win this one SU, but i am taking the points
                    Cavs -12.5 you all are getting sucked into the big number without actually capping the game. devin harris is out, plus news flash vince carter could really care less. they play pretty much around the same pace, and there is a 54% differential between the cavs home and nets road winning %. look for the cavs to look like champs tonight against the sad sack nets.
                    T-Wolves +10 here the number is too big. really the 76ers should be about an 8.5 pt fav for even money i believe.

                    i have more coming, best of luck tonight
                    Comment
                    • solobass
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-15-09
                      • 1277

                      #45
                      ok you always hear me bitching about how nobody talks math here but it is near the end of the season so i can start sharing parts of my main nba capping formula. first of all it takes about 20-30 minutes per game to calculate everything, because of everything that gets factored in. basically i project the line using 4 different methods, and a whole host of other tools such as THC (true home court coefficient) and various pace data. here is my formula for line projection method #1

                      go to the nba standings and subtract the favorite's winning percentage from the dog's winning percentage and drop the decimal. divide this number by 23. add 2.25 points to the home team. this will give you the result for projected line #1, and it gets averaged with the result of 3 other formulas for the final result for what i call method #1.

                      in my capping, method #1 and method #2 share some data but are largely independent. they must both calculate to be on the same side of the ATS betting equation for there to be a play. for example yesterday for the spurs who were an 8.5 pt fav, method #1 resulted with a final result of 8.47 and method #2 result was 10.11. because they did not agree, it was not a play and hells bells what do you know the spurs did not cover and almost lost SU. based on the results of a few of the formulas (if there are large negative numbers) it gives me an inkling of an upset or a big fav (like philly tonight) not covering.
                      Comment
                      • repski
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-01-09
                        • 1929

                        #46
                        Minnesota +10

                        -The DAWG in the Minnesota-Philadelphia series is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons
                        -Minnesota is 10-2-1 ATS since January 1st when an underdog of 8 or more points.
                        -over the past 2 seasons Minn is 15-3-1 ATS on the road when receiving 10 or more points
                        -Since December the Sixers are 0-5 ATS when laying 8 or more pts.

                        -over the last 2 months teams coming home in their first game after 5 on the road laying more than 5pts are 0-5 ATS...

                        -All NBA road teams (non-conf.) who have lost 5 or more in a row are 7-0 ATS

                        this is a LDK no tail bet...
                        Comment
                        • Odraca
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 01-09-09
                          • 265

                          #47
                          1-3

                          Minn +10
                          cleveland under 188.5

                          no write up needed.

                          im also doing small on ML minnesota +450 cuz they are due for a win
                          Comment
                          • stakagrp
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 01-05-09
                            • 237

                            #48
                            Make sure everyone takes a look into injuries for today.

                            On sportsnetwork.com injuries are:

                            Nene is out for Denver for disciplinary action
                            Marquis Daniels out
                            Ridnour out
                            Ginobli and Duncan listed as questionable

                            Many others as probable and questionable so take a look for yourself. Most likely when listed as probable and questionable make the assumption that they're playing because most likely than not they always show up.
                            Comment
                            • SportsTerminator
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-18-09
                              • 5179

                              #49
                              Originally posted by repski
                              Minnesota +10

                              -The DAWG in the Minnesota-Philadelphia series is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons
                              -Minnesota is 10-2-1 ATS since January 1st when an underdog of 8 or more points.
                              -over the past 2 seasons Minn is 15-3-1 ATS on the road when receiving 10 or more points
                              -Since December the Sixers are 0-5 ATS when laying 8 or more pts.

                              -over the last 2 months teams coming home in their first game after 5 on the road laying more than 5pts are 0-5 ATS...

                              -All NBA road teams (non-conf.) who have lost 5 or more in a row are 7-0 ATS

                              this is a LDK no tail bet...
                              Your missing one thing... that was with AL JEFFERSON.
                              Bet To Win
                              Comment
                              • solobass
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-15-09
                                • 1277

                                #50
                                fading teams coming home off a 4 or 5 game road trip is a Dex specialty he is the man on that angle
                                Comment
                                • isiah121
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-04-08
                                  • 313

                                  #51
                                  Which site is best for checking for sports insights?
                                  Comment
                                  • TheLemonDropKid
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 02-02-09
                                    • 1501

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by repski
                                    Minnesota +10

                                    -The DAWG in the Minnesota-Philadelphia series is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons
                                    -Minnesota is 10-2-1 ATS since January 1st when an underdog of 8 or more points.
                                    -over the past 2 seasons Minn is 15-3-1 ATS on the road when receiving 10 or more points
                                    -Since December the Sixers are 0-5 ATS when laying 8 or more pts.

