Loungee's Official 2013/14 NBA Plays - Back to Make Some Damn Money!!

loungee · 11-15-13, 06:03 PM

Plays for 11/15

CHI +1 (2U) WIN
I like it because Rose is not playing, which might sound weird. He's still struggling to get the rust off and this team will be better off tonight against TOR without him.

CHI/TOR O183 (1U) LOSS
My system has this total set at 187 so we are getting 4 points of value so I will roll with the over.

MIN -2 (1U) LOSS
PHO +1 (1U) LOSS
I'm going to continue to tail the Suns ATS until they otherwise prove me wrong. One of the better stories this year, I believe the young Suns handle business at home against an old, tiring Nets team.

Best of Luck. I may add 1-2 more plays later.

loungee · 11-15-13, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by loungee

Plays for 11/15

CHI +1 (2U)
I like it because Rose is not playing, which might sound weird. He's still struggling to get the rust off and this team will be better off tonight against TOR without him.

CHI/TOR O183 (1U)
My system has this total set at 187 so we are getting 4 points of value so I will roll with the over.

MIN -2 (1U)
PHO +1 (1U)
I'm going to continue to tail the Suns ATS until they otherwise prove me wrong. One of the better stories this year, I believe the young Suns handle business at home against an old, tiring Nets team.

Best of Luck. I may add 1-2 more plays later.

PHI/ATL O208 (2U) WIN
I'm on my way out the door so don't have time for a full writeup but as I dug a little deeper, I really like this play. Both teams are top 5-15 in scoring offense, eFG%, true shooting % as well as turnovers and bottom 1/3 as far as scoring defense. Best of Luck

loungee · 11-15-13, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by loungee

PHI/ATL O208 (2U)
I'm on my way out the door so don't have time for a full writeup but as I dug a little deeper, I really like this play. Both teams are top 5-15 in scoring offense, eFG%, true shooting % as well as turnovers and bottom 1/3 as far as scoring defense. Best of Luck

LAL +3.5 (1U) WIN
A good spot for the Lakeshow, as they welcome in the surprisingly bad Memphis team. Well, maybe not bad, but they're playing bad. The Lakers have surprised a lot of people this year, with good SU wins against HOU, LAC and NOP. Yes, their ATS record is mediocre but at home, they play hard and play well. This year ATS at home, they are 4-1 and as home underdogs, they are 3-1. MEM is an appalling 1-7 ATS with their lone cover coming against at beat up GSW team without Curry and in MEM. I like the Lakers here, as they have proved they can grind wins out, win when least expected and all in all, stay in games, as their only blowout home loss was to the T'Wolves by 23.

loungee · 11-15-13, 09:52 PM

2-1 +3U on the early plays so far. Not too bad. I shouldve known better on the CHI/TOR O, despite what my system said. Gut said U.. lesson learned. BOL on the rest of tonights plays

loungee · 11-16-13, 12:51 AM

ATS Record: 2-2-0 (+1.00 units)
O/U Record: 1-1-0 (+1.00 units)
Overall Record: 3-3-0 (+2.00 units)

Recap of 11/15 Plays:
PHO deserved to lose that game. We should've won but their piss-poor shot selection near the end of regulation and OT cost us that bet. I don't know if they didn't understand game situations, what they needed or simply didn't know the score but that one was tough. Either way, it was a profitable night with two 2U plays hitting along with hitting the Lakers with the hook hitting as well. Couple of plays I'm leaning already for tomorrow. Will do my research, use my system and back to post tomorrow.

loungee · 11-16-13, 03:16 PM

ATS Record: 2-2-0 (+1.00 units)
O/U Record: 1-1-0 (+1.00 units)
Overall Record: 3-3-0 (+2.00 units)

Plays for 11/16 Saturday

ORL +3 (1U) LOSS
DAL fought hard last night in MIA, keeping pace and keeping it close but ultimately, they came up short. ORL has been playing rather well this year, covering their first 5 but not their last 4. This has more to do with Vegas undervaluing them in the beginning of the year and correcting their lines as the time goes on. However, I think ORL at home, with good, young talent, catching an old DAL team on a back to back after a tough loss is a great spot.

