Leans for Sunday 2/22/09 Schaapattack Week

[cocknocker]

Well for Sunday's action I am going for the juggular and eliminating points altogether. I am assuming that the Bulls will be a PK playing against a shorthanded Pacers squad, so I am projecting a moneyline for it. Minus the injuries I would have capped this game out at Indiana-2.5. But since the injuries have to be factored in...Well you get the picture. This is by no means what the actual moneyline will be for the game itsself! If Chicago is favored in the game, then I am looking for a 1 point spread. I will take the moneyline up to but not over -150, so hopefully they aren't favored by more than 3. If so, then i am going to play Boston moneyline only.

Boston +105 moneyline
Chicago-120 moneyline
Lakers/T-Wolves over 216 (Pho3nix32's last play)
Boston+.5 1st quarter


This is schaapattack Week so when his picks come up than I will list them.

schaapattack's picks -O-The -Day

NBA

Minneota T-Wolves +9.5 (10 for me)
Charlotte+6 (This mirrors Style's (+6.5)play of the day)
Detroit+9 (10 for me)

CBB

Northwestern+6 (+6.5 for me)
George Washington +17.5 (+18.5 for me)
Duke-7.5 Added play by shaapattack
Arizona State-7.5 added play by shaapattack

I will not be making any 2nd half plays today to clear up the questions and ambiguity. This is an update at 4:22pm

I want to thank anthonydiamondsLC and Pho3nix32 for good solid handicapping in the last two weeks. I kind of wish that anthonydiamonds would show a little more class these days, but that's just my own personal preference. To open up a demeaning thread dedicated to another person is not really classy at all. I expected less from Smacky and got it, and more from anthonydiamonds who shares the same first name as myself. But hey, it's a free country. Have to it.

A special thanks is extended to hockeytown11, who after what seems like a year, finally had one of those days yesterday.

However, the streak was impressive enough to say this guy is just unreal.

On Saturday, the Secret Plays went 2-2-1 nothing lost nothing gained. And no Purdue was NOT a Secret Play as there was a moneyline assigned to the 1st half.

The Secret Play record is now 42-23-3 ats. As is now the case, I will not be listing said plays, but just know that I am playing them and if you wish to play them you will be pulling out the gun loading it and squeezing the trigger all by yourself as I am not going to list them for college basketball or football anymore because guys bitch and moan too much for my style. If you play them you will be doing it as a conscious choice not aided or suggested by yours truly. See this way you can't blame me for what YOU do, becasue I won't be telling you to do a thing. The choice is now fully yours. I will not explain it anymore. If you already know what it is then cool. If you don't then out of respect for the CK Mafia and the climate of this thread, I can't help you with that. I kept a file of the complaints, and truth be told to be frustrated is human...however to forgive is not my policy. So hopefully this will help out thse who don't fully understand why they aren't being listed anymore. Some are suggesting that it is a strange coincidence and all kinds of other nonsense. No stange coincidence at all here. What it means is that they are going back to being my own private plays.

It is a season long wagering style, much like the JM System, and should be treated as such, or simply left alone and not played at all.

I will not be listing the JM Plays either gentlemen. There are a couple tonight. You must be in the know to get them.

[nonsense48]

here here ck, well said, well explained. good luck my friend

[woodyman]

ck, concerned about kg being out?

[pho3nix32]

Thank you CK for having me as a guest last week on the CK Sports Show, appreciated it dude. For tomorrow's pick:

line: lal@mt 216
pick: 216 over

Some sick over trends:

- The over for the Lakers is 30-18 as favorites this season.
- The over for the Lakers is 19-6 after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
- The over for the Lakers is 18-6 against teams with a losing record.
- The over for the Lakers is 18-5 against poor defensive teams this season.
- The over for the Twolves is 16-10 in home games this season.
- The over for the Twolves is 14-8 against good offensive teams this season.
- The over for the Twolves is 5-0 in their last 5 games.
- Head to head, the over is 5-0 in games played in Minny the last 3 seasons.

Enough said...this game has "high-scoring" written all over it. Enjoy another run and gun affair between these two ball clubs tomorrow fellas.

[nonsense48]

booked:xavier-10 1st 1/2

[nonsense48]

xavier should roll over g.w. from the opening tip to the final buz. jmo

[heyheyhey]

i also like the over for my twolves pho3nix32, gl

[nonsense48]

ck, i got the suns at a pick early. i think that boston just isn't the same without the muscle and inside presence of k.g. and with the new suns and the run and gun since the departure of porter and shaq playing like shaq of 5 yrs ago, i felt the suns were the obvious choice in this instance. jmo

[SportNut]

Chicago will be a good play since Pacers got no Mike Dunleavy and Granger..

