pwangsta's NBA bets

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  • pwangsta
    SBR Rookie
    • 09-01-13
    • 8

    #1
    pwangsta's NBA bets
    Hi everyone, this is pwangsta. I've been lurking these forums for several months now, but with the new NBA season just getting started, I decided it was time to contribute something to give back to the community. This past offseason I developed a new system to model NBA games based on individual player performance and estimated playing times, and so far this season (albeit with a small sample size) it has performed very well. I'll be tracking those system bets in this thread. Unfortunately, the data my system relies on has only recently started being available to the public (pace-adjusted and on/off stats), so it's impossible to backtest. In case I've actually found something profitable rather than fluky, though, I thought it would be nice to have some documentation for the future.

    Plays for today will be posted shortly, once I run the numbers.
  • pwangsta
    SBR Rookie
    • 09-01-13
    • 8

    #2
    11/2 Picks

    Team Line Bet To Win
    PHI 9 15.75 14.32
    CHA 8 1.58 1.44
    MEM 2.5 5.46 4.96
    MIL 1 2.88 2.62
    UTA 6 12.76 11.6
    SAC 10.5 5.68 5.16
    IND -420 20.16 4.8
    PHI 375 15 56.24
    NOP -345 6.09 1.77
    MEM 125 8.56 10.7
    MIL 103 7.47 7.69
    UTA 240 13.37 32.08
    SAS -119 5.8 4.88
    Comment
    • hubbard689
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 10-28-12
      • 583

      #3
      Are those dollar amounts?!?! Really hope the Bobcats cover so you can go buy a cheeseburger!!
      Comment
      • pwangsta
        SBR Rookie
        • 09-01-13
        • 8

        #4
        Originally posted by pwangsta
        Team Line Bet To Win
        PHI
        9 15.75 14.32
        CHA
        8 1.58 1.44
        MEM
        2.5 5.46 4.96
        MIL
        1 2.88 2.62
        UTA
        6 12.76 11.6
        SAC
        10.5 5.68 5.16
        IND
        -420 20.16 4.8
        PHI
        375 15 56.24
        NOP
        -345 6.09 1.77
        MEM
        125 8.56 10.7
        MIL
        103 7.47 7.69
        UTA
        240 13.37 32.08
        SAS
        -119 5.8 4.88
        YTD:
        ATS: 1-5-0, bet 44.11, net -14.04, -31.8%
        ML: 3-4, bet 76.45, net +27.61, +36.1%
        Total: 4-9-0, bet 120.56, net +13.57, +11.3%

        A decent start today. Disappointed in the win% obviously, but its a small sample size, and we did end up plus money. I'll take it.
        Comment
        • pwangsta
          SBR Rookie
          • 09-01-13
          • 8

          #5
          11/3 Picks

          Team Line Bet To Win
          BOS 9.5 14.98 13.62
          WAS 13.5 7.9 7.18
          PHX 12.5 13 5.3 2.7 4.82 2.45
          LAL 1.5 2.45 2.23
          BOS 425 5.93 25.2
          WAS 1200 1.08 12.96
          BKN -270 9.21 3.41
          NYK -160 9.26 5.79
          LAL 105 7.35 7.72
          EDIT: Updated PHX ATS bet to account for news that Westbrook is supposedly playing tonight. Also, this makes the OKC ML playable, so adding the following play for about half a unit:

          Team Line Bet To Win
          OKC -1400 7.87 0.56
          Comment
          • pwangsta
            SBR Rookie
            • 09-01-13
            • 8

            #6
            Originally posted by pwangsta
            Team Line Bet To Win
            BOS
            9.5 14.98 13.62
            WAS
            13.5 7.9 7.18
            PHX
            12.5 13 5.3 2.7 4.82 2.45
            LAL
            1.5 2.45 2.23
            BOS
            425 5.93 25.2
            WAS 1200 1.08 12.96
            BKN -270 9.21 3.41
            NYK -160 9.26 5.79
            LAL
            105 7.35 7.72
            EDIT: Updated PHX ATS bet to account for news that Westbrook is supposedly playing tonight. Also, this makes the OKC ML playable, so adding the following play for about half a unit:

            Team Line Bet To Win
            OKC
            -1400 7.87 0.56
            Today:
            ATS: 3-1-0, bet 28.03, net -3.12
            ML: 2-4, bet 40.7, net -17.2
            Overall 5-5-0, bet 68.73, net -20.32

            YTD:
            ATS: 4-6-0, bet 72.14, net -17.16, -23.8%
            ML: 5-8, bet 161.26, net 10.41, +6.5%
            Overall: 9-14-0, bet 233.4, net -6.75, -2.9%
            Comment
            • pwangsta
              SBR Rookie
              • 09-01-13
              • 8

              #7
              11/4 Picks

              Team Line Bet To Win
              MIN 1.5 4.11 3.74
              PHI 7 8.61 7.83
              BOS 12 6.01 5.46
              MIN 103 8.04 8.28
              PHI 240 2.05 4.92
              LAC -210 3.84 1.83
              Comment
              • pwangsta
                SBR Rookie
                • 09-01-13
                • 8

                #8
                Originally posted by pwangsta
                Team Line Bet To Win
                MIN
                1.5
                4.11 3.74
                PHI
                7 8.61 7.83
                BOS
                12 6.01 5.46
                MIN
                103 8.04 8.28
                PHI
                240 2.05 4.92
                LAC
                -210 3.84 1.83
                Yesterday:
                ATS: 2-1, bet 18.73, net 0.59
                ML: 1-2, bet 13.93, net -8.26
                Overall: 3-3, bet 32.66, net 7.67

                YTD:
                ATS: 6-7-0, bet 90.87, net -16.57, -18.2%
                ML: 6-10, bet 175.19, net 2.15, +1.2%
                Overall: 12-17-0, bet 266.06, net -14.42, -5.4%
                Comment
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