What is the average difference between a live line and pure math line?

[bjb7223]

NBA game's total starts at at 186


The two teams put up 20 points in the first 5 minutes. What is the line now at the 5 minute mark. From a pure math standpoint this is (48/5)*20= 196. I'm guessing it stays at 186.


What I need is a site with archived live lines. Help me out here.

[sando]

NBA game's total starts at at 186


The two teams put up 20 points in the first 5 minutes. What is the line now at the 5 minute mark. From a pure math standpoint this is (48/5)*20= 196. I'm guessing it stays at 186.


What I need is a site with archived live lines. Help me out here.

From my perspective pre-game lines are all about the math (i.e stats) with some situational awareness (like a team on a long road trip rolling into Denver for example), and of course team match ups (Houston squaring off against Phoenix or Denver, or perhaps Indiana against Chicago, etc) - But playing live lines is all about being in the moment. You have to be watching the game and hence reading the tempo - actually focusing on the tempo instead of the general game. Stats and pre-game analysis become far less important after tip-off, when you have a wealth of immediate info at your disposal (assuming you know how to interpret it). When trading live on totals, the only stats I care about are current fg% 3pt% ft% and turnovers, etc. Otherwise it all come downs to your instincts (with a databank of hundreds/thousands of past games and hence some similar situations to relate back to in your mind). Usually the signs are there if 1 team (or both) are playing at a tempo that they can not or will not maintain for 48 mins, or conversely if the tempo is solid but shots just aren't falling, or an unusally high number of turnovers early or missed ft's early in a game, etc, then you don't need the math or per. stats to tell you that a live over line is worth considering.

[bjb7223]

From my perspective pre-game lines are all about the math (i.e stats) with some situational awareness (like a team on a long road trip rolling into Denver for example), and of course team match ups (Houston squaring off against Phoenix or Denver, or perhaps Indiana against Chicago, etc) - But playing live lines is all about being in the moment. You have to be watching the game and hence reading the tempo - actually focusing on the tempo instead of the general game. Stats and pre-game analysis become far less important after tip-off, when you have a wealth of immediate info at your disposal (assuming you know how to interpret it). When trading live on totals, the only stats I care about are current fg% 3pt% ft% and turnovers, etc. Otherwise it all come downs to your instincts (with a databank of hundreds/thousands of past games and hence some similar situations to relate back to in your mind). Usually the signs are there if 1 team (or both) are playing at a tempo that they can not or will not maintain for 48 mins, or conversely if the tempo is solid but shots just aren't falling, or an unusally high number of turnovers early or missed ft's early in a game, etc, then you don't need the math or per. stats to tell you that a live over line is worth considering.

Thank you Sando. You're right target tempo situations. How many teams in this league walk the ball up the court? Memphis?

[DoYouNotGetIT]

NBA game's total starts at at 186


The two teams put up 20 points in the first 5 minutes. What is the line now at the 5 minute mark. From a pure math standpoint this is (48/5)*20= 196. I'm guessing it stays at 186.


What I need is a site with archived live lines. Help me out here.

Pre-game lines are calculated with human factors taken into account (betting, arena, team, injuries, and so forth) and with in-game betting it is all done by computer (math). In-game betting is done with math, because a human cannot calculate a total fast enough and know what the in-game total has to be so the Sportsbooks don't lose their shirt with betters hedging.

[underal]

NBA game's total starts at at 186


The two teams put up 20 points in the first 5 minutes. What is the line now at the 5 minute mark. From a pure math standpoint this is (48/5)*20= 196. I'm guessing it stays at 186.


What I need is a site with archived live lines. Help me out here.

First you need help with math. 48/5x20=192. if you bet totals you should know that 4 pts per minuite gives 192.