Leans for Tuesday 3/3/09

[nonsense48]

Good nite everyone. Good luck and blessed be. Type to you later.

[pho3nix32]

hi CK, any thoughts from the Missus regarding the bobs?

[mb19]

brandon, you're doing it the right way instead of just blindly tailing. you do some work on your own then compare with others. i'm just curious as to how many blind tailers/watchers there are that check this thread. i didn't think you were a blind tailer and i'm glad for you. good job.

I think there is a lot and some do a bet beyond their means...lose...and become a troll in this thread.

[BrandonLaz]

Trolls come with the territory for some reason humans like to watch other humans fail. It is sadly in our nature some suppress it more than others. Most of the trolls though you are right probably lost a play or two on the forum here and got pissed and blamed everyone but themselves. If you make your own informed decision there is nobody to blame but yourself. Trust me I learned to compare picks and always get all the input I can on plays for a reason. Believe it or not when I was in college sports betting and poker where my job. I made picks every night and while the games where playing I played poker. It paid for school, but it was stressful I remember the first big loss. I lost 5k at the poker table and then another 5k on my plays. To a lot of you that isn't much, but for a college kid that was a lot of money though. Anyway it was horrible I could never bring myself to play big again. I have sat down with 1k in chips in a poker game only a few time since then. Sports wagering never anything huge max play on a night 1k. I have toned it down a lot and do it as an extra income on top of a real income now. Anyway that is my story and that is the reason I chose my plays based on multiple opinions.

[danrman]

i totally hear ya brandonlaz.. theres no need to gamble large sums cause if your good you will beat them longterm w/ alot less pressure.. anyway betting large sums begats betting larger sums which begats a serious problem... here's an alert for everyone... chauncy billups is playing his former team tomorrow and the nuggets are coming off a loss

[barackobama]

For today...

CHI+2.5@CHA Line: 192.5
NJN+3.5@MIL Line: 205.5
TOR+8.5@HOU Line: 197.5
IND@SAC+2 Line: 215.5
MEM+15.5@LAL Line: 208

My Picks: CHA, HOU, IND, LAL, LAL OVER

CHA. I'm tailing phx on this one...

HOU. Because Marion might not play, and Houston is a great home team.

IND. Sacramento has not had much success with Eastern Conference teams, and I don't think they will this time against IND, a team that has been hot as of late.

LAL. The Lakers would probably play with no mercy against one of the worst teams in the NBA. They have lost 2 straight, and I don't think this will continue. Despite their many failures in covering, I think they would this time.

LAL MEM OVER. With the line at 208, I'd go with the OVER since LAL is a very high scoring team, and MEM just doesn't have enough defense.

[LVD09]

MIL -3.5 Charlie V, Richard J and Ramon S still stepping up.

SAC +3 WE THE KINGS!

CHA -2.5 because...

• Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
• Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
• Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Bobcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
• Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Bobcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
• Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
• Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
• Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
• Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Bobcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Bobcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
• Bobcats are HOT, SON!

2-3

[joanapoker]

MEM/LAL OVER 208 (so many good trends for the OVER.......for the Lakers and I think the Griz's will help )
------------------------------------------------------xx----------------------------
Yesterday 1-0 (ATL/WAS UNDER 198.5 win)

[Jimbo42]

Good morning,
As I stated last night Toronto falls into a system that I play as well as the "you know what" system. Its actually a play AGAINST Houston, so I was playing Toronto anyway. So go ahead, be confident and play the Raptors.
Toronto +11 (3pt. buy)
Toronto +8
Toronto M/L - for a few coins.
Of course, also playing Indiana for the usual small on the first game.
GL to everyone!

[Jimbo42]

CK,
Hey that's a pretty sharp idea on the teaser when you have two of the "you know what" plays! I like it!
Also, what about one of our favorite angles? The "We just beat the Celtics" angle? I'm taking a strong look at Denver! I know Melo is out, but Denver plays all right without him. They have before! Chauncey's return! as well as the fact that the Pistons have been celebrating and patting themselves on the back after the win over the champs. They wish they were still playing that game! Will watch for the line so haven't locked it in yet.
GL to everyone!

