Toronto Raptors top NBA's Over chart
Toronto Raptors top NBA's Over chart
The Toronto Raptors have been cashing left and right at the window this season...as long as you have been playing their games to shoot over the posted totals. A dismal 23-41 straight up and just as bad with a 23-39-2 ATS mark, Chris Bosh and the Dinos are a profitable 38-26 to the Over, and they aren't the only team with a losing overall record to make a profit for bettors playing the Over this season.
It’s a very sharp thing to bet on the Toronto Raptors.
The betting odds have been very kind to the Raptors this year. Heck no, not the pointspread, where the Dinos are one of the worst investments in the league at 23-39-2 ATS. We’re talking totals here. The over is 38-26 in Toronto games, driven by the No. 22-ranked defense in the NBA. Trading Jermaine O’Neal for Shawn Marion hasn’t helped in that department either: Toronto is 2-7 SU and ATS since the swap with the over at 7-2.
The Raptors aren’t the only losing team out there racking up big numbers for the over:
All four of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency – yes, even the Scott Skiles-led Bucks, who check in at No. 16 with 104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions (Toronto sits at 107.3). All four are in the top half of the fastest teams according to pace. But where’s that missing third ingredient for a strong “over” situation: offense? The entire foursome happens to be below average in terms of scoring efficiency. Which makes sense; they are losing teams, after all. And two criteria out of three ain’t bad.
So, if lousy teams are pounding the over, are the winners moving in the opposite direction? Pretty much, especially in the Eastern Conference, where the top two teams in each division are all going under:
NBA Atlantic
Boston 49-15 SU, Under 34-29-1
Philadelphia 30-31 SU, Under 32-24-4
NBA Central
Cleveland 49-13 SU, Under 35-27
Detroit 31-30 SU, Under 35-25-1
NBA Southeast
Orlando 46-16 SU, Under 32-30
Atlanta 35-28 SU, Under 32-29-2
The East has a reputation of being the stronger (and more boring) conference, and sure enough, the top three teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency are Cleveland, Boston and Orlando. These are also three major money teams at a combined 114-73-1 ATS, although the Celtics are on a 1-5 ATS skid while they wait for the return of Kevin Garnett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. The over has grabbed the cash in three of Boston’s last four games.
Detroit is something of an anomaly on this list of under teams. The familiar Pistons D is not in evidence this year, as the team sits at No. 14 on the efficiency charts at 104.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. Detroit does have the other two required attributes, though: the slowest pace in the league and a disappointing No. 22-ranked offense. It’s like the Pistons are the mirror image of the Raptors. And taking Allen Iverson out of the equation hasn’t stopped the under from going 4-2, although it has given Detroit a major boost at the pay window at 5-1 ATS.
Then you have the curious case of the Phoenix Suns: 34-29 SU and 24-36-2 ATS, with the over hitting paydirt at 36-26. This is a different team every time you blink your eyes, with new coaches, new players, and new injuries. The Suns are now 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS since Alvin Gentry took over as head coach, with the over at 8-4 as Gentry pushes the pace back up toward Mike D’Anonti’s previous specifications. But that’s a less useful 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS and 6-4 for the over without Amare Stoudemire (detached retina). His value to the Suns is quite obvious after Phoenix dropped all four games of its most recent road trip at 1-3 ATS, all as the underdog.
Starbury Update: Boston’s nightmare scenario has arrived. Rajon Rondo missed Sunday’s game against Orlando with a sprained right ankle. Stephon Marbury got the start instead at point guard and dished out zero assists in 21 minutes. Not that he was being selfish – Marbury also shot just 2-of-5 as Boston (-2.5) lost 86-79 at the Garden. Rondo’s status for this week is uncertain, and Glen Davis also sprained his right ankle Sunday. The vultures are circling overhead.
