We once again have quadruple-header NBA Playoff action on Saturday and Sunday this weekend. Unless all matchup go the full seven games, these will be the last GRAND SLAM editions of postseason thrills this summer. Be sure YOU’RE ready to make the most of it!
Underdog bettors sure have been making the most of it. Dogs cashed three more tickets Friday Night as Chicago and Houston scored outright upsets to finally break through in their respective series against Washington and Portland. Toronto covered but didn’t win at Brooklyn. Oddsmakers continue to be out of synch with reality. Bettors focusing on underdogs are scoring big profits to this point.
Let’s see how sharps (the Wise Guys) have been betting the four Saturday matchups. We’ll take them in tip off order.
INDIANA AT ATLANTA: An opener of Indiana -2 has been bet up to -2.5. That’s not a surprise given that Indiana is the pre-series favorite facing a must-win situation. Though, the Pacers have been such a horrible team ATS (against the spread) in recent weeks that you wonder when the line will ever reflect their true level of play! That didn’t matter in Game Two of this series, when they had a rare good game in a bounce back spot. Sharps who like the Pacers to produce a replay of that laid the -2. Some sharps took early positions on the Pacers figuring the public will drive the line higher. Sources tell us that Atlanta money would start coming in at +3.
The Over/Under has been bet up from 185 to 187.5. That’s a big jump, particularly since the last game only landed on 183…and the prior game was 186 even when Indiana won a blowout. We’re hearing that sharps have soured on Indiana’s defense. Both pro-Indiana and anti-Indiana bettors see the game going Over. Pro-Indiana because of increased urgency. Anti-Indiana because they don’t believe in the defense any more.
SAN ANTONIO AT DALLAS: We have a half-point higher move here as well, as San Antonio -3 is now up to -3.5. We also have a pre-series favorite in a bounce-back spot. It’s also a cheap price that won’t scare away squares. And, in this case, the Spurs haven’t been slumping since late January! Easier to back the Spurs, which is why the number is a bit higher. Sources tell us Dallas money won’t come in unless +4 becomes available.
The total has fallen from 202.5 down to 201.5. We hear that sharps are expecting much better defense from the Spurs, who went from allowing only 85 points in Game One to allowing 113 in Game Two. The math guys made it 202. As we’ve been reporting through the week…oddsmakers have largely figured out the math guys’ numbers…meaning totals moves going forward may be due to other influences.
MIAMI AT CHARLOTTE: Looks like we have a tug-of-war here between Miami -4.5 and Charlotte +5. It’s generally sharps on the dog at +5, and squares on the favorite at -4.5. But, there are some sharps who expect Miami to go for the sweep to earn themselves some extra rest. It would be wrong to say it’s universally sharp vs. square causing that tug-of-war. Given how many sharps are cleaning up by just betting every dog, there’s certainly a strong Wise Guy position on the dog.
Not much interest on the total. An opener of 188 has largely stood pat. Some stores are experimenting with half point moves just to see if they can generate any action from squares.
OKLAHOMA CITY AT MEMPHIS: We wrap up the day with another pre-series favorite laying a small number on the road in a game they have to win. Like Indiana, OKC trails two-games-to-one and can’t afford to make it 3-1. An opener of -2.5 has been bet up to -3. It’s telling that the move wasn’t larger than a half a point. Sharps have been very impressed with Memphis the last two games, and surprised at the lack of offensive flow from OKC. Squares are betting OKC…sharp respect for Memphis has kept that line in check. Should the public drive the line higher through the day before this late tip, sharps would take Memphis at +3.5 and +4.
The total has been bet up from 189 to 190 because sharps expect better three-point shooting than the combined 9 of 44 that we saw in Game Three (5 of 28 from OKC, 4 of 16 from Memphis).
Underdog bettors sure have been making the most of it. Dogs cashed three more tickets Friday Night as Chicago and Houston scored outright upsets to finally break through in their respective series against Washington and Portland. Toronto covered but didn’t win at Brooklyn. Oddsmakers continue to be out of synch with reality. Bettors focusing on underdogs are scoring big profits to this point.
Let’s see how sharps (the Wise Guys) have been betting the four Saturday matchups. We’ll take them in tip off order.
INDIANA AT ATLANTA: An opener of Indiana -2 has been bet up to -2.5. That’s not a surprise given that Indiana is the pre-series favorite facing a must-win situation. Though, the Pacers have been such a horrible team ATS (against the spread) in recent weeks that you wonder when the line will ever reflect their true level of play! That didn’t matter in Game Two of this series, when they had a rare good game in a bounce back spot. Sharps who like the Pacers to produce a replay of that laid the -2. Some sharps took early positions on the Pacers figuring the public will drive the line higher. Sources tell us that Atlanta money would start coming in at +3.
The Over/Under has been bet up from 185 to 187.5. That’s a big jump, particularly since the last game only landed on 183…and the prior game was 186 even when Indiana won a blowout. We’re hearing that sharps have soured on Indiana’s defense. Both pro-Indiana and anti-Indiana bettors see the game going Over. Pro-Indiana because of increased urgency. Anti-Indiana because they don’t believe in the defense any more.
SAN ANTONIO AT DALLAS: We have a half-point higher move here as well, as San Antonio -3 is now up to -3.5. We also have a pre-series favorite in a bounce-back spot. It’s also a cheap price that won’t scare away squares. And, in this case, the Spurs haven’t been slumping since late January! Easier to back the Spurs, which is why the number is a bit higher. Sources tell us Dallas money won’t come in unless +4 becomes available.
The total has fallen from 202.5 down to 201.5. We hear that sharps are expecting much better defense from the Spurs, who went from allowing only 85 points in Game One to allowing 113 in Game Two. The math guys made it 202. As we’ve been reporting through the week…oddsmakers have largely figured out the math guys’ numbers…meaning totals moves going forward may be due to other influences.
MIAMI AT CHARLOTTE: Looks like we have a tug-of-war here between Miami -4.5 and Charlotte +5. It’s generally sharps on the dog at +5, and squares on the favorite at -4.5. But, there are some sharps who expect Miami to go for the sweep to earn themselves some extra rest. It would be wrong to say it’s universally sharp vs. square causing that tug-of-war. Given how many sharps are cleaning up by just betting every dog, there’s certainly a strong Wise Guy position on the dog.
Not much interest on the total. An opener of 188 has largely stood pat. Some stores are experimenting with half point moves just to see if they can generate any action from squares.
OKLAHOMA CITY AT MEMPHIS: We wrap up the day with another pre-series favorite laying a small number on the road in a game they have to win. Like Indiana, OKC trails two-games-to-one and can’t afford to make it 3-1. An opener of -2.5 has been bet up to -3. It’s telling that the move wasn’t larger than a half a point. Sharps have been very impressed with Memphis the last two games, and surprised at the lack of offensive flow from OKC. Squares are betting OKC…sharp respect for Memphis has kept that line in check. Should the public drive the line higher through the day before this late tip, sharps would take Memphis at +3.5 and +4.
The total has been bet up from 189 to 190 because sharps expect better three-point shooting than the combined 9 of 44 that we saw in Game Three (5 of 28 from OKC, 4 of 16 from Memphis).
