Sun, Feb 8 Plays

50lipa · 02-08-09, 08:04 PM

Bet you're extra happy you crossed the Knickerbockers off.

50lipa · 02-08-09, 11:01 PM

Obviously just after i posted this Brandon Roy scored to keep the win home.

curious · 02-09-09, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by 50lipa

Bet you're extra happy you crossed the Knickerbockers off.

Yes

curious · 02-09-09, 12:41 AM

16-11

<sigh> a lot of work for 3 units

shoebox · 02-09-09, 12:47 AM

Peachdog is calling you out in the ncaa thread just thought you should know, the MF is crazy

Razz_Donkey · 02-09-09, 12:47 AM

A winning day is a winning day. Lots of respect for the work you put in Curious. Keep it up and good luck this week.

curious · 02-09-09, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by shoebox

Peachdog is calling you out in the ncaa thread just thought you should know, the MF is crazy

I just ignore idiots like that.

curious · 02-09-09, 02:01 AM

Originally posted by shoebox

Peachdog is calling you out in the ncaa thread just thought you should know, the MF is crazy

He claims that he tracked my email and knows that my proxy is used by some other idiot. I never emailed that asshole. I fixed him though. I offered to meet him in person so he can talk shit to me to my face. Guess what his answer will be.

I have never emailed that idiot. My email address is in at least 25 posts on here, dating back to two years ago. I have had that email address forever. I've been on this forum for two years and EVERYONE knows me. And this idiot has been on here for what, two weeks? And he is going to talk shit about me? ****ing asshole, I'll kick that mother fukker's ass.

I guarantee you that mother ****er is 12. I have written to the mods asking them why they are tolerating that idiot filling up the forums with his bullshit.

OC · 02-09-09, 06:23 AM

Curious ... 1/2 in jest, if I send you 10K, can u send me daily updates and turn it into 50K+ in a year? Absolutely inrigued by your plays as I like to dabble in more than a few plays a day. Keep up the good work. Enjoy your posts and your attitude.

G's pks · 02-09-09, 09:57 AM

Originally posted by shoebox

Peachdog is calling you out in the ncaa thread just thought you should know, the MF is crazy

The difference between Peachdog and Curious?

Peachdog ==== A guy who brags and loses more then he says.

Curious === A guy who honestly predicts sports.

Peachdog just keep your mouth shut and cut the alert, alert giant bolded losing posts to yourself!

curious · 02-09-09, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by OC

Curious ... 1/2 in jest, if I send you 10K, can u send me daily updates and turn it into 50K+ in a year? Absolutely inrigued by your plays as I like to dabble in more than a few plays a day. Keep up the good work. Enjoy your posts and your attitude.

Certainly. My first three months in sports betting I turned $2,000 into $35,000.

curious · 02-09-09, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by G's pks

The difference between Peachdog and Curious?

Peachdog ==== A guy who brags and loses more then he says.

Curious === A guy who honestly predicts sports.

Peachdog just keep your mouth shut and cut the alert, alert giant bolded losing posts to yourself!

There are some other differences between PeachFuzz and Curious.
PeachFuzz age = 12
Curious age = 51

PeachFuzz residence = mother's basement
Curious residence = house on lake that Curious owns

PeachFuzz experience as relates to sports betting = playing video games, taking shit on forums
Curious experience = pattern theory expert, statistician

shoebox · 02-09-09, 11:11 AM

Curious I like your style, as I have just been reading your posts for a few days. Lay me out some of your strategies if you would.

Thanks

BillAccpetor · 02-09-09, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by curious

There are some other differences between PeachFuzz and Curious.
PeachFuzz age = 12
Curious age = 51

PeachFuzz residence = mother's basement
Curious residence = house on lake that Curious owns

PeachFuzz experience as relates to sports betting = playing video games, taking shit on forums
Curious experience = pattern theory expert, statistician

Great...

curious · 02-09-09, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Curious I like your style, as I have just been reading your posts for a few days. Lay me out some of your strategies if you would.

Thanks

Only play money lines for favs and play a combination of money line and spread for dogs. X on the money line and 2X on the spread. The spread hedges the money line. Do NOT play a dog unless you think they can win the game, the real play is the money line the spread is a hedge.

NCAAB - try to find mismatches between what the line should be and what the line actually is. Too many games to cap, linesmakers cannot be 100% accurate on all of them. the public "perception" influences the line because the lines makers know there will be huge action on popular teams. SOOOO, there is often a lag between reality and perception and the line is biased.

Maryland was a huge dog several times this year. They won those games straight up. For some reason the public does not perceive Maryland to be a good team.

Anyway, you use the pythag number and the log5 formula to figure out what the line should be, this is the value line. Then you compare that to what the line actually is and if there is a big enough difference in your favor then that is a play. www.kenpom.com to get the pythag and use google to look up log5. I use pythag adjusted for strength of schedule and I do NOT adjust for home court advantage, injuries, etc. I only look at the raw numbers.

