Opening night of the second round looked just like the first round! Two road underdogs won outright, as oddsmakers once again showed that they’re having trouble capturing the essence of the playoffs in their pointspreads…but aren’t getting hurt by it because the public loves betting favorites!
Wednesday Night we have two favorites who are even more likely to get bet by the public. Last year’s conference champions Miami (East) and San Antonio (West) both take the floor for the first time in Round Two this evening, against Brooklyn and Portland respectively. You’ll see in our market report that Vegas lines have moved in the direction of those favorites in both games.
We’ll take them in tipoff order.
BROOKLYN AT MIAMI: An opener of Miami -7.5 has been bet up to -8. That’s a mix of sharps taking early positions against the public…and the public. Most Wise Guys are still thinking dog even though Miami was so impressive against Charlotte. Sources tell us that sharps may be waiting until Game Two to express their Brooklyn sentiment financially because the Heat are so well rested while the Nets are coming off a Sunday game. Of course, Wise Guys thinking that way regarding the Clippers missed out on an easy win Monday Night. Generally speaking sharps will be looking for value on Brooklyn as a dog in this series. It’s expected that the public will bet Miami unless the Heat juggernaut slows down.
The opening total of 191.5 was bet up to 192. As we discussed last night, smart money tends to go Over early in a series, then Under once you get to game five and beyond. Both of last night’s totals ended up going Over by double digits even though they had been bet higher. This game saw just a small move though. The math guys are largely out of the mix at this stage. We’ll probably stop mentioning them! Classic sharp betting strategy nudged this one a half a point higher, which isn’t much in historical context.
PORTLAND AT SAN ANTIONIO: The Spurs opened at -6.5, and were bet up to -7. We understand that sharp sentiment is much more aimed at Portland than at Brooklyn in these openers. In this case, they’re waiting to see the best number they can get. Portland is the rested team here, and San Antonio only won one game by more than this spread in the whole Dallas series (San Antonio was 1-6 ATS vs. the Mavericks, only covering the finale). Sharps will take +7 before tipoff if that’s the best they’re going to see. They’re hoping to see +7.5. This may be a series that shows a tug-of-war between sharps (Portland) and squares (San Antonio) most of the way through. Sharps will only bet the Spurs in bounce back spots, or at cheap prices on the road if the Blazers start to fade based on what sources are telling us.
The total has been bet up from 204.5 to 206.5. That’s a two-point move…and represents the sharpest move of the day in market terms. It’s telling that Brooklyn/Miami only nudged forward a half a point while this saw a much more dramatic move. Both teams shot very well in the last round. Both teams were soft inside during extended stretches because they were trying to avoid foul trouble. Big move to the Over in this one.
Wednesday Night we have two favorites who are even more likely to get bet by the public. Last year’s conference champions Miami (East) and San Antonio (West) both take the floor for the first time in Round Two this evening, against Brooklyn and Portland respectively. You’ll see in our market report that Vegas lines have moved in the direction of those favorites in both games.
We’ll take them in tipoff order.
BROOKLYN AT MIAMI: An opener of Miami -7.5 has been bet up to -8. That’s a mix of sharps taking early positions against the public…and the public. Most Wise Guys are still thinking dog even though Miami was so impressive against Charlotte. Sources tell us that sharps may be waiting until Game Two to express their Brooklyn sentiment financially because the Heat are so well rested while the Nets are coming off a Sunday game. Of course, Wise Guys thinking that way regarding the Clippers missed out on an easy win Monday Night. Generally speaking sharps will be looking for value on Brooklyn as a dog in this series. It’s expected that the public will bet Miami unless the Heat juggernaut slows down.
The opening total of 191.5 was bet up to 192. As we discussed last night, smart money tends to go Over early in a series, then Under once you get to game five and beyond. Both of last night’s totals ended up going Over by double digits even though they had been bet higher. This game saw just a small move though. The math guys are largely out of the mix at this stage. We’ll probably stop mentioning them! Classic sharp betting strategy nudged this one a half a point higher, which isn’t much in historical context.
PORTLAND AT SAN ANTIONIO: The Spurs opened at -6.5, and were bet up to -7. We understand that sharp sentiment is much more aimed at Portland than at Brooklyn in these openers. In this case, they’re waiting to see the best number they can get. Portland is the rested team here, and San Antonio only won one game by more than this spread in the whole Dallas series (San Antonio was 1-6 ATS vs. the Mavericks, only covering the finale). Sharps will take +7 before tipoff if that’s the best they’re going to see. They’re hoping to see +7.5. This may be a series that shows a tug-of-war between sharps (Portland) and squares (San Antonio) most of the way through. Sharps will only bet the Spurs in bounce back spots, or at cheap prices on the road if the Blazers start to fade based on what sources are telling us.
The total has been bet up from 204.5 to 206.5. That’s a two-point move…and represents the sharpest move of the day in market terms. It’s telling that Brooklyn/Miami only nudged forward a half a point while this saw a much more dramatic move. Both teams shot very well in the last round. Both teams were soft inside during extended stretches because they were trying to avoid foul trouble. Big move to the Over in this one.