                                    -over the last 2 months teams coming home in their first game after 5 on the road laying more than 5pts are 0-5 ATS...

                                    -All NBA road teams (non-conf.) who have lost 5 or more in a row are 7-0 ATS

                                    this is a LDK no tail bet...


                                    LOL!!!!!!!! I HEARD THAT! And I was just thinking to myself......"damn, once again Repski's got some hella write-ups I would like to tail him on...."

                                    That Twolves play seems to be the consensus today.....

                                    I guess I might take it easy on you and not play it...
                                    Comment
                                    • repski
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-01-09
                                      • 1929

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                      LOL!!!!!!!! I HEARD THAT! And I was just thinking to myself......"damn, once again Repski's got some hella write-ups I would like to tail him on...."

                                      That Twolves play seems to be the consensus today.....

                                      I guess I might take it easy on you and not play it...
                                      I knew you were lurking...
                                      Comment
                                      • Madetowin
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-07-09
                                        • 1373

                                        #54
                                        Seems like a pretty easy play today Minn. Sixers covering ten pts would be a miracle on it's own.
                                        Comment
                                        • dennisback
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-13-09
                                          • 650

                                          #55
                                          minnesota sux ass since feb they are 4-17 or sth su and this will be a blow out at least by 11 ! first quarter philly will lead by 5+
                                          Comment
                                          • Madetowin
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-07-09
                                            • 1373

                                            #56
                                            Minnesota was down 24 with 2:20in 4th Quarter in the Atlanta game and covered there 12 pt spread. So I think Minnesota can hang on to this one. Plus, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. Philly coming home from the West coast travel. I don't know there
                                            Comment
                                            • TheLemonDropKid
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-02-09
                                              • 1501

                                              #57
                                              CK MAFIA WAKE-UP CALL!!

                                              Hey guys.....I think it's time for us to set some personal guidelines/parameters and have enough discipline to STICK TO THEM!

                                              We are all on here for ONE PURPOSE....and that's to make money!

                                              Do you make money at this by taking excessive action on several different events? NO.

                                              This is just one of several mistakes that I think we collectively make here.

                                              Another mistake we make (speaking specifically of NBA) is focusing too much of our attention on SIDES and not TOTALS. NBA Totals are a books nightmare. We should come together as a unit and put together some systems that help us capitalize on the books weakness......TOTALS!

                                              We should all be playing no more than 3 plays per day with 2 of those being TOTALS and the other being a SIDE.

                                              This isn't a frickin' office pool.....this is serious shit.

                                              I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't have money to be pissing away.

                                              I know this NBA season is coming to a close, but I just hope we become more focused like a wagering sniper instead of shooting at everything that moves with a 12-guage shotgun leaving no meat for eating........and this goes for any sport.

                                              I'm not saying there's no time for joking around (I like to clown more than anyone here), I'm just saying that our wagers should be exact, precise, and sharp.

                                              Okay....I'll get off the soapbox now.....but can I get an AMEN???
                                              Comment
                                              • solobass
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-15-09
                                                • 1277

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                                CK MAFIA WAKE-UP CALL!!

                                                Hey guys.....I think it's time for us to set some personal guidelines/parameters and have enough discipline to STICK TO THEM!

                                                We are all on here for ONE PURPOSE....and that's to make money!

                                                Do you make money at this by taking excessive action on several different events? NO.

                                                This is just one of several mistakes that I think we collectively make here.

                                                Another mistake we make (speaking specifically of NBA) is focusing too much of our attention on SIDES and not TOTALS. NBA Totals are a books nightmare. We should come together as a unit and put together some systems that help us capitalize on the books weakness......TOTALS!

                                                We should all be playing no more than 3 plays per day with 2 of those being TOTALS and the other being a SIDE.