[Jimbo42]

Hell, sometimes I play on a team JUST BECAUSE their star is out!

GL to everyone!

[icsky3]

Yes, i do like the Bobcats in their match up tonight, but is the Over a safer play?? The trends look pretty convincing.

[dennisback]

Leans:
Houston -7.5
Houston 1Q
Charlotte ML

[Dexter]

3/3 - Tue

the bobcats will be playing their first home game off of a long west coast trip - awaiting are the new look bulls who looked primed for a playoff push. the bulls have won 3 of their last 6 su in charl. projected line of +3.

-bulls

[pho3nix32]

3/3 - Tue

the bobcats will be playing their first home game off of a long west coast trip - awaiting are the new look bulls who looked primed for a playoff push. the bulls have won 3 of their last 6 su in charl. projected line of +3.

-bulls

although on opposite sides, its still good to see you today dex

[repski]

Iowa +1.5 or ML
- IOWA is a perfect 6-0 ATS (3-0 ATS TY) in home games revenging a same season loss the last 3 seasons
- Iowa returns home off a two-game road trip that saw them lose to Michigan State 62 to 54 but cover as a 15 point road dog and at Northwestern over the weekend 55 to 49 as a 6.5 point road dog, they covered in that one as well. In fact the Hawkeyes have covered their last four in a row and eight of their last eleven times to post.
-Iowa is 12-3 SU and 7-3 ATS at home this season averaging 63.5 points per game and only allowing 53.8 points per game
- OSU is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS their last five games overall and they are 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS on the road
-one more stat...CBB teams after winning their last three games ATS and are now a conference underdog 70-46-6 ATS and if they are installed as a home underdog the record is 25-7-2 ATS.

[repski]

Horizon League Tourney: starts tonight

one stat to note....favorites in this event that defeated their opponent in the most recent meeting are 21-3-1 ATS!

[Dexter]

sorry for my tirade last night folks - i set myself up for those posts from the trolls.

as most of you know i collected a nice amount week ending 2/22. since then all of my larger plays have lost, and i have basically given all those profits back and then some. im now officially down a small amount for the nba season. please do not think my anger has anything to do with financial issues. while these larger plays have lost, im not chasing - and only doing 2x on the plays. im a big boy and i dont bet over my head. the manner in which i have lost many of these games is something i have not seen in years. but it is what it is, and i'll continue to post my 1-2 plays per day and try to build it back. good luck.

dexter-

[repski]

sorry for my tirade last night folks - i set myself up for those posts from the trolls.

as most of you know i collected a nice amount week ending 2/22. since then all of my larger plays have lost, and i have basically given all those profits back and then some. im now officially down a small amount for the nba season. please do not think my anger has anything to do with financial issues. while these larger plays have lost, im not chasing - and only doing 2x on the plays. im a big boy and i dont bet over my head. the manner in which i have lost many of these games is something i have not seen in years. but it is what it is, and i'll continue to post my 1-2 plays per day and try to build it back. good luck.

dexter-

thank Dexter...your posts are always very much appreciated..and I for one thank you...

[Hue]

Here's my picks..
Chi +3 (agree with Dex)
Tor +8 (High probability Houston will Sell) Watch Scola do offensive fouls when they are leading.. classic move
Sac +2.5
Mem +15 (lakers will relax when they have the lead)

[JohnMorr08]

9 for the Big East?

Early February there was a lot of chatter about how good the Big East was and that they'd have 9 teams in the tournament. Well, I think that Georgetown and Notre Dame made some of those people sound 'not so smart'. The big east is still very good and looks to have 7 definite teams in with Providence and Cincinatti with a fighting chance.

The Bearcats are sitting in 9th place (18-11) after a 1-3 slide where they lost to PITT, LOUIV & Cuse. The one thing I can say about Cincy is that they have beaten who they were 'supposed to beat'. And tonight they are supposed to beat South Florida. They will not overlook the Bulls -

Bearcats -3.5

[pho3nix32]

goodluck dex! let's all help each other beat the books!