NBA - the pythag does not work. Any NBA team can beat any other NBA team any game. So, I use who's hot / who's cold. I look at the last N games using ATS for the days when the team was a dog and SU for days when the team was a fav. I look for trends and places where the trend reversed. A team will be in one of three categories: hot, cold, lukewarm. Hot means that they are on a streak of either N-0 since their last loss, or >60% going back to the last time they had a succession of losses. How far I go back is subjective. If a team is 2-0 and before that they were 0-5, I call them hot and use 2-0. Even though you can make a case that the team is 2-5. Another team might be 2-5 and I call them cold because there is no streak and the overall trend is 2-5. So, say a team did this: LWLLWLL, they are cold and 2-5. Another team that did this WWLLLLL is hot and 2-0. Another team I might go back 13 games because there is no streak but the overall trend is hot. Say a team that is 9-4 with something like WLWWLWWWLWWWL. Another team might be 9-4 but I call them cold because they did this: LLLLWWWWWWWWW. The trend was hot, but now is definitely cold.

I want to find a hot team playing a cold team. Two hot teams or two cold teams I pass on them. Lukewarm teams I might make a small play if they are playing a cold team and the situation is right, but I usually pass on lukewarm teams. I want a red hot team playing a blue cold team.

I found you cannot use the ATS given by statfox, covers, etc, because I play favs on the moneyline and dogs + points. So, I could care less what a fav does ATS. I only care what they do SU. Dogs, I care what they do both ATS And SU because I also play dogs on the money line with the spread play hedging the money line play.

So, when I look at a teams record I look at ATS if they were a dog that day and SU if they were a fav that day. I also look at how many points they were given as a dog.

So, take a team like Minnesota - when they get > 10 points they are pretty much a sure win ATS. When they get <= 4 points they are not too good. OKC I almost always take if they are getting > 9 points, but rarely take if they are getting < 5 points.

I don't look at injuries, back to back, road/home, day of week of any of that other nonsense. Although I did lose a few games because a team traveled from Phoenix to Orlando to Portland in 3 days. I forget who that was. I may start looking at extremes like that. Perhaps I will run some data mining on number of miles traveled over the previous N days and see if that has any bearing.

For halftime plays in NCAAB I look for two situations. A favorite which is even or close to even at the half and the 2H money line is not too terribly expensive. And, a dog that is getting the same number of points for the 2H that they got for the game.

shoebox · 02-09-09, 04:21 PM

Thanks sir, what sports do you find more profitable?
What % of your bank is a unit play?

Karayilan9 · 02-09-09, 04:51 PM

Curious
I don't look at injuries, back to back, road/home, day of week of any of that other nonsense.

Why not Curious?
For example, some teams are not the same team without a few stars being injured. Some teams are bad on the road, other teams have more depth etc etc
I just was wondering why you think its nonsense?

curious · 02-09-09, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Why not Curious?
For example, some teams are not the same team without a few stars being injured. Some teams are bad on the road, other teams have more depth etc etc
I just was wondering why you think its nonsense?

1. I play 20, 30, 40, 50 plays a day, I don't have time to look at all this crap.
2. The books know all this nonsense better than I do when they set the line.
3. Once it a while it matters but usually not.
4. Anytime I did pay attention to any of this nonsense and went against my initial instinct the play lost, had I just followed my math models the play would have won.

curious · 02-09-09, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Thanks sir, what sports do you find more profitable?
What % of your bank is a unit play?

I cannot cap the NFL, or NHL worth a damm. I LOVE NCAAF and CFL. I freaking kill NCAAB, NBA, and MLB. > 70% in all three. I play big dogs on the money line in NCAAF. Last two years in CFL I was undefeated.

A unit for me is a very small % of bank. Takes 100 units to get up to .5% of bank. You can do the math. I have a good size bank roll and I can add to it anytime I want to. And no I am not telling anyone what size my bank is or how much $ per unit is.

I am a firm believer that your max bet should be .5% or 1% of bank. Once in a while if you find that miracle play you can go to 2,3,4, or 5% of bank. Not more than 1 or 2 times a month. I had a miracle play on the super bowl. 1st Quarter UNDER 9 for 200 units. That my biggest play this year.

Most people don't have a big enough bank roll to play at such a low risk of ruin, but I am in this to make money, not for the "action". If I did not KNOW that I can make money at this I would not do it. This is not gambling for me it is more like investing.

shoebox · 02-09-09, 06:40 PM

Thanks Curious your one of the few on here that no what there doing. I hear ya on the bank roll, I myself am very conservative as well. Learned my lesson a long long time ago.

NFL is the hardest by far, I am gonna for sure see how you play the mlb.