Why did Pinny open Heat -6??

[t-wizzle]

Yes I know it's an elimination game but the Heat covered both games at home as 6 point faves (games in which they opened as 7 point faves).

Shouldn't they have opened -7 again here? And yes, I realize the line is now 7. The question is in regards to the opening line.

[Pauulzcappin]

grabbed -6.5

just happy about it no questions asked

[Seto]

do we really trust pinny anymore though?

i mean obviously i like the other side of this game but unrelated to that i've found pinny to be really off this year. maybe just an impression.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Sounds perfectly right.

[KRIT]

Good question. Maybe Pacers keep it close even though that's very hard to believe. This game could be similar to gm7 of last years ECF. Tight game through 3 quarters and Heat pull away in the 4th. That's pretty much what the Heat do.....go through the motions for 3 quarters, then put the foot on the gas in the 4th.

[Seto]

Good question. Maybe Pacers keep it close even though that's very hard to believe. This game could be similar to gm7 of last years ECF. Tight game through 3 quarters and Heat pull away in the 4th. That's pretty much what the Heat do.....go through the motions for 3 quarters, then put the foot on the gas in the 4th.

iirc last year's ecf was a 17 pt game at ht at 20+ at the end of the 3rd...

you must be thinking of another game? maybe the boston game in the ecf in 2012?

[KRIT]

iirc last year's ecf was a 17 pt game at ht at 20+ at the end of the 3rd...

you must be thinking of another game? maybe the boston game in the ecf in 2012?

Not sure what I'm talking about. Youre right though, that game wasn't even close. I think I bet Indiana in that game and got crushed.

[BigDofBA]

Pinny is wrong sometimes.

[cane]

An opener of 6 seemed low, it's up to 7.5 now, which seems about right.

[Swaggy P]

Pinny is wrong sometimes.

True. Dunno why some people put too much thought into the lines

[WalkingLuckCharm]

True. Dunno why some people put too much thought into the lines

Because in the world there is no other better capper than a bookie. Thus if you were to tail one guy in the world it'd be Vegas. Sometimes when you know what side they are on it is more valuable than your most confident pick

There are always 2 elements to capping. The first is what you think and the second is what the books think. To be the ultimate capper one must juxtapose to 2

[t-wizzle]

Pinny easily could have opened Heat -7. That's all I'm saying.

For all we know Miami could blow them out and the spread will never be an issue. Then again maybe it will be closer than people seem to think.

[amrit]

Wizzle are you gonna take Indy tomorrow?

[t-wizzle]

Wizzle are you gonna take Indy tomorrow?

I really have no idea yet and I probably won't make a decision until very late.

[Swaggy P]

Because in the world there is no other better capper than a bookie. Thus if you were to tail one guy in the world it'd be Vegas. Sometimes when you know what side they are on it is more valuable than your most confident pick

There are always 2 elements to capping. The first is what you think and the second is what the books think. To be the ultimate capper one must juxtapose to 2

And yet the "best capper in the world" is never 100% correct.

[Pauulzcappin]

Don't overthink this.

[Ralphalph]

To answer the original question...I think vegas knew the squares would go heavy on Miami anyway. So if it opened at -7, it would have maybe jumped to -8.5.

My prediction is Pacers pull off a straight up win. Pacers have been marvelous in elimination/high pressured games like this. I would take the points to be on the safe side. -7.5 is just too much. Take the points!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

And yet the "best capper in the world" is never 100% correct.

No you are right. However when it comes down to traps with bookie lines you'll find they win much more than that desired 55% that cappers desire.

It's a really dumb argument to state they don't know the outcome of every game. Just knowing the outcome of 1% of the games Is a substantial amount. That and added with juice the bookies are pretty much free rolling

[WalkingLuckCharm]

No you are right. However when it comes down to traps with bookie lines you'll find they win much more than that desired 55% that cappers desire.

It's a really dumb argument to state they don't know the outcome of every game. Just knowing the outcome of 1% of the games Is a substantial amount. That and added with juice the bookies are pretty much free rolling

How about today's 2h okc -1? The line itself was an indication of a blowout. You'd fail to recognise this for a second cos you don't read into lines

[Flagrant1]

Sounds like you're trying to convince yourself to take Indiana ats for the full game. It is intriguing, but I wouldn't do it because they've been entirely too schizophrenic in these playoffs. I would look at Indy first half ats though and then take Miami for the second half.

[t-wizzle]

To answer the original question...I think vegas knew the squares would go heavy on Miami anyway. So if it opened at -7, it would have maybe jumped to -8.5.

My prediction is Pacers pull off a straight up win. Pacers have been marvelous in elimination/high pressured games like this. I would take the points to be on the safe side. -7.5 is just too much. Take the points!

