OVERS (8 yesterday 100%)

[EasyPicks]

Yesterday 16 teams played and 12 of them scored 100 points or more and the other 4 teams scored 98 or 99 points!

This year alone a massive 14/15 teams are averaging 100 points or more per game, that's 40 to 60% more than the past 10 years (excluding the 2009/2010 season) but still the OVER/UNDER for the season are 50/50 % with already 254 games played.

What's our opinion on how sharp the Total lines are being set?
For me it was usually always a little softer to cap the totals but it's getting hard as fkkkk

[Mocknroll]

The trend I am starting to notice is the disparity of individual teams over/under records is indicating where books are setting the totals.

For example, Atlanta started the season 5-0 on overs. The number moved up slightly on their totals and they went 3-9 on overs through their next 12 including a stretch of 5 unders.

People usually stay on the train until it derails, so as long as they're winning with a team trend they aren't getting off it regardless of the number. Books will try and derail that train by moving the number against the trend, regardless of what the number should be. It's not about the number as much as it's about the percentage on either side of it on a nightly basis.

This is where I think the real indicators are.

I would expect it's in the books best interests to get people off the Pacers under train. I think tonight's game against Portland is set at least 5 points too low to scare people off the under, which along with the actual numbers is why I think the over is a solid play. I will also be looking at Indi overs through their next couple of games to see if there's any meat left on the bone so to speak.

Teams with lopsided total records that I think we start to see even out in the next few games are (over/under):
Boston 6-13
Charlotte 5-12-1
Indiana 5-12
Philadelphia 13-5
Sacramento 5-10

Basically, these trends can't continue to keep getting even more lopsided than they already are. I think you'll start to see Philly totals go up by 2 or 3 points in their next few. Philly games average 213 points yet the total lines pre-tip for their games are averaging just 204. The totals for those other teams should soften to stop the unders trend continuing.

You're spot on about the points being vastly higher but we've already seen that books have allowed for this by setting totals higher than you'd expect to keep the over/under ledger even.

Overs have gone 13-2 through the last 2 days which is astonishing. I still think the Indi game goes over but I'd be very surprised to see overs outweigh the unders on tonight's card.

[tbird509]

4th qtr overs were 5-2 and a push yesterday,im going to keep betting them small cash until they lose consistently

[alamo]

The trend I am starting to notice is the disparity of individual teams over/under records is indicating where books are setting the totals.

For example, Atlanta started the season 5-0 on overs. The number moved up slightly on their totals and they went 3-9 on overs through their next 12 including a stretch of 5 unders.

People usually stay on the train until it derails, so as long as they're winning with a team trend they aren't getting off it regardless of the number. Books will try and derail that train by moving the number against the trend, regardless of what the number should be. It's not about the number as much as it's about the percentage on either side of it on a nightly basis.

This is where I think the real indicators are.

I would expect it's in the books best interests to get people off the Pacers under train. I think tonight's game against Portland is set at least 5 points too low to scare people off the under, which along with the actual numbers is why I think the over is a solid play. I will also be looking at Indi overs through their next couple of games to see if there's any meat left on the bone so to speak.

Teams with lopsided total records that I think we start to see even out in the next few games are (over/under):
Boston 6-13
Charlotte 5-12-1
Indiana 5-12
Philadelphia 13-5
Sacramento 5-10

Basically, these trends can't continue to keep getting even more lopsided than they already are. I think you'll start to see Philly totals go up by 2 or 3 points in their next few. Philly games average 213 points yet the total lines pre-tip for their games are averaging just 204. The totals for those other teams should soften to stop the unders trend continuing.

You're spot on about the points being vastly higher but we've already seen that books have allowed for this by setting totals higher than you'd expect to keep the over/under ledger even.

Overs have gone 13-2 through the last 2 days which is astonishing. I still think the Indi game goes over but I'd be very surprised to see overs outweigh the unders on tonight's card.

Great post Mock. Just wondering do you post plays yourself on SBR ? I love betting totals and with the exception of BJB7223 there are no good posters for totals.

[EasyPicks]

Teams with lopsided total records that I think we start to see even out in the next few games are (over/under):
Boston 6-13
Charlotte 5-12-1
Indiana 5-12
Philadelphia 13-5
Sacramento 5-10

Basically, these trends can't continue to keep getting even more lopsided than they already are. I think you'll start to see Philly totals go up by 2 or 3 points in their next few. Philly games average 213 points yet the total lines pre-tip for their games are averaging just 204. The totals for those other teams should soften to stop the unders trend continuing.

I like your approach on the matter but the only problem I see by looking at individual team O/U records is that eventually one or two will end up really lopsided by the end of the season (eg. Boston 33-49)...and we have no idea (now) to guess which teams are gonna be.

[NYSportsGuy210]

Betting Charlotte unders has been money for me usually. And the last 4-5 years Charlotte I have noticed tends to be in a lot of Unders games. Bucks three years ago were like this. Boston, still defensive minded, might also be in this type cast through out the season.

