Welcome to the world of reverse line movement. Reverse line movement takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.
Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.
To qualify a game for a play you must have at Least 60% of Bets on Side & Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point. Any injury to a starter and the game is a no play since the line will be adjusted by the book for that player(s) absence. Below are the results from previous years and sports to show over time if you completely stick to this and this only you will benefit over time.
League W L P Pct Units
NFL 2008 18 - 13- 1 58.1% 2.83
NFL 2007 155- 130 -9 54.4% 18.62
NCAAF 2008 137- 106- 8 56.4% 17.51
NCAAF 2007 227 -156- 4 59.3% 49.49
NBA 2007-8 221 -182 -6 54.8% 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 272- 203 -11 57.3% 42.04
This is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping. Lets do this until the end of the basketball season and then into baseball and see what happens.
We will start tonight, Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Every week, regardless of the sport, head-scratching upsets take place that have bettors cursing the heavens and crying foul while ripping up there tickets.
So what causes reverse line movement when the aim of most bookmakers is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors. You see, reverse movement takes when more money is bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares). Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money.
Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run.
To qualify a game for a play you must have at Least 60% of Bets on Side & Reverse Line Move of at least 1 point. Any injury to a starter and the game is a no play since the line will be adjusted by the book for that player(s) absence. Below are the results from previous years and sports to show over time if you completely stick to this and this only you will benefit over time.
League W L P Pct Units
NFL 2008 18 - 13- 1 58.1% 2.83
NFL 2007 155- 130 -9 54.4% 18.62
NCAAF 2008 137- 106- 8 56.4% 17.51
NCAAF 2007 227 -156- 4 59.3% 49.49
NBA 2007-8 221 -182 -6 54.8% 18.89
NCAAB 2007-8 272- 203 -11 57.3% 42.04
This is an approach that makes money in the long run without doing any handicapping. Lets do this until the end of the basketball season and then into baseball and see what happens.
We will start tonight, Wednesday, February 25, 2009
