Someone please explain why this gambling logic doesn't work

[dunderball]

From a friend in google chat:

im thinking of doing this bet where i do pacers ML and hawks to cover at the same time
if i put 50 on pacers ml and 50 on hawks to cover
i can only lose 25 max if pacers blow hawks out
if hawks win SU i lose 3 dollars
but if pacers win but dont cover, i win 75
doesnt that sound pretty good!

I'm guessing his logic is to limit losses by playing both sides but I forget why it's normally not a good idea.

[RollinDo]

I was thinking the exact same thing with this game. I would make the play to try to hit both ends, which I think it might. The biggest worry is that Indy may not win SU, which would carry the bigger loss than the Hawks not covering.
If I were betting nba today (and I still might), this would be my POD.

$10 on Indy ML to win $6

$7.50 on Hawks (+5) to win $7

[keel44]

You got to think long term. You basically are getting a 3-1 payout. You have a very low margin for error. Ask yourself, does the payout justify what needs to happen? If you don't take advantage of line movement, this is not a sound strategy long term. Learn if the line will move and by how much to fully gain an edge.

Last night Miami opened up -350 against New Orleans (+7.5). This game closed at Miami -450 against New Orleans (+9.5)

You could start with Miami ml $35 to win $10. Then finish with NO (+9.5) $38.50 to win $35

Miami wins but does not cover: $45 profit
Miami loses: $0 profit
Miami wins and covers: -$28.5

$28.5 is at risk to profit $45 basically a +158 wager

just one way to look at it, there are other ways

[dontknowtohedge]

I bet only one side and try to catch a middle at HT. That way you can ensure you won't take any size loss no matter what happens. This is assuming you can get a "good" number to middle. Often the HT line will be (too) relative to the game line.

[44 Mag]

I bet only one side and try to catch a middle at HT. That way you can ensure you won't take any size loss no matter what happens. This is assuming you can get a "good" number to middle. Often the HT line will be (too) relative to the game line.

The best way to middle a game is in the NFL with a close game, and you have to get the tease right: over/under. Most books know what you are doing and don't like it, the locals anyway. BOL...

[Seto]

You got to think long term. You basically are getting a 3-1 payout. You have a very low margin for error. Ask yourself, does the payout justify what needs to happen? If you don't take advantage of line movement, this is not a sound strategy long term. Learn if the line will move and by how much to fully gain an edge.

Last night Miami opened up -350 against New Orleans (+7.5). This game closed at Miami -450 against New Orleans (+9.5)

You could start with Miami ml $35 to win $10. Then finish with NO (+9.5) $38.50 to win $35

Miami wins but does not cover: $45 profit
Miami loses: $0 profit
Miami wins and covers: -$28.5

$28.5 is at risk to profit $45 basically a +158 wager

just one way to look at it, there are other ways

Best post in here.

You're basically betting on Pacers to win by 1-4 at slightly modified odds. Ask yourself if you would take the bet if your bookie offered you Pacers by 1-4 at those odds.

[Bluehorseshoe]

I bet only one side and try to catch a middle at HT. That way you can ensure you won't take any size loss no matter what happens. This is assuming you can get a "good" number to middle. Often the HT line will be (too) relative to the game line.

But you're sometimes deleting a winner by doing this.