                                                This isn't a frickin' office pool.....this is serious shit.

                                                I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't have money to be pissing away.

                                                I know this NBA season is coming to a close, but I just hope we become more focused like a wagering sniper instead of shooting at everything that moves with a 12-guage shotgun leaving no meat for eating........and this goes for any sport.

                                                I'm not saying there's no time for joking around (I like to clown more than anyone here), I'm just saying that our wagers should be exact, precise, and sharp.

                                                Okay....I'll get off the soapbox now.....but can I get an AMEN???

                                                word, i hear you brother. bottom line, nobody really shares their capping methodology and whenever i want to talk math all i get is crickets.
                                                Comment
                                                • The_Kid
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-09-08
                                                  • 5049

                                                  #59
                                                  Amen, LemonDrop. I wanted to take a break and regroup myself but I just had to post this. I'm taking Minnesota ML tonight. I already see that King_Bookie is all in with the +10 but I think Minnesota can pull out a victory. Philly is coming off a long West Coast trip and the ML isn't correlating with the spread. I think a lot of people are putting Philly in their ML parlays to reduce the juice. A spread of -10/+10 should have a ML of -450/+325 but I just put a little something on the T'Wolves ML at +535. Wow! Looking back at their past history, Minnesota has actually done quite well against the 76ers. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-1 SU in the last 5 meetings. I don't know but I think this has a great shot. Good luck to everyone tonight!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • tommyminh
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 03-19-09
                                                    • 208

                                                    #60
                                                    i hate chicago game last night chicago-5 plus 189.5, i lost by 1/2 point i was pick under 189.5 danm
                                                    Comment
                                                    • suckatmyjob
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 02-12-09
                                                      • 785

                                                      #61
                                                      seems like tonight the majority in this thread is on the following: (i maybe wrong)

                                                      Atlanta
                                                      Minnesota
                                                      Dallas

                                                      cbb San Diego St
                                                      Comment
                                                      • stakagrp
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 01-05-09
                                                        • 237

                                                        #62
                                                        I hope minnesota cashes in. Minny has been tailing in all games by a huge margin but in the end they end up pushing on certain lines from different books or getting the backdoor cover on big spreads as of late.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • tommyminh
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 03-19-09
                                                          • 208

                                                          #63
                                                          hey CK are u still on the road or u at home ?
                                                          who u challenge with tonight?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • csimmalavong
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 08-22-08
                                                            • 1039

                                                            #64
                                                            i could see minny covering, they look real enticing teased up to +18 lol
                                                            but philly will win in the end...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • suckatmyjob
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 02-12-09
                                                              • 785

                                                              #65
                                                              U201 min/philly
                                                              o216 lac/nyk

                                                              Orl -3.5 big
                                                              Minnesota +10 big
                                                              Indiana -1

                                                              San Diego State -3 big
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RoagBettor
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 01-20-09
                                                                • 8355

                                                                #66
                                                                I don't understand the San Diego State pick. St. Mary's has Mills back and he's playing well. Had they not lost him they could have been undefeated or just a couple of losses. They've already beaten SDS and they have something to prove not getting selected to the Big Dance.

                                                                What am I missing?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • tommyminh
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 03-19-09
                                                                  • 208

                                                                  #67
                                                                  dam i didnt know that basketball it so dif then football, basketball i just learn about 1 month but i havent get any clue yet, but football is so easy, as long their Def is strong the game will score less, if weak againts good the game will be easy to pick but basketball look to me is like everyone play off and def.....dam
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Pick'nParlays
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-22-08
                                                                    • 3134

                                                                    #68
                                                                    gsw always plays dallas well for some reason. -9.5? i dont think im gonna play that one
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • The_Kid
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-09-08
                                                                      • 5049

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Karayilan, you liking the Bobcats for the 1Q against the Wizards?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • heyheyhey
                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                        • 12-31-08
                                                                        • 77

                                                                        #70
                                                                        twolves +3.5 1Q
                                                                        i know philly winning 61% 1Q and MN 35% but seems like all teams that play my boys play down to their level until 2H, so im rollin with 1Q and staying away from game line and halves, gl

                                                                        EDITED: also like over 23 pt
                                                                        Comment
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