I sure wish that I had your sportsbook haserfauld. If I had that line I would take San Diego State down to -1.5. It's 3.5 everywhere else right now though...
-
Comment -
MIN TWolves @ PHI 76ers
MIN TWolves+10.0 (Point Spread) @ 47/50
Not much can be said for defending Minnesota, they are terrible - 20-51 record. However, they match up well in this spot. They own Philly, winning 4 of the last 5 and given that the spread hasn\'t been this high - or beaten in 5 years, I believe the \'pups can get something here. There ats away record is 21-13-1, very profitable Philly aren't very good ats either 15-18-1
Under+201.0 (Game Totals) @ 47/50 Bit of a tasty one here, Philly have scored over 100 in their last 4 games, however, they haven\'t gone over 100 in 5 straight games all season. Coupled in with the fact they are playing their 6th game in 9 days off a west coast road trip and they will be slow out the blocks. The line for this matchup is usually high 180's and the 200 pts mark has only been beaten twice in the last 10 h2h. Massive value considering Minny are averaging 85 pts their last 5 games.Comment -
thanks, bought the point and went fairly heavy. GL guys!
Funny story, I started 2nd half of the NFL season last year after "mock" betting the first half and finding myself up quite a bit. I ended up +8 units for the season, and though I'd give NBA a try. After going down to about +6 units from my bankroll, I decided NBA wasn't for me, and withdrew my money to use on stocks (can you say citibank at $1/share?). My sportsbook called me repeatedly asking if I'd like to redeposit, and I turned them down. Right before march madness they called me to tell me they put a $20 free play as a courtesy into my account and that if I wanted to deposit they'd give me some ludicrous bonus. I still turned them down but thanked them for the free play. After doing some reading, I went all in ($20 lol) on one of CK's heavy plays, and hit it. Of course I didn't get the free play money back so then I had $18ish. Tailing CK I have now turned that $18 into $380, the first 6 plays or so were all-in (since it wasn't my money anyway).
So I fade whoever says CK is a middle-of-the-road capper
Comment -
pho -3 (for me the biggest play today)
atl -6,5 (sa is dbd, weak performance against warriors)
ind -1
no -4,5
cha -6,5
bos +3,5
min +10
good luck!Comment -
not a bad position, as i have been doing the same for the past few weeks. my big plays have a lot more $$$ than these, but it is much easier to cap a SU winner and is a great hedge/fallback position if your favorite does not cover you can make your $ back in the parlay.Comment -
Interesting Stat
Last year Clevland went under 14 of their last 17 as a home favorite after the All-Star break...this year they are seven out of 8 under in the same category.....showing they are getting ready for Playoff defense....
tonight fits the criteriaComment -
Charlotte -6.5
-Charlotte has won and covered 4 straight over Washington.
-Charlotte is 8-1 ATS their last 9 vs. teams with a winning percentage of less than .400
-Charlotte is 9-2 ATS their last 11 as a favorite.
-Wash has lost 8 of 10 SU....five in a row.
-Wash is has covered only one of their last 5 @ home
-Washington is 1-10 ATS following a ATS win.
-Wash has covered only 4 of their last 21 vs Southeast Conf.
-Charlotte is only 1 game behind Chicago for the 8th spot in the east....Washington may be distracted with talk of Arenas's return on Saturday
Comment -
man i was hoping the heat would be installed as the favorite and take the dog ML.......but alas i will take what i can.
right now my card is shaping up like this
Magic ML they might not cover, they might cover but either way i have them capped as the SU winner
Jazz +3.5 pending on williams/okur b2b, WHO CARES. sure the suns are #1 in offensive efficiency but sacrifice gifts to their opponents who play decent D. Utah might win this one SU, but i am taking the points
Cavs -12.5 you all are getting sucked into the big number without actually capping the game. devin harris is out, plus news flash vince carter could really care less. they play pretty much around the same pace, and there is a 54% differential between the cavs home and nets road winning %. look for the cavs to look like champs tonight against the sad sack nets.
T-Wolves +10 here the number is too big. really the 76ers should be about an 8.5 pt fav for even money i believe.
i have more coming, best of luck tonightComment -
ok you always hear me bitching about how nobody talks math here but it is near the end of the season so i can start sharing parts of my main nba capping formula. first of all it takes about 20-30 minutes per game to calculate everything, because of everything that gets factored in. basically i project the line using 4 different methods, and a whole host of other tools such as THC (true home court coefficient) and various pace data. here is my formula for line projection method #1
go to the nba standings and subtract the favorite's winning percentage from the dog's winning percentage and drop the decimal. divide this number by 23. add 2.25 points to the home team. this will give you the result for projected line #1, and it gets averaged with the result of 3 other formulas for the final result for what i call method #1.
in my capping, method #1 and method #2 share some data but are largely independent. they must both calculate to be on the same side of the ATS betting equation for there to be a play. for example yesterday for the spurs who were an 8.5 pt fav, method #1 resulted with a final result of 8.47 and method #2 result was 10.11. because they did not agree, it was not a play and hells bells what do you know the spurs did not cover and almost lost SU. based on the results of a few of the formulas (if there are large negative numbers) it gives me an inkling of an upset or a big fav (like philly tonight) not covering.Comment -
Minnesota +10
-The DAWG in the Minnesota-Philadelphia series is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 4 seasons
-Minnesota is 10-2-1 ATS since January 1st when an underdog of 8 or more points.