[The_Kid]

ck, i got the suns at a pick early.

non, I know what you're thinking but the Suns just beat up on two of the worst teams in the league. Does that warrant them to be favored over the Celtics even without KG? Personally, I don't think so. I know they've gone back to their running ways and obviously, a lot of players are enjoying that (Nash, Barbosa, and even Richardson seems to be snapping out of his slump). They've played one game without Stoudemire and three games since Porter got fired. Tomorrow, we will find out if this team can be consistent enough to the point where I can trust them on a nightly basis. The Celtics are obviously not as great without KG but Pierce and Allen can carry the load and I think Rondo can give Nash fits.

booked:xavier-10 1st 1/2

From what I'm seeing, that's the only SP for tomorrow? I can't verify that because I don't have an account at The Greek...

[mb19]

Houston -6
Parlay: Houston -6 and over 183

T-Mac is long gone and the rockets are way better on offense this year without him. Add that to the rockets being so much better on offense with Brooks playing and you got the over. I think the line is going to move to 8 by tip off.

Celtics/Phoenix Over 225
I want to take the Suns but Nash vs. rondo worries me a lot. I will hope for a whole lot of line movement come tomorrow morning. I think it was dexter (could be wrong) that said take the over with the suns until it fails. With KG is healthy the celtics play considerably worse D when he is on the bench, with him out I see both teams going up and down the court.

[SportNut]

I don't think KG's playing tomorrow...

[SportNut]

Houston -6
Parlay: Houston -6 and over 183

T-Mac is long gone and the rockets are way better on offense this year without him. Add that to the rockets being so much better on offense with Brooks playing and you got the over. I think the line is going to move to 8 by tip off.

Celtics/Phoenix Over 225
I want to take the Suns but Nash vs. rondo worries me a lot. I will hope for a whole lot of line movement come tomorrow morning. I think it was dexter (could be wrong) that said take the over with the suns until it fails. With KG is healthy the celtics play considerably worse D when he is on the bench, with him out I see both teams going up and down the court.

I think Suns is the better play than the over..just my 2cents.

[nonsense48]

k.g. is out for 2-3 wks. and the last time they played in pho. exactly one yr. ago today with a healthy k.g., pho. won by 8 and the score wasn't indicitive of the game as the suns let up on the celts or they would have won by 15

[nonsense48]

booked:bos/pho under 224.5 phoenix32, i think the over 224.5 is extremely high. i don't think bos/pho has ever come even close to a total that high so don't let the books fool you because of the suns last 3 games. they won't score like that against the celts.

[natelli1]

i think the suns are gonna win this game outright .. they got embarrased when they went to boston, this game is personal for the suns

[nonsense48]

phoenix32, please give me your take on the extremely high total in the bos/pho game.

[peetlui]

booked:bos/pho under 224.5 phoenix32, i think the over 224.5 is extremely high. i don't think bos/pho has ever come even close to a total that high so don't let the books fool you because of the suns last 3 games. they won't score like that against the celts.

I tend to agree with you non, this is one of the highest totals I have ever seen in ANY game involving the Boston Celtics, maybe the highest.

[heyheyhey]

i think it might be close but it will be under

[chris440]

going big on boston
phoenix need a reality check that they're last 3 games were to the clippers and thunder
and also no amare

[heyheyhey]

the more i think about it the more i like the under on boston/phoenix even without KG, playing it big

[mehow]

i think cris440 you will be disappointed about playing big on boston. suns is having a big motivation to show that they are a good team, and that they can play great match even without Amare. i will be on phoenix this time. gl with other plays

[joanapoker]

yesterday was a bad day for us, HT followers, but he still made us all plenty of money so today I'm playing twice as hard his puck plays

For today early games I've already booked:
NYK/TOR UNDER 215.5 (b2b theory)
BOS/PHX UNDER 224.5 (let's see if phx scores heavy against a solid defensive team)

[pho3nix32]

phoenix32, please give me your take on the extremely high total in the bos/pho game.

hey non, my take on this game:

Ever since the Celtics acquired KG, they have been defensive juggernauts. KG is the defensive glue that holds the team together. This year, I noticed that the defense is still there but they added another weapon in Rondo's improvement. I've watched Celtics games and noticed that Rondo pushes the ball a lot. I've bet a bunch of overs on the Celtics and won this season.

For the Suns, their offense is back to "7 seconds or less". I'm a Suns fan and I've seen how they played under this system. I find this offense quite chaotic and hard to defend. They just aggressively run and jack up shots in a hurry. And Nash is unbelievably good in distributing the ball. The only way the total will go under if they start bricking. I think that the Suns have so much energy at this point of the season after being imprisoned in Porter's slow-down paced. I'm not quite sure if Boston will be able to stop them from running tomorrow.

The game tomorrow will not showcase KG and Amare. No KG means no defensive glue on the court. IMO, the Celtics will run with the Suns tomorrow since they are also capable to push the ball. Yes the line is high, but its there for a reason. I learned in this forum that it takes nuts to win bets. Now, this type of line is to see whether or not you have the nuts to take it.

