YTC 2014 picks

[YTC]

Hi all,

I would like to display my picks for the 2014 calendar year for personal reference with commentary. The commentary is unique in explaining WHY I made certain picks. I will be focusing on the NBA and MLB with occasional picks on the NFL and NHL for kicks.

I make picks as a hobby and not for financial sustainability. I use Pinny exclusively now for a plethora of reasons. Best of luck to all!

-YTC

[YTC]

Thoughts on NBA (Golden State):
On 12/31/13, GS@ORL: final score 94-81.
Nothing special about the final score. What is special can be seen if you watched the game. The 5 GS starters averaged 26.4 minutes of game time with each individual posting double digit +/- (3 of the starters with +20 or more!). The team used the bench most of the game for filler. GS is resting their starters for a reason: MIA (1/2/14) followed by ATL (1/3/14). This means 3 road games in 4 days.

This team has decent bigs (Bogut and Lee) along with one of the leagues most deadly pair of sharpshooters (Curry and Thompson). Finally, one of the best utility men in Iguadola who does a bit of everything (post-up, jumpshot, drive-in, rebound, blablabla). Do not doubt GS's ability when healthy, they are one of my favorite teams for January.

BETTING ANGLE:
GS has SU won last 6 games while covering the spread in 4 of those wins. Bookmakers know how good GS can be hence why they were underdogs only once in December. They were 7 point favorites against SA on 12/19 while being 6 point favorites against ORL 12/31 (i cashed in HARD yesterday). Be careful betting on GS, this win streak cannot last forever plus bookies will overvalue GS going forward. I do think they are a good team to follow

1/2/14 GS@MIA
I expect MIA to be single digit favorites and I will most likely bet on GS with the help of the spread. MIA is a unique team in that they lack a true big on defense (less rebounds and worse big-on-big defense). MIA thus relies on perimeter defenders to collapse inside for help defense(MIA is really good at this) which sometimes results in a frantic pass (turnover) or a pressured shot selection (miss). But what if opposing teams have a decent "BIG"? Let us look at MIA's most recent 4 losses.
Since Dec. 3, MIA has lost once each to DET, CHI, IND, SAC (BIG dominant teams) while blowing out (20+ points) MIN and UTA. In these 4 losses, opponent bigs scored the most points overall in 2/4 games (Boozer, Hibbert) while grabbing the most rebounds in 3/4 games (Drummond, Noah, Cousins). King James scored the most points in the remaining 2/4 games and grabbed the most rebounds in the remaining 1/4 game. I believe BIGS won these games against MIA. (btw, when considering opposing teams only, ignoring the king, Bigs scored the most points on their respective teams: Monroe, Boozer, Hibbert, Cousins).

In conclusion: I strongly believe that opposing teams need a skilled big to beat Miami. The bigs need to possess passing, scoring, and rebounding abilities. Bigs like Lopez or Varejao don't possess all three, but Monroe/Drummond, Boozer, Hibbert, Cousins(?) surely do. Here comes my make or break question: Does David Lee/Andrew Bogut have the BIG advantage? I believe they do.

This is GS's 2nd road game in 3 days. They have well-rested starters on day 1 @ORL when they won easily with the bench playing a large chunk. GS is fully heathy. David Lee and Andrew Bogut will surely out-rebound MIA. Lee has been shooting the ball well, a fluid semi-hook/layup (look at videos, it is good). The team has been passing the ball well. Would you bet against Curry, Thompson, Iguadola, Bogut, Lee?

I will wait for the point spread to be released for final decision.

-YTC

[YTC]

[NBA] Straight (Pinnacle) - 3 units
NO+5.5 @2.000

[NBA] 3-team parlay (Pinnacle) - 1 unit
DAL@WAS O205 @1.885
IND@TOR U193 @1.885
IND-5.5 @1.893

Thoughts on DAL@WAS O205: Recently, a lot of under picks have been hitting, but not for DAL and WAS. DAL: 6 of 8 have been over (most points total set above 200). WAS: 7 of 8 have been over. Both teams have porous defense (allowing over 100pts per game to opponents). Both teams have got the players needed to run the pace (montaellishavitall, a basketball jones reference) and judging by the spread, this is a close game on paper (hence basket trading due to porous defense).

Thoughts on IND: They just look dynamite. I am fine blindly taking the -5.5 spread without research. The O/U is a bit worrisome. I can say with confidence: IND defense will lock down TOR. I am looking for TOR to score 80-90 due to IND defense. IND offense is the worrisome part for us under-takers. IND has scored over 100 in 4 of past 5 games (last nightin CLE, they had a lot of first half shots that were unlucky). I am predicting IND scores 100 or more against TOR's porous defense. In conclusion, I trust IND defense to lock down TOR.

-YTC

[YTC]

[NBA] Straight (Pinnacle) - 1 units
DAL+1.5 @2.000

Dirk is a mismatch for WAS frontline. In my opinion, DAL (5 games above .500) is under-performing while WAS (.500 record) is over-performing. In past 10 games, DAL has a points margin of +1.60 while WAS is exactly 0. Turnover and Rebounding is about the same. On paper, neither team has a significant advantage. I trust the star play of DAL (Ellis, Nowitzki, Marion) to pull through. Not the best game of the day, but I trust DAL is the better team + spread advantage. I can understand why WAS is favored, they have been shooting very well recently (48.1% in past 6 games) but IMO only against so-so teams (NYK, BKN, BOS, MIN, DET, DET) while DAL has beaten HOU, CHI, MIN while losing against SA, PHX in their past 5 games. Which team has been more impressive? Which team should perform better than it has? Take Dallas SU or with the spread.

[YTC]

[NBA] Straight (Pinnacle) - 1 units
NO SU @2.500 (in-game live bet)

CURRENTLY NO@MIN is in-game:
I am liking what I see from NO in-game. Salivating the 2.500 so i pulled the trigger. A bit worried about foul trouble.

NO sits the starters and the bench lets MIN score 9 points. Foul trouble aggh!