help me hedge this?

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  • iceman02
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-05-12
    • 736

    #1
    help me hedge this?
    I have a futures thunder vs miami matchup

    I put 600 to win 1364

    What should I do to hedge this bet?

    Should I leave game 6 alone and then bet on spurs so I can make profit on whoever wins?
  • GoBlue77
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 03-20-11
    • 9166

    #2
    ride it out. you're screwed
    Comment
    • iceman02
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 03-05-12
      • 736

      #3
      Originally posted by GoBlue77
      ride it out. you're screwed
      Screwed? If this goes to game 7 im granteed some profits by just placing a bet on spurs. I dont think you understand what hedging is
      Comment
      • jtoler
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-17-13
        • 30967

        #4
        You call your bank and tell them someone stole your card.
        Comment
        • GoBlue77
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 03-20-11
          • 9166

          #5
          Originally posted by iceman02
          Screwed? If this goes to game 7 im granteed some profits by just placing a bet on spurs. I dont think you understand what hedging is
          no you're not noob.

          theres this thing called point spread. OKC could cover but Spurs win.
          Comment
          • iceman02
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-05-12
            • 736

            #6
            Originally posted by GoBlue77
            no you're not noob.

            theres this thing called point spread. OKC could cover but Spurs win.
            I was gonna place it on spurs money line their projected line is -130 opening game 7
            Comment
            • GoBlue77
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 03-20-11
              • 9166

              #7
              Originally posted by iceman02
              I was gonna place it on spurs money line their projected line is -130 opening game 7
              no chance in hell it will be close to that number. personally i think theres a good chance it ends tonight. i'd go spurs ML tonight if i were you
              Comment
              • iceman02
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 03-05-12
                • 736

                #8
                Originally posted by GoBlue77
                no chance in hell it will be close to that number. personally i think theres a good chance it ends tonight. i'd go spurs ML tonight if i were you
                Theres even a better chance thunder wins next 2. If thunder wins tonight gsme 7 is better for the young and more talented thunder. Spurs are too old to beat this squad in 7 games.
                Comment
                • KRIT
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-11-14
                  • 12878

                  #9
                  Originally posted by iceman02
                  Theres even a better chance thunder wins next 2. If thunder wins tonight gsme 7 is better for the young and more talented thunder. Spurs are too old to beat this squad in 7 games.
                  I don't understand your thought proccess Ice. How did the younger and more talented Thunder fair in game 5? If anything, I'd give the edge to the veteran Spurs in game 7, not to mention they'll have homecourt. I don't have the stats for it, but home teams win game 7 at a very high rate.
                  Comment
                  • iceman02
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 03-05-12
                    • 736

                    #10
                    Thunder is what now 6-1 against spurs with ibaka all 6 of those games being non competitive.

                    Spurs got a 2 game handicap to start the series with ibaka out of their line.
                    Comment
                    • jtoler
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-17-13
                      • 30967

                      #11
                      Originally posted by iceman02
                      Thunder is what now 6-1 against spurs with ibaka all 6 of those games being non competitive.

                      Spurs got a 2 game handicap to start the series with ibaka out of their line.
                      Explain kid how Game 7 would be -130.
                      Comment
                      • GoBlue77
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-20-11
                        • 9166

                        #12
                        Originally posted by jtoler
                        Explain kid how Game 7 would be -130.
                        don't bother. some are always lost...
                        Comment
                        • sballen
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 02-26-14
                          • 815

                          #13
                          Originally posted by iceman02
                          I have a futures thunder vs miami matchup

                          I put 600 to win 1364

                          What should I do to hedge this bet?

                          Should I leave game 6 alone and then bet on spurs so I can make profit on whoever wins?
                          I dont think its possibly to hedge in this scenario and guarantee yourself a profit. Essentially youd have to take SA moneyline both game 6 and game 7 (if it goes to game 7). there's three scenarios that can occur; a) spurs win tonight b) okc wins tonight and spurs win game 7, and c) okc wins both games 6 and 7

                          I wasn't going to respond as you should be smart enough to figure out how to hedge this, but given how worthless all the other posters have been i feel obligated to help you out. Here's how you would hedge:

                          Scenario a)
                          game6: take spurs ml for +140 (thats what my book has it at so ill use that ml value). Bet 600 to win 840, if this situation occurs then you net $240 (win $840 minus $600 loss on your future bet).