Boston is synonymous to defense, but without KG, they are just an ordinary defensive team. If I play this game, im going with the over.

[handimann]

no bias, but i am going with the suns as long as they love this new style of play. jrich and barnes have filled in very nicely and they will take on the challenge of a celtics team coming off losing KG and in the midst of a long road trip. they will definitely beat the celtics by at least 1.5 pts.

[peterpan19]

plays I like so far are for the early ones:
Clemson -7 (but waiting to see what shaap has, bc I dont want to bet against him), playing great as of late and GT is so bad and I normally dont look at how they played the same opponents, but Clemson destroyed Maryland at home and GT lost by 1 at home to them
Pho -2, revenge game, and even if it was only against LAC and OKC but you dont score that many points against anyone in the NBA if you dont have it, and now BOS without KG, fast pace and high scoring affair, give me the home team here
NY +3, I know b2b games, you should take Tor and the under in that one, but no way NY will even loose this one here today, they will continue to put up big points (110+) and I just dont see how Tor could match that one
Chi +whatever, Chi is playing some great ball as of late, add in the Pacers injuries, ck nice pick that will cash

later on:
Por -? question will the Clippers have more than 7 or 8 guys ready for todays game ? check the injury report on that one later today

ck
whats styles playing today ?

[BCaldwell32]

The Celtics have the best defense in the NBA! They will be without KG for the next few weeks and will look for some role players to step up in his absence. Phoenix has the appearance of a team that is rejuvenated under their new coach but let's not get to excited beating up on the Clippers and Thunder. The Celtics defense does not let teams run and gun on them, they play great half court defense and force teams into taking tough contested shots all game long. When I saw this game coming up about mid week, I capped the total at around 210-215 which I felt would be difficult to reach. I think Stoudemire is more important to the Suns than KG is to the Celtics, so slight edge to Celtics with both out. Celtics win this game and it stays under the total comfortably.

Boston wins 110-103
Under 225

I am a Chicago homer living in Vegas now and let me tell you since Jordan left 10 years ago it has been rough to be a Bulls fan. They are however playing their best basketball this year and I see them winning tomorrow against an Indiana team without their star player Danny Granger. The Bulls are 9-1-1 last 11 ATS and have dominated the Pacers as of late going 12-5-1 ATS. Chicago is also 7-0-1 ATS last 8 road games. There are just to many things favoring the Bulls in this one, I see this being an easy win folks.

Bulls 102-95

Toronto is back to full strength and looking for revenge of Friday's beat down at the Garden. I see the Raps coming away with this one. Toronto is 6-2 ATS last 8 at home against the Knicks and I think this trend will continue with the revenge factor included.

Toronto 111-103

[BCaldwell32]

Hey Phoenix32, I think your statement about the total line being there so we can have the nuts to take it is quite the opposite, the linesmakers know everyone is gonna be all over the Suns and the overs for awhile and they set this line pretty high knowing it will still get plenty of takers. I would be completely shocked to see this game go over and only 4 of the Celtics games all year have eclipsed that total and one of them was in OT.

[chaseman]

CK, thanks for the plays as usual. As for hockeytown, get em back tonight! Thanks fellas

[pho3nix32]

Hey Phoenix32, I think your statement about the total line being there so we can have the nuts to take it is quite the opposite, the linesmakers know everyone is gonna be all over the Suns and the overs for awhile and they set this line pretty high knowing it will still get plenty of takers. I would be completely shocked to see this game go over and only 4 of the Celtics games all year have eclipsed that total and one of them was in OT.

hey bcaldwell32, great writeups!

well be prepared to be shocked tomorrow lol! just kidding, i still standby my opinion on this game. the public is actually siding with the under because of the high total, which makes me believe that this game will go over.

[Dexter]

2/22 - sunday

as i've been saying, i will now start to ride the suns over until a game stays under. shame on me for scratching that winner on fri cause of amare.

-over suns (big)
________________
the heat will be on a btb facing a rested magic team who looked great vs charl in alston's debut. both teams have defended their home court su/ats this year, and the magic are 5-0 su/ats the last 5 at home to the heat - winning by an avg margin of 22ppg.

-magic (big)

[hockeytown11]

Bruta lnight last night,hopefully today starts a new streak

[showtime2000]

So far today, i wil continue to ride the ATS trend for New York, 16-1ATS when they score 105+ in 3 or more conseuctive games.
New York

[joanapoker]

The total line is droping at Suns....it's now 223 at my book!! I kinda like that to support my UNDER 224.5

[Dexter]

yes, it has dropped joana - i dont have a great feel for nba totals, but i was thinking this total should be around 220.

i'm going to wait until tipoff to play this over.