OKC -10 (1U) WIN
I hate laying double digit points with a team on the road but this is really set up for it. OKC is coming in after a night off and off a heartbreaking loss at GSW while MIL is coming off a blowout loss and playing on no rest. MIL will play hard and I expect this to be semi-close halfway through the 2nd quarter until OKC blows them out.

loungee · 11-16-13, 06:11 PM

BRK +14 (1U) WIN
Yes, Pierce, Lopez and Williams are out. I'm well aware of that. That's why I'm making this play.Clippers are good, we know that, at least offensively they are. But when a team is missing it's star (or stars) they try just that much harder knowing how much slack they will have to pick up. And the Nets bench is probably the deepest in the league. I believe they can keep this within 10 or at the very least, backdoor cover.

ATL/NYK O202 (1U) LOSS
Knicks can't play defense nor do they score like they could last year but they have Melo, a volume shooter who is never afraid to shoot, along with the reckless J.R. Smith. Both have never seen a shot they don't like. You mix Knicks bad defense cause a surprisingly top ATL offense (9th in PPG, 6th in OFF. Efficiency, 5th in Shooting %, 7th in eFG% and 7th in True Shooting %). Given ATL's offense and poor defense as well as playing on back to back nights, I'm going with the over. BOL

loungee · 11-16-13, 06:38 PM

CHI PK (2U) WIN

I like this play a lot for a couple reasons. One, this is a typical home-revenge type game. Chicago got absolutely embarassed in Indy last time these two teams met earlier this year and this is a proud team with a Top 3 coach who will have these Bulls ready for tonight. I do believe Rose sat out last night to be prepared for this game, at least that was some of the chatter on Chicago Sports radio in the last 2 days. It's only 7 games into the Bulls season so the rust is not completely gone from Rose but he will be ready tonight as I see this as a 24-7-5 type game for him. Look for him to defer less to his team early on and try to take control, sucking the defense into him as he looks for the open man. Butler's early season struggles is not concerning to me so much as he is learning to play with Rose, learn each others tendencies, etc. I expect a low-scoring, methodical game so the under of 177 might not be a bad play but for now, I am making this play for 2 units.

loungee · 11-17-13, 01:13 AM

Recap of 11/16 Plays:

Another positive night, winning record and adding units but I was disappointed about not hitting the ATL/NYK over. Just so close but we went 3-2, adding +2.0 units to the bankroll. I haven't looked quite yet at tomorrows card as I have been capping the NFL today. Check out my NFL page for my picks: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...eeds-made.html

ATS Record: 5-3-0 (+4.00 units)
O/U Record: 1-2-0 (0.00 units)
Overall Record: 3-3-0 (+4.00 units)

loungee · 11-18-13, 07:08 PM

I apologize I don't have enough time for write-ups but will add when I get home. I do have 3 plays for tonight:
CHI -12.5 (2U)
DEN/OKC O212 (1U)
MEM/LAC U197 (1U)

loungee · 11-18-13, 08:15 PM

CHI -12.5 (1U) LOSS
Call this more of a gut call but the Bulls looked much better against the Pacers. Yes, as I stated earlier, it was a revenge game, at home and this is the lowly Bobcats. But as we've seen in years past, Thibs isn't afraid of keeping his starters in there deep into the 4th, regardless if it's a blowout or not. Even so, look for the bench, particularly Denleavy, to use this game to offcially find his shooting stroke.. a practice even. I expect Bobcats to make some runs but ultimately, Bulls cover.

DEN/OKC O212 (1U) WIN
There wasn't a ton of value in my system but DEN and OKC are pretty high in pace, ranking 2nd and 12th respectively, while OKC ranks 2nd and DEN 5th in OFF Eff. On top of that, both scoring defenses are in the bottom 3rd. I'm not high on betting totals over 208 but I'm gonna go with this one for one unit.