[EasyPicks]

Betting Charlotte unders has been money for me usually. And the last 4-5 years Charlotte I have noticed tends to be in a lot of Unders games. Bucks three years ago were like this. Boston, still defensive minded, might also be in this type cast through out the season.

any reliable site (covers just shows this year trends) where I can see the overall past O/U records per team, per season?

[Time is Money]

The trend I am starting to notice is the disparity of individual teams over/under records is indicating where books are setting the totals.

For example, Atlanta started the season 5-0 on overs. The number moved up slightly on their totals and they went 3-9 on overs through their next 12 including a stretch of 5 unders.

People usually stay on the train until it derails, so as long as they're winning with a team trend they aren't getting off it regardless of the number. Books will try and derail that train by moving the number against the trend, regardless of what the number should be. It's not about the number as much as it's about the percentage on either side of it on a nightly basis.

This is where I think the real indicators are.

I would expect it's in the books best interests to get people off the Pacers under train. I think tonight's game against Portland is set at least 5 points too low to scare people off the under, which along with the actual numbers is why I think the over is a solid play. I will also be looking at Indi overs through their next couple of games to see if there's any meat left on the bone so to speak.

Teams with lopsided total records that I think we start to see even out in the next few games are (over/under):
Boston 6-13
Charlotte 5-12-1
Indiana 5-12
Philadelphia 13-5
Sacramento 5-10

Basically, these trends can't continue to keep getting even more lopsided than they already are. I think you'll start to see Philly totals go up by 2 or 3 points in their next few. Philly games average 213 points yet the total lines pre-tip for their games are averaging just 204. The totals for those other teams should soften to stop the unders trend continuing.

You're spot on about the points being vastly higher but we've already seen that books have allowed for this by setting totals higher than you'd expect to keep the over/under ledger even.

Overs have gone 13-2 through the last 2 days which is astonishing. I still think the Indi game goes over but I'd be very surprised to see overs outweigh the unders on tonight's card.

Solid post. Books tried to do the same with Pacers / Clippers o/U yesterday and it flew over, I'm on the over again tonight

[NYSportsGuy210]

I believe the New Orleans vs. Chicago Bulls game might have a better chance of going over at 192. Pelicans score a lot on the road and the Bulls are w/o D. Rose. Could be a faster than normal paced tempo here.

[b1slickguy]

Through 265 games this season the league is scoring an avg 2.5 ppg more than in 2012. Totals have increased an avg 2.0 points compared to 2012. Also, refs have called an avg 1.46 more fouls per game than last season.

[Mocknroll]

Through 265 games this season the league is scoring an avg 2.5 ppg more than in 2012. Totals have increased an avg 2.0 points compared to 2012. Also, refs have called an avg 1.46 more fouls per game than last season.

Another thing to consider is the new delay of game rules. I love being on an over and seeing a big goofy center tap the ball to the baseline and hearing the ref blow the whistle. I don't necessarily think it's good for the game but it's good for overs. I wonder what the figures are for delay of game techs this season are?

[Mocknroll]

Also, overs went 4-1 tonight (would still be 4-1 regardless of Chi NO 3OT) which brings totals to 17-3 in the last 3 days. Not sure how many guys would pay attention to that or whether books will adjust.

[Mocknroll]

Great post Mock. Just wondering do you post plays yourself on SBR ? I love betting totals and with the exception of BJB7223 there are no good posters for totals.

I don't post plays on the site mate. Mainly due to time difference (Aus) as well as SBR being quick to jump on anyone who posts a loser or strings 2 bad days together. Would be nice if it was a forum for positive criticism but that's not the case (see Rkapper who went 20-5 or something and people swarm to leave hate. Guy was hitting 80% and people were slating him). I don't benefit from the added pressure. I just prefer to engage in insight and discussions (much like this one).

For what it's worth I am on the Thunder Kings o203. I'm looking at the Kings totals to even out and I think this is a great spot for the over. Wouldn't play it in OKC but love it in SacTown.

[EasyPicks]

Also, overs went 4-1 tonight (would still be 4-1 regardless of Chi NO 3OT) which brings totals to 17-3 in the last 3 days. Not sure how many guys would pay attention to that or whether books will adjust.

and again 8 in 10 teams scoring 100 or more (with WAS staying real close with 98)

[NYSportsGuy210]

Yea NBA is looking more and more like the NFL now with these "passer friendly" rules. Both leagues have teams for the most part that are lax when it comes to playing defenses or rule changes to benefit offensive play more over the past decade.

[tbird509]

4th qtr overs were 5-2 and a push yesterday,im going to keep betting them small cash until they lose consistently

fyi
4 of the 5 games last night,4th qtr over hit again

[Time is Money]

Another thing to consider is the new delay of game rules. I love being on an over and seeing a big goofy center tap the ball to the baseline and hearing the ref blow the whistle. I don't necessarily think it's good for the game but it's good for overs. I wonder what the figures are for delay of game techs this season are?

on the contrary I've seen 6-7 seconds come off the clock watching the ref or opposing team chase the ball down after a basket because nobody wants to out a hand on it and it just hits against their body and rolls

[matt711]

Lets bet all unders tonite to cash....