This is on point and I think you are probably right. Now the question is, did they do this because they don't want money on Pacers at a number like 8 or could it be that this spread will not end up mattering? It seems that most are expecting a blowout.

How about today's 2h okc -1? The line itself was an indication of a blowout. You'd fail to recognise this for a second cos you don't read into lines

Why would the second half line have been anything different? This was a typical second half line.

[Swaggy P]

No you are right. However when it comes down to traps with bookie lines you'll find they win much more than that desired 55% that cappers desire.

It's a really dumb argument to state they don't know the outcome of every game. Just knowing the outcome of 1% of the games Is a substantial amount. That and added with juice the bookies are pretty much free rolling

Who do you have for miami/indiana tomorrow?

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Miami ML as last leg of a parlay.

Nothing else. Probably leaning Miami but don't think I'll pull the trigger.

T-wizz..... are you being serious? ......
Try -4 to -5 being a standard line rofl. -1 to okc is just books BEGGING for okc money. How can you not see this?

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Hell. , T-wizz I'll go so far as to say even OKC +1 is less suss than -1.

[BigDofBA]

How about today's 2h okc -1? The line itself was an indication of a blowout. You'd fail to recognise this for a second cos you don't read into lines

That's what the line is about all the time given that situation but yeah, -1 is typically not a good bet there.

[jtoler]

Close out game, rationale is that Indy plays harder and possibly keep it close...if not win.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

That's what the line is about all the time given that situation but yeah, -1 is typically not a good bet there.

Precisely. You'll find these plays will lose way more than 55% of the time.

Oops read wrong. No it is not a standard line at all. It is just enticing betters to slam okc

[Seto]

Miami ML as last leg of a parlay.

Nothing else. Probably leaning Miami but don't think I'll pull the trigger.

T-wizz..... are you being serious? ......
Try -4 to -5 being a standard line rofl. -1 to okc is just books BEGGING for okc money. How can you not see this?

You're nuts with -4/-5. So you're saying that with the Spurs having a 10-point lead at ht the books would be allowing you to hop on the pre-game line at Spurs-5?

I'd somewhat agree -1 was a bit low, maybe -2 would've been more standard.

[Ralphalph]

This is on point and I think you are probably right. Now the question is, did they do this because they don't want money on Pacers at a number like 8 or could it be that this spread will not end up mattering? It seems that most are expecting a blowout.

In a hypothetical world, if it swung to high as -9 or -10pts favoring miami, no one would buy that. If that happened, the line would move aggressively 3pts back down to -6. Too ludicrous to lay that many points against a #1 seed, in an elimination game, and against a east coast rival. If pacers take a turn for the worst on this game and don't cover, then Vegas too will take a shit, as 70% of the public is on Miami...I'm still hesitant to pull the trigger, but I will likely pull the trigger on Pacer +7.5. I think sharps will take a bite and bring back down half a point to at least +7 before tip off.

As of now 90% of betters on the over 182.5 which is also astonishing, I think that's gonna be a big let down.

http://www.wunderdog.com/matchup/ind...y-30-2014.html (here are some percentages about where the public is at...A few other sites indicate the same trends.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Yeah you're right not 5. Not 2 either. 3 or 4 sounds about right imo.

I could be crazy man. I sometimes think I'm crazy with this line reading sh1t. But when I believe books are setting a trap I hit them a lot

[WalkingLuckCharm]

But none the less my point is its a trap line and screams blow out.

[Ralphalph]

Yeah you're right not 5. Not 2 either. 3 or 4 sounds about right imo.

I could be crazy man. I sometimes think I'm crazy with this line reading sh1t. But when I believe books are setting a trap I hit them a lot

I'm with you Lucky Charms...i've been in the biz for while now and I know Vegas loves these high profile games. Superbowl and NCAAB are prime examples as they made seahawks and Huskies the dogs.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

I'm with you Lucky Charms...i've been in the biz for while now and I know Vegas loves these high profile games. Superbowl was a prime example as they made seahawks the dogs.

Thanks man. I'm either getting ridiculously sharp or a little insane as people have been telling me. I'll stick with what my results have been telling me so far.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

I'm with you Lucky Charms...i've been in the biz for while now and I know Vegas loves these high profile games. Superbowl was a prime example as they made seahawks the dogs.

Furthermore the best games to fade are when the leagues best teams are down by like 10 points and they are offering something like -1 and -1.5 at the half

[Seto]

Yeah you're right not 5. Not 2 either. 3 or 4 sounds about right imo.

I could be crazy man. I sometimes think I'm crazy with this line reading sh1t. But when I believe books are setting a trap I hit them a lot

Definitely not 4 either. You really think the books would give you Spurs-6 when the Spurs were -5 and covered the first half by 7 points? Come on man.

Maybe -3. But that would be a very extreme line, probably an okc line if you wanted to read into it.