SK's NBA Playoffs Thread

[suicidekings]

Playoff time. Finally games that mean something again... Taking a look at the series prices, there are a couple that I think could be worth playing. Mostly I think they're pretty fair lines. All spreads listed are derived from season stats & pythagorean expectation, with manual adjustments for a few teams.

IND vs ATL
Estimated Spreads: Hawks @ Pacers -7.5, Pacers pk @ Hawks
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Indiana -458
My No-Vig Series line: Indiana -330
Prediction: Pacers in 5

CHI vs WAS
Estimated Spreads: Wizards @ Bulls -4.5, Bulls @ Wizards -3
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Chicago -172
My No-Vig Series line: Chicago -156
Prediction: Wizards in 7

MIA vs CHA
Estimated Spreads: Bobcats @ Heat -9, Heat -2 @ Bobcats
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Miami -1429
My No-Vig Series line: Miami -900
Prediction: Heat in 4

TOR vs BKN
Estimated Spreads: Nets @ Raptors -5, Raptors @ Nets -2
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Brooklyn -143
My No-Vig Series line: Toronto -203
Prediction: Raptors in 7

SAS vs DAL
Estimated Spreads: Mavs @ Spurs -9, Spurs -1.5 @ Mavs
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Spurs -691
My No-Vig Series line: Spurs -824
Prediction: Spurs in 5

OKC vs MEM
Estimated Spreads: Grizz @ Thunder -8, Thunder -1 @ Grizz
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Thunder -403
My No-Vig Series line: Thunder -549
Prediction: Thunder in 5

LAC vs GSW
Estimated Spreads: Warriors @ Clippers -5, Clippers @ Warriors -2.5
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Clippers -341
My No-Vig Series line: Clippers -189
Prediction: Clippers in 6

HOU vs POR
Estimated Spreads: Blazers @ Rockets -5, Rockets @ Blazers -2
Pinny No-Vig Series line: Rockets -184
My No-Vig Series line: Rockets -189
Prediction: Houston in 6
________________________________________ _

I'm pretty pleased with how these came out for the most part. I think the Clippers & Pacers are overpriced, and the Warriors are a pretty decent value play. Atlanta less so.

I also think Toronto is better than the lines indicate and should play Brooklyn hard. The Nets have efficiency issues anad despite the solid roster, I think it's entirely possible that the Raptors can outwork them and push the series to 6-7 at least, if not winning it.

[suicidekings]

Odds to win the NBA Championship

Current Prices at Pinny suggest:

Heat: 26.5%
Spurs: 22.7%
Thunder: 16.7%
Pacers: 11.5%
Clippers: 8.9%

These are the only teams that really have a shot, IMO. The Thunder at +380 seem like a pretty good buy to me, as well as +208 to win th West. I think they'll ultimately get the better of the Spurs. San Antonio likely draws the Rockets after the Mavs and that's a lot of games in a row where teams will press tempo and can be relied upon to make big shots. Even when they make it through those series, they're going to be tired. The Thunder will potentially get challenged by the Clippers if LA remembers that they have the tools on the floor to be a really good defensive team. They forget far too often, but Doc Rivers is the second best coach in the West after Pop, so if they can get their heads right, LAC +1000 could be a good price (+500 to win the West). I suspect the winner of LAC/OKC will win the WCF.

I think the Pacers are super overrated, but they'll still likely make it to the ECF as their draw is pretty favourable.

[demens]

why do you think the Nets are favored in the 1st place? I know the roster may appeal to people looking at names but i really dont think vegas had to give them favorable odds in order to draw bets. this is 3rd seed vs 6th seed afterall, when was the last time a 6th seed was favorite over a 3rd? Although Nets have a slightly better record since the calendar year Raps still had a better season.

Personally think it will be a good series, just dont get why vegas made them favorites. i guess that would mean vegas is on the nets.

[suicidekings]

why do you think the Nets are favored in the 1st place? I know the roster may appeal to people looking at names but i really dont think vegas had to give them favorable odds in order to draw bets. this is 3rd seed vs 6th seed afterall, when was the last time a 6th seed was favorite over a 3rd? Although Nets have a slightly better record since the calendar year Raps still had a better season.

Personally think it will be a good series, just dont get why vegas made them favorites. i guess that would mean vegas is on the nets.

It should be very entertaining. The price is probably a function of the bigger betting/fan base for the Nets and exposure from futures tickets. They probably know that they can charge a premium and people will still buy into the all star roster coming through. Doesn't sit right with me either way though.. Seems like a series to wait and see how it goes. The battle in the paint is going to be the key factor I think, and if the Nets can get Valenciunas and Johnson into foul trouble, I can see them winning.

[demens]

not sure i agree with that. people saw what this all-star roster was all year and they sucked bad. If they WANTED to get bets on BK and thought fans would throw money at the paper roster cause of all-star names they could have made it more appealing by making BK +xxx which would have made total sense in 3vs6 matchup.

Also, not sure the paint will be as much a factor as you think. Unless the Raps dominate it. BKs main weapon is small ball, yes they can use the match-up advantages to open the lane and score paint points but they will depend on 3s. Jonas will be an X factor for Raps, if he can dominate, i think Raps can win, but i would not count on him.

[suicidekings]

1) Raptors / Nets 1Q Under 49 (-110) x0.5
2) Raptors / Nets 1H Under 97 (-110) x0.5

[suicidekings]

Jonas will be an X factor for Raps, if he can dominate, i think Raps can win, but i would not count on him.

I know it's early, but he's dominating. Here's where the Nets need to step up in the paint. Jonas is quite capable of bringing in 15-20 rebounds a game if the Nets aren't going to challenge him inside. Should have bet the Over props on him, I guess...