MEM/LAC U197 (1U) LOSS
I see this more of a slow pace, half court game, or at least thats how MEM wants to keep this, as there is no way they'll be able to keep up with LAC. Surprisingly, I see this more of a 98-90 game. I'm getting 4 points of value on my system and the only thing stopping me from upping the units is that fact it's the Clippers.

I apologize these are not more indepth of writeups but tonight is a busy night so i did the best I could. Best of luck.

loungee · 11-19-13, 12:57 AM

ATS Record: 5-4-0 (+3.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-3-0 (0.00 units)
Overall Record: 7-7-0 (+3.00 units)

Slow start so far to the season. Couple of plays I'm leaning for tomorrow already. Do a little more research and post tomorrow.

loungee · 11-19-13, 04:51 PM

HOU -10 (2U) WIN
I like the personal matchups, I like HOU at home, I think BOS has vastly overachieved already this year as the MIA game was more fluke than indicative of what the year will be. Everyone gets up for MIA. I see HOU handling BOS rather easily as Harden goes off for 35.

MIN -4 (1U) LOSS
Small road favorites are very spotty so far this year but I think MIN is finally coming into their own while WSH has continued to struggle, coming nowehere near the expectations set for them, a 7-8 seed. I just think the talent is there for MIN so take care of business on the road.

I will have a play on the PHO/SAC game later.

loungee · 11-19-13, 07:33 PM

Originally posted by loungee

HOU -10 (2U)
I like the personal matchups, I like HOU at home, I think BOS has vastly overachieved already this year as the MIA game was more fluke than indicative of what the year will be. Everyone gets up for MIA. I see HOU handling BOS rather easily as Harden goes off for 35.

MIN -4 (1U)
Small road favorites are very spotty so far this year but I think MIN is finally coming into their own while WSH has continued to struggle, coming nowehere near the expectations set for them, a 7-8 seed. I just think the talent is there for MIN so take care of business on the road.

I will have a play on the PHO/SAC game later.

SAC -2 (1U) WIN
PHO has been a big surprise this year, both their overall record and ATS record, holding the best ATS record in the league. With that being said, I think this is a tough spot for the Suns. Gordon is questionable, which means hes at least hobbled so if he plays, he's not 100%. If he doesn't, I can only see this team struggling without him. I played the angle before with CHI to cover without their superstar but the Suns supporting cast is faaaaaar from that of the Bulls. I'll take Kings for 1 unit.

loungee · 11-19-13, 10:09 PM

MIN -4 was looking good for the first half.. and then they proceed to take a crap. At least the HOU 2U bet is, knock on wood, looking good and safe up 27 with 6 mins left. Turn things around with a finish of 2-0 on the night would be a good start.

loungee · 11-20-13, 12:44 AM

ATS Record: 7-5-0 (+5.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-3-0 (0.00 units)
Overall Record: 9-8-0 (+5.00 units)

I can't argue with a 2-1 +2 unit night by being greedy, but the T'Wolves really let me down with their second half play that could've made it a nice clean sweep. Take what you can get. On to tomorrow

loungee · 11-20-13, 09:05 PM

PHO -5.5 (1U) LOSS
HOU+3 (2U) LOSS
GSW -4.5 (2U) LOSS

Write ups to come. Best of luck

loungee · 11-20-13, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by loungee

PHO -5.5 (1U)
HOU+3 (2U)
GSW -4.5 (2U)

Write ups to come. Best of luck

I apologize for the absent of write ups that I mentioned earlier but I got home way later than expected. Hope everyone was able to put in a few plays. Best of luck

ksnooksk · 11-20-13, 10:39 PM

Has the Phoenix gravy train finally dried up? Seems like it might be time to fade them for awhile. I was on them too, btw.

