Well, we haven’t had this happen yet in the playoffs…until tonight. A flipped favorite! Sharps have pushed a home underdog to a small home favorite, on a night of projected nailbiters across the NBA’s Tripleheader of Game Six action. Let’s run through early Wise Guy sentiment for Thursday basketball in tipoff order.
INDIANA AT ATLANTA: Indiana opened at -2, as oddsmakers anticipated interest in the bounce-back spot for the pre-series favorite in the must-win game. Sharps have apparently decided that Indiana has thrown in the towel on the season. Money came in hard on Atlanta at +2, +1, and even pick-em. We’re now seeing Atlanta -1 across the board as we go to press. Sharps are content with their position. There’s been no buy-back yet on the Pacers, and the public doesn’t seem interested in jumping aboard this wrecking train. Took awhile, but the market is finally closer to reflecting the reality of Indiana’s decline.
The opening total of 187.5 has dropped to 187 or 186.5. As we’ve talked about the past few days, old school sharps tend to bet Unders in the latter stages of a series. They were surprised by the sharp-shooting Wednesday Night in both San Antonio and Toronto. The Portland/Houston game did stay Under.
OKLAHOMA CITY AT MEMPHIS: Oklahoma City opened at -3, in another bounce-back spot for a pre-series favorite trying to stay alive on the road. Again, the sharps hit the Underdog rather than taking position against a possible public move to the favorite. Things haven’t been as dramatic here, as the line only dropped to OKC by 2.5. But, in context, that represents meaningful sentiment. Sharps didn’t wait for a better number. And, there sure weren’t any sharps who wanted a piece of OKC at the three. Sources tell us that sharps don’t think of OKC as a trustworthy playoff favorite.
The Over/Under has dropped 1.5 to 2 points depending on the store. An opener of 186.5 is down to 185 or 184.5. The math guys made it 185. Old school Under players are coming in as well. It’s easy to forget how low scoring this series would be if not for all the overtimes! The last three games have landed on 170, 160, and 180 at the end of regulation.
LA CLIPPERS AT GOLDEN STATE: In the nightcap, the lack of interesting on the underdog is yelling pretty loudly in the context of the day’s betting. The LA Clippers opened at -1, but are now -1.5 in most stores. So, we don’t have a flipped favorite even though the opener was within one point of pick-em. And, we don’t have expressed initial confidence in the dog like we saw with Memphis. Sources tell us sharp money would come in on Golden State at +2 if it gets that high. But, we can see generally that the Wise Guys aren’t as skeptical of the Clippers as they are OKC and Indiana. And, they aren’t ready to ask the Warriors to win this game straight up.
Little interest on the total of 210. That’s where the math guys had it. Some old school money has pushed the line down to 209.5 at a few stores. The public has been playing the Over, though, as have some of the “matchup” goes who see that four of the first five games have gone Over. Final scoreboard totals thus far have been 214, 236, 194, 215, and 216.
INDIANA AT ATLANTA: Indiana opened at -2, as oddsmakers anticipated interest in the bounce-back spot for the pre-series favorite in the must-win game. Sharps have apparently decided that Indiana has thrown in the towel on the season. Money came in hard on Atlanta at +2, +1, and even pick-em. We’re now seeing Atlanta -1 across the board as we go to press. Sharps are content with their position. There’s been no buy-back yet on the Pacers, and the public doesn’t seem interested in jumping aboard this wrecking train. Took awhile, but the market is finally closer to reflecting the reality of Indiana’s decline.
The opening total of 187.5 has dropped to 187 or 186.5. As we’ve talked about the past few days, old school sharps tend to bet Unders in the latter stages of a series. They were surprised by the sharp-shooting Wednesday Night in both San Antonio and Toronto. The Portland/Houston game did stay Under.
OKLAHOMA CITY AT MEMPHIS: Oklahoma City opened at -3, in another bounce-back spot for a pre-series favorite trying to stay alive on the road. Again, the sharps hit the Underdog rather than taking position against a possible public move to the favorite. Things haven’t been as dramatic here, as the line only dropped to OKC by 2.5. But, in context, that represents meaningful sentiment. Sharps didn’t wait for a better number. And, there sure weren’t any sharps who wanted a piece of OKC at the three. Sources tell us that sharps don’t think of OKC as a trustworthy playoff favorite.
The Over/Under has dropped 1.5 to 2 points depending on the store. An opener of 186.5 is down to 185 or 184.5. The math guys made it 185. Old school Under players are coming in as well. It’s easy to forget how low scoring this series would be if not for all the overtimes! The last three games have landed on 170, 160, and 180 at the end of regulation.
LA CLIPPERS AT GOLDEN STATE: In the nightcap, the lack of interesting on the underdog is yelling pretty loudly in the context of the day’s betting. The LA Clippers opened at -1, but are now -1.5 in most stores. So, we don’t have a flipped favorite even though the opener was within one point of pick-em. And, we don’t have expressed initial confidence in the dog like we saw with Memphis. Sources tell us sharp money would come in on Golden State at +2 if it gets that high. But, we can see generally that the Wise Guys aren’t as skeptical of the Clippers as they are OKC and Indiana. And, they aren’t ready to ask the Warriors to win this game straight up.
Little interest on the total of 210. That’s where the math guys had it. Some old school money has pushed the line down to 209.5 at a few stores. The public has been playing the Over, though, as have some of the “matchup” goes who see that four of the first five games have gone Over. Final scoreboard totals thus far have been 214, 236, 194, 215, and 216.