[Tommy Karate]

not sure i agree with that. people saw what this all-star roster was all year and they sucked bad. If they WANTED to get bets on BK and thought fans would throw money at the paper roster cause of all-star names they could have made it more appealing by making BK +xxx which would have made total sense in 3vs6 matchup.

Also, not sure the paint will be as much a factor as you think. Unless the Raps dominate it. BKs main weapon is small ball, yes they can use the match-up advantages to open the lane and score paint points but they will depend on 3s. Jonas will be an X factor for Raps, if he can dominate, i think Raps can win, but i would not count on him.

i dont even view this team as having a bunch of *all stars*
lopez isnt here, williams is trending downward and you have a bunch of unselfish former all stars trying to win another ring...
i dont know how joe johnson made the all star team this season...


this series is going 7...

[suicidekings]

3) Raptors / Nets 2H Over 95.5 (-104) x1

[JR007]

thanks for the insight

[suicidekings]

4) LIVE (73-73, 6:33 4Q): Raptors ML (-116) x1

[demens]

Didnt like how this game was called. Jonas was a factor, Nets will need to be careful with him. They took out Plumlee with some silly foul calls. Ross too.

[suicidekings]

5) LIVE (End 1Q, 29-24 Clippers): Warriors / Clippers Over 210 (-108) x1

[suicidekings]

Didnt like how this game was called. Jonas was a factor, Nets will need to be careful with him. They took out Plumlee with some silly foul calls. Ross too.

I think the shot clock issue affected both teams (and even the refs) a fair bit, disrupting their rhythm. My gut reaction is to take the Over in Game 2 as there's a lot of players that will be looking to make up for bad offensive days.

[suicidekings]

6) Hawks +8 (-111) x1
7) Hawks / Pacers Over 185 (-110) x1

[xetsr]

20 seconds left. Should have been a foul on GSW but nope, Chris Paul turnover :\ HUGE.

[xetsr]

20 seconds left. Should have been a foul on GSW but nope, Chris Paul turnover :\ HUGE. Was hoping for overtime for the over to hit.

[suicidekings]

The Over 210 did hit... The game went to 214, however not by as much as I expected. I almost bought back on Under 216.5 with 5 minutes left when the tempo had slowed down.

[KiDBaZkiT]

I am on the Hawks as well tonight. Hopefully guys like Milsap are just a pain in the ass and wear Indy out. Indy don't seem to even care.

[suicidekings]

I am on the Hawks as well tonight. Hopefully guys like Milsap are just a pain in the ass and wear Indy out. Indy don't seem to even care.

Millsap, Carroll and Teague. All guys that can outwork the Pacers all game. That said, I was hoping Atlanta can hold on in the first half and then take the Pacers 2H. Even with struggles in down the stretch, they're still the best 3Q/2H team in the league.

[suicidekings]

8) LIVE (29-16 Thunder, End of 1Q): Under 185.5 (+116) x1

[suicidekings]

9) LIVE (69-65 Thunder, End of 3Q): Grizzlies ML (+482) x0.25

[suicidekings]

1) Raptors / Nets 1Q Under 49 (-110) x0.5
2) Raptors / Nets 1H Under 97 (-110) x0.5
3) Raptors / Nets 2H Over 95.5 (-104) x1
4) LIVE (73-73, 6:33 4Q): Raptors ML (-116) x1
5) LIVE (End 1Q, 29-24 Clippers): Warriors / Clippers Over 210 (-108) x1
6) Hawks +8 (-111) x1
7) Hawks / Pacers Over 185 (-110) x1
8) LIVE (29-16 Thunder, End of 1Q): Under 185.5 (+116) x1
9) LIVE (69-65 Thunder, End of 3Q): Grizzlies ML (+482) x0.25

4-5 (-0.5u)

[suicidekings]

10) Spurs / Mavs Over 203 (-110) x1

[suicidekings]

11) LIVE (21-21, 2Q 9:11): Mavs +8 (-101) x1

[suicidekings]

12) LIVE (1Q 7:13, 12-7 BOBCATS): HEAT -8 (+106) x1

[KiDBaZkiT]

I took Heat first half, small tho. Hoping if they don't cover I get them 2nd half at a good #

[suicidekings]

13) Joakim Noah Over 13.5 points (-103) x1
14) John Wall Over 18.5 points (+105) x1

[suicidekings]

I took Heat first half, small tho. Hoping if they don't cover I get them 2nd half at a good #

The cheapest I saw them in live lines was Heat -4, even when down 6, part way through the 2Q. The books were confident in covering the original line the whole time. Typical Heat playoff game, haha.

[suicidekings]

15) Wizards / Bulls 2H Over 88.5 (-110) x1

[JBC33]

Why over 2H?

[suicidekings]

The offense is dominating the defense in the paint at both ends of the floor, and the Bulls in particular are playing with a ton of energy. Seems like neither team is going to play their best defense.

[suicidekings]

10) Spurs / Mavs Over 203 (-110) x1
11) LIVE (21-21, 2Q 9:11): Mavs +8 (-101) x1
12) LIVE (1Q 7:13, 12-7 BOBCATS): HEAT -8 (+106) x1
13) Joakim Noah Over 13.5 points (-103) x1
14) John Wall Over 18.5 points (+105) x1
15) Wizards / Bulls 2H Over 88.5 (-110) x1

3-3 (-0.07u)

Playoffs: 7-8 (-0.57u)

[suicidekings]

16) LIVE (6:11 1Q, 14-8 Blazers): Rockets -2 (-112) x2

[KRIT]

16) LIVE (6:11 1Q, 14-8 Blazers): Rockets -2 (-112) x2

Nice. Just hit Rockets -1.5 live. Game should be a live bettors wet dream. Two streaky teams, should be a game of runs.

gl on the playoffs, I remember your threads from a couple years ago when I used to lurk.