Does anyone here do this? The idea being that you bet the over on a game in the morning, check during the day to see if the line goes up by a few points and then bet the under, hoping that you will win both bets if the score falls in the middle of the two bets (or vice-versa.) Thank you.
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I rarely do it. The math has to work out. I only do it if the middle is 3 or larger. The big question is, "Can you hit the middle better than 1 out of 20 times?" If you can, it is worth it to beat the juice. Just do the math.Comment -
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If the line moves back down, technically both bets could be considered +EV. You bet over 175, it moves to 180, you bet under 180, it closes at 177. Then both the over 175 and under 180 are +EV bets beating the closing line. If you bet the under 180 though and it stays at 180, then you are talking a -EV bet on the second bet and losing money long term, where it would be more profitable to just let the first bet ride. I almost think long term that if you are making a second bet the other way after the line movement, you will win less long term. If you made a bet and the line happened to move, why not stick with it and pat yourself on the back for getting a good line. I have a general rule of thumb not to go for middles or buy out, unless I am watching the game and don't like how my pick is playing out. Then I will bet the other way at halftime as a way of cancelling my bet.Comment -
bjb you're 1 of the best posters on the site. That smiley is literally the only correct reply to this question lmao This question can be translated to "Should I give all my money to Vegas?"
I typed out a response to the question but I deleted it cause there are just way too many holes. The ONLY time this MIGHT work is if you live bet cause the lines can swing a lot when the game is going on.Comment -
you guys have no clue on how often a game falls within the window without looking back at years of data. you are just speculating that it doesn't hit at a high enough rate to be profitable. What if it was only situations where you got the over at -101, the under at -101, and there was 3 points of line movement. Then it only needs to fall in the window > 1% of the time to be profitable. maybe someone with a database with lines could chime in and tell how often it hits. still don't think it's a good strategy, but still not the worst discussion. there is a lot more nonsense on sbrforum, just wait til the nba season starts with lock threads and fixing conspiracies.Comment -
Ignore the two posters here that say its a losing bet, or only a 2% chance of winning. This type of betting is a books biggest fear.
Middeling, also known as Arbitrage betting is without question the most profitable form of sports betting there is. The problem with it is that most books don't allow it, or they will only allow it for recreational betters . If you are Arbitrage betting, the books will determine if you are a professional or a recreational. They will determine this not by your profit / lose, but by your discipline to making +EV bets. Once they spot that you are a professional, they will prevent you from doing it, conversely, they will continue to allow you to attempt middles if you are deemed recreational. Check the rules of your book. Its easiest to do it on betting exchanges as the 'house' has no interest in the outcome and some books do allow it freely like pinnacle.
The rule of thumb for arbitrage betting is you make the bet at a 0% edge or better. This differs from normal bets where you need at least a 1% edge. Some even advocate a -1% edge is still worth attempting the middle.
A note here, the vast majority of Sports betters have the slightest idea as to how to calculate their edge making this a losing bet. But as I said before, if you're savvy, enough, you can find these bets daily and do very well.
The easiest way to go is to have accounts at multiple books, and preferably in different regions and exploit books with slow moving lines. This will also help disguise the fact that you are indeed arbitrage betting.
One example is if you live in Chicago, recreational betters will probably be more inclined to bet the Bulls and a local bookie may adjust the line accordingly as all his business is local. International books may be slow to move the line because its an American sport or post an unbiased line opening up an opportunity for you to exploit using the two books.
But this is a long term proposition, and takes copious amounts of time and effort to find these bets. But if successful, you can essentially enjoy risk free profit. This is what makes it attractive and feared at the same time.Comment -
thanks for chiming in bjb, thought you were pulling numbers out of your ass and when you said "like 2%" earlier. 2% would still be profitable though if you got -101 or +100sComment -
I do understand that this is a NBA thread, but I wasn't necessarily referring to NBA. American Sports are without question the hardest to bet on. The lines are way to sharp. Honestly, I don't know why anyone would want to bet NBA or NFL etc. when there are literally thousands of other softer lines in other sports to choose from.
Mysterio, If you want to learn about arbitrage betting, do a simple internet search. There is plenty of information on it.
I am not an arbitrage better. I am a poker player and just don't have that kind of time, as its takes hours scanning books, information and line movements. But, Ive been gambling longer than 99% of this forum has been alive and I can assure you arbitrage betting is very real.
Tennis is a good one for arbitrage as lines can swing wildly, especially in the challengers. Might want to start there.Comment