The Toronto Raptors have been cashing left and right at the window this season...as long as you have been playing their games to shoot over the posted totals. A dismal 23-41 straight up and just as bad with a 23-39-2 ATS mark, Chris Bosh and the Dinos are a profitable 38-26 to the Over, and they aren't the only team with a losing overall record to make a profit for bettors playing the Over this season.
It’s a very sharp thing to bet on the Toronto Raptors.
The betting odds have been very kind to the Raptors this year. Heck no, not the pointspread, where the Dinos are one of the worst investments in the league at 23-39-2 ATS. We’re talking totals here. The over is 38-26 in Toronto games, driven by the No. 22-ranked defense in the NBA. Trading Jermaine O’Neal for Shawn Marion hasn’t helped in that department either: Toronto is 2-7 SU and ATS since the swap with the over at 7-2.
The Raptors aren’t the only losing team out there racking up big numbers for the over:
- Indiana 28-37 SU, Over 37-26-2
- L.A. Clippers 15-48 SU, Over 36-25-2
- Milwaukee 30-36 SU, Over 37-29
- Chicago 29-34 SU, Over 35-27-1
All four of these teams are in the bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency – yes, even the Scott Skiles-led Bucks, who check in at No. 16 with 104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions (Toronto sits at 107.3). All four are in the top half of the fastest teams according to pace. But where’s that missing third ingredient for a strong “over” situation: offense? The entire foursome happens to be below average in terms of scoring efficiency. Which makes sense; they are losing teams, after all. And two criteria out of three ain’t bad.
So, if lousy teams are pounding the over, are the winners moving in the opposite direction? Pretty much, especially in the Eastern Conference, where the top two teams in each division are all going under:
NBA Atlantic
Boston 49-15 SU, Under 34-29-1
Philadelphia 30-31 SU, Under 32-24-4
NBA Central
Cleveland 49-13 SU, Under 35-27
Detroit 31-30 SU, Under 35-25-1
NBA Southeast
Orlando 46-16 SU, Under 32-30
Atlanta 35-28 SU, Under 32-29-2
The East has a reputation of being the stronger (and more boring) conference, and sure enough, the top three teams in the NBA in defensive efficiency are Cleveland, Boston and Orlando. These are also three major money teams at a combined 114-73-1 ATS, although the Celtics are on a 1-5 ATS skid while they wait for the return of Kevin Garnett, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. The over has grabbed the cash in three of Boston’s last four games.
Detroit is something of an anomaly on this list of under teams. The familiar Pistons D is not in evidence this year, as the team sits at No. 14 on the efficiency charts at 104.5 points allowed per 100 possessions. Detroit does have the other two required attributes, though: the slowest pace in the league and a disappointing No. 22-ranked offense. It’s like the Pistons are the mirror image of the Raptors. And taking Allen Iverson out of the equation hasn’t stopped the under from going 4-2, although it has given Detroit a major boost at the pay window at 5-1 ATS.
Then you have the curious case of the Phoenix Suns: 34-29 SU and 24-36-2 ATS, with the over hitting paydirt at 36-26. This is a different team every time you blink your eyes, with new coaches, new players, and new injuries. The Suns are now 6-6 SU and 7-5 ATS since Alvin Gentry took over as head coach, with the over at 8-4 as Gentry pushes the pace back up toward Mike D’Anonti’s previous specifications. But that’s a less useful 4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS and 6-4 for the over without Amare Stoudemire (detached retina). His value to the Suns is quite obvious after Phoenix dropped all four games of its most recent road trip at 1-3 ATS, all as the underdog.
Starbury Update: Boston’s nightmare scenario has arrived. Rajon Rondo missed Sunday’s game against Orlando with a sprained right ankle. Stephon Marbury got the start instead at point guard and dished out zero assists in 21 minutes. Not that he was being selfish – Marbury also shot just 2-of-5 as Boston (-2.5) lost 86-79 at the Garden. Rondo’s status for this week is uncertain, and Glen Davis also sprained his right ankle Sunday. The vultures are circling overhead.