[The General]

Trolls come with the territory for some reason humans like to watch other humans fail. It is sadly in our nature some suppress it more than others. Most of the trolls though you are right probably lost a play or two on the forum here and got pissed and blamed everyone but themselves. If you make your own informed decision there is nobody to blame but yourself. Trust me I learned to compare picks and always get all the input I can on plays for a reason. Believe it or not when I was in college sports betting and poker where my job. I made picks every night and while the games where playing I played poker. It paid for school, but it was stressful I remember the first big loss. I lost 5k at the poker table and then another 5k on my plays. To a lot of you that isn't much, but for a college kid that was a lot of money though. Anyway it was horrible I could never bring myself to play big again. I have sat down with 1k in chips in a poker game only a few time since then. Sports wagering never anything huge max play on a night 1k. I have toned it down a lot and do it as an extra income on top of a real income now. Anyway that is my story and that is the reason I chose my plays based on multiple opinions.

Thanks for sharing the story, Brandon.

Horizon League Tourney: starts tonight

one stat to note....favorites in this event that defeated their opponent in the most recent meeting are 21-3-1 ATS!

Interesting stat. Thanks.

Good luck today, everyone.

[Bezerk15]

repski - I've been away for a week on full out research for the conference tourneys - DEAD ON analysis with the Horizon league - Cleveland St., Wright St., Youngstown St., and Milwaukee - put a play on each of them -17, -10, -2.5, and -7.5 = 3-1 night (worst case scenario), Each of these four are on their home court tonight and beat their opponent twice this season...I do forsee Cleveland St. getting out early as they did on both meetings with Detroit this season and putting the breaks on in the 2H (simple conservation theory of tournament play W is a W.) This is the one where I need to do more work as I'm awaiting the 1H line in accordance with the above analysis.
It's tourney time so anything can happen...but the historic ATS are a good indicator.

BOL tonight!

[Dexter]

off okl st due to line movement...

[cocknocker]

hi CK, any thoughts from the Missus regarding the bobs?

She's going with the Bulls moneyline tonight, Pho3nix

[repski]

Denver/Detroit UNDER
- Denver has stayed under the total in seven of 10 overall, five of seven on the road
- Pistons have gone under 5-2 overall, 8-3-1 versus the Western Conference and 23-8-1 at home against a team with a winning road mark
-the under has been the play in 10 of the last 14 clashes in this series.

[JGILL50]

She's going with the Bulls moneyline tonight, Pho3nix

all ready on it style's input makes me feel better

[repski]

FSU/DUKE UNDER
-FSU is under 6 of the last 8 overall, 4-1 under on the road, 4-1 under as a dog, 6-2 under in ACC games.
-Duke is under 18-7 at home, 22-9 under as a favorite, 14-4 under in ACC action and 14-2 under coming off a spread-cover.
- And in this series, the under is 10-1 in the last 11 overall.

[Dexter]

3/4-

the celtcis will be seeing red after their su loss to the pistons on sunday. they travel to nj to face a nets team that they own (won the last 5 su and ats by 10ppg). projected line of -6.5

celtics (big)
______________
god i wish i was up money for this game. the rockets will be on a btb and playing their 4th game in 5 nights vs a rested red hot jazz team. on top of that, the jazz have double revenge working in their favor, as they lost both games at houston earlier in the year. projected line of -6.5

jazz (big)
_____________

[repski]

going to add one college play as well to my card tonight. okl st has won the last 5 home games vs kstate by an avg margin of 11ppg, and are looking to avenge a beating in kansas last year. okl st has been red hot of late winning and covering 5 in a row. early sharp money points to okl st.

-okl st

nice lean...

[repski]

Dexter...I like em both...but this one I can sink my teeth into...


jazz (big)

[repski]

[repski]

here's the URL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REtmym2e3PI&eurl=http://www.ibankcoin.com/flyblog/index.php/2009/03/02/all-hope-is-lost/

[OperatorX]

This Toronto game is definitely scary. What it comes down to is whether Bargnani can defend Yao Ming at all in the low post. We all saw what happened to Toronto when Shaq worked his post game. Andrea however has had very good success at defending Yao Ming in previous meetings and I think the raps should be able to hang with them. I think the Raptors will lose by 6 in the end, but will keep it close.. but then again its the Raptors.