loungee · 11-20-13, 11:32 PM

Its tough to say if its officially dried up yet. I think this was one of my feel calls, a bad one at that, and playing the "gravy train" aspect as you said, and I didn't properly analyze a -6 favorite PHO team. They didn't deserve that, even if it is the second of a home-home matchup with the Kings and them being the home team. I think they just really struggle without Gordon and I should've actually stuck with my writeup from last night when I stated the Suns team as a whole is not capable of playing well without Gordon and the "superstar missing" angle (although I don't know if Gordon is that level quite yet, he's exceptionally good) should not apply to them. Wish I would've just continued with my train of thought from last nights game but what can you do. Hopefully the last two can cash.

loungee · 11-21-13, 04:19 PM

ATS Record: 7-8-0 (0.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-3-0 (0.00 units)
Overall Record: 9-8-0 (0.00 units)

What a rough night. HOU completely blew that game in the 4th, letting DAL come back and actually win. I was in some shock with that one. GSW was looking pretty good 1st half but I guess that's why you play two halves I suppose. 0-3 -5.00 units is a bad night but lets see if there's anything likable about tonight.

loungee · 11-21-13, 06:56 PM

Still reeling from the games last night but gotta get back on the horse and grind it out. I have one play now and one possible for the late game.

LAC/OKC U212.5 (1U)
Not a popular or sexy pick given the offensive power off both these teams. There could easily be a case made for the over here too. But I know the public will be all over this line (71% currently on it) and I like primetime unders. Teams generally don't want to look sloppy, unhinged and bad in primetime. Don't get me wrong (or nieve), this will be a fast paced, uptempo game.. to start. I'd be more inclined to take the first half O107 then game total. I see the second half being more of a methodical, slower paced game. Best of luck.

loungee · 11-22-13, 04:07 PM

CHI +3.5 (2U)

GSW/LAL O206 (1U)

SAS -2 (1U)

Write ups to come.

loungee · 11-22-13, 08:01 PM

Originally posted by loungee

CHI +3.5 (2U)

GSW/LAL O206 (1U)

SAS -2 (1U)

Write ups to come.

CHI +3.5 (2U) WIN
This line is all sorts of fishy. The Blazers 10-2 on the year (4-1 at home SU), 9-3 ATS (3-2 at home), have been one of the better home teams year in and year out while the Bulls have struggled early on in the year while Rose knocks off the rust and team chemistry forms, they just lost Butler for a extended amount of game (their second best perimeter defender and probably third overall on the team), are coming off a blowout lost to the Nuggets while playing on back to backs tonight and this spread is only -3.5? That doesn't sound fishy to anyone else? I've been on the wrong side of these lines too much, both NFL and NBA lately, so I refused to get suckered into a POR -3.5 at home line. I'm gonna go 2 units on the Bulls here as I have faith in them.

GSW/LAL O206 (1U) LOSS
I like the pace of both teams (GSW 5th, LAL 6th), with or without Curry, which I haven't been able to check quite yet if he is in fact playing. They are both currently top 10 in offensive efficeny (LAL 8th, GSW 10th), top 10 in PPG (LAL 6th, GSW 7th). This number seems a bit low but I like it a lot so i'll go one unit on the over.

SAS -2 (1U) WIN
I'm not quite buying that MEM has turned it around and an overall better team then they were day one. Two points is not a lot, especially for the Spurs on the road. They are a veteran team and can win anywhere. I like the small road favorite in this spot for a unit.

Best of luck.

loungee · 11-22-13, 11:59 PM

Bulls second half is getting a little tough to watch after that first half. 3rd quarter was by far their worse, or top 3 worse, quarters they've played this season. They tried running with the Blazers and lost. Badly. Hopefully they can continue to keep it close in the 4th. I did not see them completely crapping the bed like they did in the 3rd.. not with Thibs on the bench.

loungee · 11-23-13, 01:03 AM

ATS Record: 9-8-0 (+3.00 units)
O/U Record: 3-4-0 (0.00 units)
Overall Record: 12-12-0 (+3.00 units)

Would've loved to get that over but can't be too greedy I suppose. Still went 2-1, adding +2.00 units to the bankroll. Back to .500 after a 3-1 two day span. I'll take it.