"We have a very interesting situation Tuesday Night in the NBA Playoffs. All three games on the schedule saw a home favorite LOSE the first game of the series…which puts them in a must-win bounce back situation in tonight’s rematches. Oddsmakers and sharps know that the public loves betting home favorites in this kind of situation…which means the lines are HIGHER in Game Two than in Game One, even though the favorites established clear weaknesses in Game One!
If you watched the late game Monday out in Los Angeles, you saw how powerful this situation can be for revenge-minded favorites…and how tricky it can be for handicappers who want to fade the public. The Los Angeles Clippers didn’t just win and cover against the Golden State Warriors. They absolutely obliterated them. Vegas could have doubled or tripled the line…or even quadrupled it…and the Clippers still would have covered by DOUBLE DIGITS in a 40-point win!
With that backdrop in mind, let’s see how the Wise Guys have been betting Tuesday’s action. All three games are from the Eastern Conference. We’ll take them in schedule order…
ATLANTA AT INDIANA: Indiana opened at -7, and has been bet up to -7.5 and -8. We’re hearing that sharps were taking position on the Pacers at the opener with plans of coming back over the top on Atlanta at the best later price. Indiana has been playing so badly the past several weeks that the Wise Guys won’t invest in them even in a favorable intangible situation like this. You can expect buy backs on the dog at +8 or higher. Squares bet the home favorite at -7 and -7.5, and may keep betting them at -8 given how well things worked out for the Clippers Monday Night. Many squares just look at the seeds and not recent form. Indiana is a #1 seed.
The Over/Under has either stood pat at 187, or dropped to 186.5. The math guys made it 187. Sharps who believe that Indiana will bring more intensity this time around but still don’t trust them as chalk have played some “Under” bets. That would be consistent with the general principle of a bounce-back effort, but with what is perhaps a safer approach.
BROOKLYN AT TORONTO: Toronto opened at -4, and has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. This is amazing because there was late steam on the Raptors this past Saturday that went up in smoke when the wrong team was favored. Now, the “wrong” team is favored by even more. Remember that Brooklyn opened as a series favorite even though they were a Game One underdog. Sharps again took position on the opener, and will either live with that position on the bounce back, or will buy back with Brooklyn at +5 or better. Sources tell us that sharps had really soured on Indiana overall in the first game…but aren’t soured on Toronto. The Raptors still have great chemistry. So, “coming over the top” on the dog will be more common on Atlanta (+) than on Brooklyn (+) in the hours leading up to tipoff.
The total has been bet up from 189 to 190. We’re hearing the math guys made it 190. The market had adjusted downward from a Game One closer of 191.
WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO: The opener here of Chicago -5.5 has actually stayed put. That was a jump from the Game One closer of Chicago -4.5. And, we have a case here where a lot of sharps now like Washington in the series because of how the frontline talent aligns in the matchup. Sharps would definitely jump in at +6, so sportsbooks are hesitant to go that high even if the public is coming in heavily on the bounce back favorite. Sharps either see the teams as even (which means Chicago -3 is the “right” home court line), or see Washington as slightly superior given their power game. That will keep this number from floating higher according to our sources.
The total is up a half a point from the opener of 181 to 181.5. Not a lot of interest from the math guys in Tuesday’s totals. Note that the first game in this series flew over by 16 points."
If you watched the late game Monday out in Los Angeles, you saw how powerful this situation can be for revenge-minded favorites…and how tricky it can be for handicappers who want to fade the public. The Los Angeles Clippers didn’t just win and cover against the Golden State Warriors. They absolutely obliterated them. Vegas could have doubled or tripled the line…or even quadrupled it…and the Clippers still would have covered by DOUBLE DIGITS in a 40-point win!
With that backdrop in mind, let’s see how the Wise Guys have been betting Tuesday’s action. All three games are from the Eastern Conference. We’ll take them in schedule order…
ATLANTA AT INDIANA: Indiana opened at -7, and has been bet up to -7.5 and -8. We’re hearing that sharps were taking position on the Pacers at the opener with plans of coming back over the top on Atlanta at the best later price. Indiana has been playing so badly the past several weeks that the Wise Guys won’t invest in them even in a favorable intangible situation like this. You can expect buy backs on the dog at +8 or higher. Squares bet the home favorite at -7 and -7.5, and may keep betting them at -8 given how well things worked out for the Clippers Monday Night. Many squares just look at the seeds and not recent form. Indiana is a #1 seed.
The Over/Under has either stood pat at 187, or dropped to 186.5. The math guys made it 187. Sharps who believe that Indiana will bring more intensity this time around but still don’t trust them as chalk have played some “Under” bets. That would be consistent with the general principle of a bounce-back effort, but with what is perhaps a safer approach.
BROOKLYN AT TORONTO: Toronto opened at -4, and has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. This is amazing because there was late steam on the Raptors this past Saturday that went up in smoke when the wrong team was favored. Now, the “wrong” team is favored by even more. Remember that Brooklyn opened as a series favorite even though they were a Game One underdog. Sharps again took position on the opener, and will either live with that position on the bounce back, or will buy back with Brooklyn at +5 or better. Sources tell us that sharps had really soured on Indiana overall in the first game…but aren’t soured on Toronto. The Raptors still have great chemistry. So, “coming over the top” on the dog will be more common on Atlanta (+) than on Brooklyn (+) in the hours leading up to tipoff.
The total has been bet up from 189 to 190. We’re hearing the math guys made it 190. The market had adjusted downward from a Game One closer of 191.
WASHINGTON AT CHICAGO: The opener here of Chicago -5.5 has actually stayed put. That was a jump from the Game One closer of Chicago -4.5. And, we have a case here where a lot of sharps now like Washington in the series because of how the frontline talent aligns in the matchup. Sharps would definitely jump in at +6, so sportsbooks are hesitant to go that high even if the public is coming in heavily on the bounce back favorite. Sharps either see the teams as even (which means Chicago -3 is the “right” home court line), or see Washington as slightly superior given their power game. That will keep this number from floating higher according to our sources.
The total is up a half a point from the opener of 181 to 181.5. Not a lot of interest from the math guys in Tuesday’s totals. Note that the first game in this series flew over by 16 points."
