It’s becoming clear that sharps are cutting back on their aggressiveness here in Round Two of the 2014 NBA Playoffs. And, to the degree they may still be aggressive…that’s more likely to happen in the immediate hours right before tipoff rather than far enough in advance that we can write it up here on the VSM BLOG.
So, today will be our last “regularly scheduled” market report for the time being. We will break in with “special bulletins” in the coming days when the sharps are clearly stepping out and doing something dramatic on a side or total. This may only happen once every few days rather than daily given the schedules…and the degree to which oddsmakers are already in synch with Wise Guy preferences are are pricing accordingly.
Here’s what’s been happening up to publication time in Thursday Night’s doubleheader…
BROOKLYN AT MIAMI: Just before we went to press, what had been a fairly universal Miami -8 dropped to Miami -7.5. Sharps preferred Brooklyn in the bounce back spot…but were waiting to see if they might get a better line from public betting on the surging defending champions. That wasn’t playing out, and didn’t seem likely. So, Wise Guys took Brooklyn +8 figuring that was the best they were going to see. Perhaps square money will hit the Heat later in the day. That could create a tug-of-war between Miami -7.5 and Brooklyn +8. For now, we can tell you that sharps like Brooklyn +8.
The Over/Under hasn’t nudged from the opener of 192. The first game landed on 193 against a total of 192. No evidence that bettors should be getting involved in terms of matchups, trends, or modelling. The Wise Guys passed the total, and would fade any move caused by the public.
PORTLAND AT SAN ANTONIO: San Antonio opened at -7, and has largely stayed there ever since. There are some rumblings that sharp money is starting to hit Portland. As we go to press some stores are testing San Antonio -6.5. Sources tell us this is the same situation as above. Sharps were waiting to see what they could get with the dog. They generally want to play the historic tendency for bounce back dogs to play well after a bad Game One loss. You should know that sharps used to be MORE aggressive with this. In recent seasons, top teams have become more aggressive about trying to get things over with early so they could rest. This has diminished the impact of the bounce-back somewhat. That’s why you didn’t see big drops from the openers with Miami and San Antonio. The Wise Guys are betting for value rather than loading up.
The opening total of 207 is quietly rising. Some stores are showing 207.5, while others are showing 208. The first game landed on 208 even though Portland shot poorly and the two teams only combined for 11 made three-pointers. The matchup guys are expecting more treys and better shooting overall from the Blazers.
As we’ve mentioned before, you’re likely to see old-school guys betting Unders later in all four of the second round matchups. Right now, we’re just finishing off Game Two’s and getting ready for Game Three’s. That means pass or Over for most Wise Guy syndicates who get involved with totals.
That wraps up this final “scheduled” market report. We’ll pop in periodically from this point forword
So, today will be our last “regularly scheduled” market report for the time being. We will break in with “special bulletins” in the coming days when the sharps are clearly stepping out and doing something dramatic on a side or total. This may only happen once every few days rather than daily given the schedules…and the degree to which oddsmakers are already in synch with Wise Guy preferences are are pricing accordingly.
Here’s what’s been happening up to publication time in Thursday Night’s doubleheader…
BROOKLYN AT MIAMI: Just before we went to press, what had been a fairly universal Miami -8 dropped to Miami -7.5. Sharps preferred Brooklyn in the bounce back spot…but were waiting to see if they might get a better line from public betting on the surging defending champions. That wasn’t playing out, and didn’t seem likely. So, Wise Guys took Brooklyn +8 figuring that was the best they were going to see. Perhaps square money will hit the Heat later in the day. That could create a tug-of-war between Miami -7.5 and Brooklyn +8. For now, we can tell you that sharps like Brooklyn +8.
The Over/Under hasn’t nudged from the opener of 192. The first game landed on 193 against a total of 192. No evidence that bettors should be getting involved in terms of matchups, trends, or modelling. The Wise Guys passed the total, and would fade any move caused by the public.
PORTLAND AT SAN ANTONIO: San Antonio opened at -7, and has largely stayed there ever since. There are some rumblings that sharp money is starting to hit Portland. As we go to press some stores are testing San Antonio -6.5. Sources tell us this is the same situation as above. Sharps were waiting to see what they could get with the dog. They generally want to play the historic tendency for bounce back dogs to play well after a bad Game One loss. You should know that sharps used to be MORE aggressive with this. In recent seasons, top teams have become more aggressive about trying to get things over with early so they could rest. This has diminished the impact of the bounce-back somewhat. That’s why you didn’t see big drops from the openers with Miami and San Antonio. The Wise Guys are betting for value rather than loading up.
The opening total of 207 is quietly rising. Some stores are showing 207.5, while others are showing 208. The first game landed on 208 even though Portland shot poorly and the two teams only combined for 11 made three-pointers. The matchup guys are expecting more treys and better shooting overall from the Blazers.
As we’ve mentioned before, you’re likely to see old-school guys betting Unders later in all four of the second round matchups. Right now, we’re just finishing off Game Two’s and getting ready for Game Three’s. That means pass or Over for most Wise Guy syndicates who get involved with totals.
That wraps up this final “scheduled” market report. We’ll pop in periodically from this point forword
