Guys take the Pistons tomorrow night

[t-wizzle]

They will beat the Pacers. I happen to know this for a fact.

[t-wizzle]

Ok guys don't say I didn't warn you...

[ROFLcopter]

How do you know this for a fact?

Also, why is Miami only -5.5 at Toronto?

[NBA Maniac]

Chris Bosh not playing

[No coincidences]

What do you think the line will be?

[WalkingLuckCharm]

Was on it as soon as it came out. Let's fking get it

[Goat Milk]

I'd be worried about Paul George as a pistons backer. Who's gonna guard him? You have to go with a smaller rotation early imo and put Pope on him. Give us your inside info. Did the Pacers plane break down? Are they partying tonight?

[t-wizzle]

Lol no inside info.

Pacers will not be ready to play tomorrow night though.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

but yeah this game by no means is a lock. before the season even started i realised pacers were gonna be going hard out every single reg game to try get home court adv against heat (which is def possible). immensely helps that george hill is hurt though. what's his status quo?

[I am the one]

Poor analysis twizz

[No coincidences]

Pacers will not be ready to play tomorrow night though.

Why not?

[t-wizzle]

Why not?

Because they are a postseason team. I expect Indiana to lay some duds this year. Detroit matches up and neutralizes Hibbert. Goat raises a good point on George but I think Pistons pound away on the block tomorrow.

[vasilli07]

I think Rockets will be a better play tomorrow.

[nelsonrc24]

Yup, rockets is the best one today.

[Seto]

They have bulls on weds as well, I imagine that's one of your reasons

[Fred The Hammer]

I probably don't know 3 guys on Detroit and really don't like the NBA that much but I do know my Pacers. Teams are going to need someone to break them down off the drive like LeBron or Chris Paul to even get to 90 most nights on them. They have size inside and they also had the best 3 pt defense last year w/the length of guys like George on the perimeter. Stephenson also thinks he's Oscar Robertson right now....if I wanted to fade the Pacers I'd wait til he goes in one of his 3 week funks. Right now...Stephenson and George are going to be the best 2 players on the court vs many teams. Yeah they have Chicago tomorrow night but we HATE the Pistons ever since Malice at the Palace so I guarantee they're not looking ahead.

[BigDofBA]

Normally home dogs of +1 or +2 are an auto play for me but not here.

I don't feel like sweating this out all the way to the final minute so I'll look for a better play.

I would lean Pistons but my gut is telling me to stay away.

[t-wizzle]

Rough night ahead for George and Born Ready.

[t-wizzle]

Detroit now favored.

[No coincidences]

Detroit now favored.

I'd feel better if they weren't at this point to be honest.

[t-wizzle]

I'd feel better if they weren't at this point to be honest.

Why?

[dymd3z]

Do I need to double up on Detroit?

[No coincidences]

Why?

Short home dogs that move to favorites before tips have been getting destroyed (at least in the games I've played them). I don't know how many times recently I've been a football or basketball team at +2, they close at -1, and the bet crashes and burns. Used to be a cash cow; now it's the exact opposite. Ask Dex.

[t-wizzle]

Short home dogs that move to favorites before tips have been getting destroyed (at least in the games I've played them). I don't know how many times recently I've been a football or basketball team at +2, they close at -1, and the bet crashes and burns. Used to be a cash cow; now it's the exact opposite. Ask Dex.

Yea Idk I mean unless you have stats to back this up I can only go by your word.


I try to treat every game independently though.

[NBA Maniac]

No coin this year there have been 3 line changes ( favorite becoming underdog)
1 was a Win (new underdog won)
2 was a Loss (new underdog loss)

[aireent777]

Toss up game. Flip a coin.

[No coincidences]

Yea Idk I mean unless you have stats to back this up I can only go by your word.


I try to treat every game independently though.

Like I said, it used to be a gold mine. If you got a home team at +1 or +2 and they closed as a favorite, you could pretty much cash it before it even started.

Most recently, I got the Pelicans at +2.5, they closed at -1.5, and didn't even come close to winning. According to my records, it was the fifth time in seven games that I'd taken a home dog that closed as a favorite in either football or basketball and lost without covering. When I mentioned it to TK, he said he was having similar problems. I haven't gone back farther, but I know it doesn't seem to be a slam dunk or even a decent bet anymore. Hope this game doesn't follow that trend.

[beerman2619]

Lmao At The Guys Saying Rockets Are Best Play. Blazers At Home Very Tough Team. Just Got DoneBeating Spurs. Rockets Fourth Game In 5 Nights Blazers Win This One Kids.

[NBA Maniac]

Indiana (+1.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans 95-90
Toronto @ Milwaukee Bucks (+1) 97-90
Atlanta (+1) @ Lakers 103-105

[NBA Maniac]

Now things changed...(inversed)
So probably Detroits good side

[t-wizzle]

Like I said, it used to be a gold mine. If you got a home team at +1 or +2 and they closed as a favorite, you could pretty much cash it before it even started.

Most recently, I got the Pelicans at +2.5, they closed at -1.5, and didn't even come close to winning. According to my records, it was the fifth time in seven games that I'd taken a home dog that closed as a favorite in either football or basketball and lost without covering. When I mentioned it to TK, he said he was having similar problems. I haven't gone back farther, but I know it doesn't seem to be a slam dunk or even a decent bet anymore. Hope this game doesn't follow that trend.

It's really tough to say you might just be on the wrong ones. I don't think they are a slam dunk or a curse. I think you need to look at each play independently. Just because some other games crossed over the zero and didn't hit doesn't mean the next one won't. It means nothing honestly.

Also, that Pelicans game was opening night. There were an extra few days for bettors to get their action in. You don't usually see line moves that big. Also, it was a bad beat. They were winning all game and choked in the last couple minutes so not sure what you mean by not even close to winning.

[Tommy Karate]

Short home dogs that move to favorites before tips have been getting destroyed (at least in the games I've played them). I don't know how many times recently I've been a football or basketball team at +2, they close at -1, and the bet crashes and burns. Used to be a cash cow; now it's the exact opposite. Ask Dex.

yup....i was leaning det, and cringed when i saw the flip (ask maniac)...but then when i noticed 30% on det i got down small...

[No coincidences]

I think you need to look at each play independently.

I agree with you in theory, but I also think books have tendencies and inclinations to set certain lines at certain numbers to either draw as much even money as possible from both sides or one-sided betting to collect more than just juice. I really do. This particular game and line isn't under that umbrella, but when it comes to small home favorites, more often than not there's a reason they're only -1 to -3 -- typically because they aren't covering.

Of course each game is an independent event, but that doesn't mean oddsmakers aren't giving you a number or a line for a reason from time to time.

[t-wizzle]

I agree with you in theory, but I also think books have tendencies and inclinations to set certain lines at certain numbers to either draw as much even money as possible from both sides or one-sided betting to collect more than just juice. I really do. This particular game and line isn't under that umbrella, but when it comes to small home favorites, more often than not there's a reason they're only -1 to -3 -- typically because they aren't covering.

Of course each game is an independent event, but that doesn't mean oddsmakers aren't giving you a number or a line for a reason from time to time.

Coin the line opened Pistons +1.5. Sharp money came in n them and books adjusted the line and made them a fave an hour or so ago. That's it.

[JM92]

Good god Josh Smith is the dumbest player in the nba. And Chauncey might be a great leader in the locker room but damn he is a trigger happy m'rooster_eater right now as well. Betting the Pistons will be my biggest headache all season I guess.