-over the past 2 seasons Minn is 15-3-1 ATS on the road when receiving 10 or more points
-Since December the Sixers are 0-5 ATS when laying 8 or more pts.
-over the last 2 months teams coming home in their first game after 5 on the road laying more than 5pts are 0-5 ATS...
-All NBA road teams (non-conf.) who have lost 5 or more in a row are 7-0 ATS
this is a LDK no tail bet...Comment -
1-3
Minn +10
cleveland under 188.5
no write up needed.
im also doing small on ML minnesota +450 cuz they are due for a winComment -
Make sure everyone takes a look into injuries for today.
On sportsnetwork.com injuries are:
Nene is out for Denver for disciplinary action
Marquis Daniels out
Ridnour out
Ginobli and Duncan listed as questionable
Many others as probable and questionable so take a look for yourself. Most likely when listed as probable and questionable make the assumption that they're playing because most likely than not they always show up.Comment -
fading teams coming home off a 4 or 5 game road trip is a Dex specialty he is the man on that angleComment -
Which site is best for checking for sports insights?Comment -
Seems like a pretty easy play today Minn. Sixers covering ten pts would be a miracle on it's own.Comment -
minnesota sux ass since feb they are 4-17 or sth su and this will be a blow out at least by 11 ! first quarter philly will lead by 5+Comment -
Minnesota was down 24 with 2:20in 4th Quarter in the Atlanta game and covered there 12 pt spread. So I think Minnesota can hang on to this one. Plus, Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. Philly coming home from the West coast travel. I don't know thereComment -
CK MAFIA WAKE-UP CALL!!
Hey guys.....I think it's time for us to set some personal guidelines/parameters and have enough discipline to STICK TO THEM!
We are all on here for ONE PURPOSE....and that's to make money!
Do you make money at this by taking excessive action on several different events? NO.
This is just one of several mistakes that I think we collectively make here.
Another mistake we make (speaking specifically of NBA) is focusing too much of our attention on SIDES and not TOTALS. NBA Totals are a books nightmare. We should come together as a unit and put together some systems that help us capitalize on the books weakness......TOTALS!
We should all be playing no more than 3 plays per day with 2 of those being TOTALS and the other being a SIDE.
This isn't a frickin' office pool.....this is serious shit.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I don't have money to be pissing away.
I know this NBA season is coming to a close, but I just hope we become more focused like a wagering sniper instead of shooting at everything that moves with a 12-guage shotgun leaving no meat for eating........and this goes for any sport.
I'm not saying there's no time for joking around (I like to clown more than anyone here), I'm just saying that our wagers should be exact, precise, and sharp.
Okay....I'll get off the soapbox now.....but can I get an AMEN???Comment -
Amen, LemonDrop. I wanted to take a break and regroup myself but I just had to post this. I'm taking Minnesota ML tonight. I already see that King_Bookie is all in with the +10 but I think Minnesota can pull out a victory. Philly is coming off a long West Coast trip and the ML isn't correlating with the spread. I think a lot of people are putting Philly in their ML parlays to reduce the juice. A spread of -10/+10 should have a ML of -450/+325 but I just put a little something on the T'Wolves ML at +535. Wow! Looking back at their past history, Minnesota has actually done quite well against the 76ers. They are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-1 SU in the last 5 meetings. I don't know but I think this has a great shot. Good luck to everyone tonight!Comment -
i hate chicago game last night chicago-5 plus 189.5, i lost by 1/2 point i was pick under 189.5 danmComment -
seems like tonight the majority in this thread is on the following: (i maybe wrong)
Atlanta
Minnesota
Dallas
cbb San Diego StComment -
I hope minnesota cashes in. Minny has been tailing in all games by a huge margin but in the end they end up pushing on certain lines from different books or getting the backdoor cover on big spreads as of late.Comment -
hey CK are u still on the road or u at home ?
who u challenge with tonight?Comment -
i could see minny covering, they look real enticing teased up to +18 lol
but philly will win in the end...Comment -
U201 min/philly
o216 lac/nyk
Orl -3.5 big
Minnesota +10 big
Indiana -1
San Diego State -3 bigComment -
I don't understand the San Diego State pick. St. Mary's has Mills back and he's playing well. Had they not lost him they could have been undefeated or just a couple of losses. They've already beaten SDS and they have something to prove not getting selected to the Big Dance.
What am I missing?Comment -
dam i didnt know that basketball it so dif then football, basketball i just learn about 1 month but i havent get any clue yet, but football is so easy, as long their Def is strong the game will score less, if weak againts good the game will be easy to pick but basketball look to me is like everyone play off and def.....damComment -
gsw always plays dallas well for some reason. -9.5? i dont think im gonna play that oneComment -
Karayilan, you liking the Bobcats for the 1Q against the Wizards?Comment -
twolves +3.5 1Q
i know philly winning 61% 1Q and MN 35% but seems like all teams that play my boys play down to their level until 2H, so im rollin with 1Q and staying away from game line and halves, gl
EDITED: also like over 23 ptComment