                          scenario b)
                          game6: take spurs ml for +140 for $600. Spurs lose this game and it goes to game 7. Currently down $600
                          game 7: take spurs ml (cant determine what ml will be yet so lets estimate its at -150 as that would be my best guess). You have to wager $900 to win $600 in this scenario but you are still net down (loss of $600 on future bet and loss of $600 on game 6, win $600 on game 7 but youre still net down $600).

                          scenario c)
                          Same as sceanario b except okc wins game7. You win $1364 from your future bet but you still lose $1500 from you game 6 & 7 bets (loss of $600 game 6 and $900 loss in game 7). Net down $136.

                          you can play with the numbers a bit to change up values, but as you can see there's no way to hedge and guarantee a profit. My advice to you is to just ride out game 6 and hope the thunder win and you can hedge in game 7.
                          Comment
                          • brendon
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 12-10-09
                            • 443

                            #14
                            ride it out like Goblue77 said. game 7 spurs would be around -220 moneyline.
                            Comment
                            • GoBlue77
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-20-11
                              • 9166

                              #15
                              Originally posted by sballen
                              I dont think its possibly to hedge in this scenario and guarantee yourself a profit. Essentially youd have to take SA moneyline both game 6 and game 7 (if it goes to game 7). there's three scenarios that can occur; a) spurs win tonight b) okc wins tonight and spurs win game 7, and c) okc wins both games 6 and 7

                              I wasn't going to respond as you should be smart enough to figure out how to hedge this, but given how worthless all the other posters have been i feel obligated to help you out. Here's how you would hedge:

                              Scenario a)
                              game6: take spurs ml for +140 (thats what my book has it at so ill use that ml value). Bet 600 to win 840, if this situation occurs then you net $240 (win $840 minus $600 loss on your future bet).

                              scenario b)
                              game6: take spurs ml for +140 for $600. Spurs lose this game and it goes to game 7. Currently down $600
                              game 7: take spurs ml (cant determine what ml will be yet so lets estimate its at -150 as that would be my best guess). You have to wager $900 to win $600 in this scenario but you are still net down (loss of $600 on future bet and loss of $600 on game 6, win $600 on game 7 but youre still net down $600).

                              scenario c)
                              Same as sceanario b except okc wins game7. You win $1364 from your future bet but you still lose $1500 from you game 6 & 7 bets (loss of $600 game 6 and $900 loss in game 7). Net down $136.

                              you can play with the numbers a bit to change up values, but as you can see there's no way to hedge and guarantee a profit. My advice to you is to just ride out game 6 and hope the thunder win and you can hedge in game 7.
                              thanks for repeating what i said already, learn how to read numbnuts . then you list a possible game 7 line at -150 lol. Pure comedy...
                              Comment
                              • sballen
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 02-26-14
                                • 815

                                #16
                                To further add to my post; its possible you won't be able to hedge in game 7 if spurs are much more than -200. Even at -200 (assuming you dont bet tonights game and okc wins) you barely make any money from a hedge as youd have to risk $1300 to win $650, which nets you a profit of $50 or $64 depending on the outcome of a game 7. Imo thats not even worth hedging.
                                Comment
                                • sballen
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 02-26-14
                                  • 815

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by GoBlue77
                                  thanks for repeating what i said already, learn how to read numbnuts . then you list a possible game 7 line at -150 lol. Pure comedy...
                                  Hey dipshit all you said was you're screwed. While that may be accurate that offers nothing of value to the OP....learn how to give a legitimate response fukkin numbnuts.
                                  Comment
                                  • gasto
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 12-30-11
                                    • 330

                                    #18
                                    You are in a tough spot. Do you have faith that OKC wins tonight. I think they will blow Spurs out. If you are ok with this you could take a risk by actually doing a two team open parlay. I am assuming you can like on 5dimes

                                    If OKC wins then close it out with Spurs as second pick. Probably end up getting something close to 500 or 600. It's tough because this would only work if OKC wins tonight so it's not a pure hedge. Just a suggestion but I do think OKC wins tonight
                                    Comment
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