John Morrison 2013-14 NBA Thread

**Kankerganker** · 10-28-13, 05:16 PM

Hey Wallco, thanks for the good work! Read a lot about the systems during offseason and im looking forward to tail in NBA, already tailing in hockey

Just want to make sure i got this right: When you play the chase 110 system you play a team that has lost 3x in a row ATS&SU to win over a 4 game chase, and the JM 1-7-5 Fades a team whenever they start a 3 game road trip. correct?

What do you think of using filters for the chase 110? Having big money on the Bobcats or magic never feels good, and especially this season with teams like Philly and the Suns tanking hard for wiggins, i could easily see them losing a series each

**J.M. Disciple** · 10-28-13, 05:35 PM

for chase110 the system will never feel good hence your following a team that has lost 3Su and 3ATS. Most likely its an under .500 team. If you only play favorites though the system does much worse ATS. Its these losing streaks that actually create the system.

As for BoBcats and Magic for the JM system you can remove the bottom 1-3 teams that have the worse ATS record on the road or just worse road record in general. There are some that applied this filter with chase110 removing teams who suck ATS and they showed a profit with chase110 last year.

I am sure wallco will note, system was not backtested with filters and will invite you to test it yourself with filters and let us all know. But that is likely not going to happen. No one forces anyone to bet here, so if you do not like magic or bocats than do not play them on that series.

We are following a road team for 3 straight games, not fading them.

**Kankerganker** · 10-28-13, 05:53 PM

Thank you for clearing that up.

Ive read a lot of your posts on the different subforums here, and really like your idea of playing many different systems for small, steady profits from each, making downswings in 1 system way more manageable, and with a BR of ~150-200 units, i should be able to handle a few losses. Currently i have my eyes on NBA, NHL and NFL, JM/chase 110 and NFL halftime plays, Any other systems you'd recommend?

**J.M. Disciple** · 10-28-13, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by Kankerganker

Thank you for clearing that up.

Ive read a lot of your posts on the different subforums here, and really like your idea of playing many different systems for small, steady profits from each, making downswings in 1 system way more manageable, and with a BR of ~150-200 units, i should be able to handle a few losses. Currently i have my eyes on NBA, NHL and NFL, JM/chase 110 and NFL halftime plays, Any other systems you'd recommend?

I am following crusher as well. Hes on quite a bit of a heater. Ive only had one losing day past two weeks I recall. Pending Vancouver tonight ill be just over 57 units, 58 if they win. I did hit a couple small parlays... I would estimate parlays amount to 15-20 units of profit. Rest has been from systems. I am just flat betting everything to win 1 unit and if there is a losing day I add it to labby lines. I keep them as fresh lines until I have a losing day. With systems like Wallco Gold hitting 23-3 (88%) this season there has not been many losing days where I need to increase my wagers.

I missed out on quite a few wins as well avoiding teams that are below .500. Like Washington today I did not play because of their record. I am not sure if I should keep doing this, but i have plenty of action still, so doesn't hurt I guess.

**Wallco99** · 10-29-13, 07:18 AM

Play Ball!!!!

**mcrisp** · 10-29-13, 10:35 AM

lets get the money flowing!

**samcro1** · 10-29-13, 11:16 AM

Hi, I'm new here, I have a question. I just read the JM v3 PDF file, and most of your examples mentioned buying 3 points. Do we really need to buy the 3 points in order to make the system work? Or is it alright if we just play the line?

**Wallco99** · 10-29-13, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by samcro1

Hi, I'm new here, I have a question. I just read the JM v3 PDF file, and most of your examples mentioned buying 3 points. Do we really need to buy the 3 points in order to make the system work? Or is it alright if we just play the line?

I play the line, not buying points, and betting series 1-7-5 method. This has not been thoroughly backtested, but it works for me. Description of 1-7-5 and the other four bet strategies can be found in last year's JM NBA thread in many posts.

**DustyDiamond** · 10-29-13, 06:27 PM

Checking in

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 10-29-13, 06:39 PM

Originally posted by samcro1

Hi, I'm new here, I have a question. I just read the JM v3 PDF file, and most of your examples mentioned buying 3 points. Do we really need to buy the 3 points in order to make the system work? Or is it alright if we just play the line?

Go to Wallco's post 100 for link...start at the beginning and go to about post 250 or so, all the info is there. There's a lot of BS you can skip over but that's where the bulk of the info is.

**jonny2k4** · 10-29-13, 08:28 PM

Will the plays be posted? I saw the schedule, but does the jm get updated every day?

**Wallco99** · 10-29-13, 10:37 PM

Originally posted by jonny2k4

Will the plays be posted? I saw the schedule, but does the jm get updated every day?

If we have a volunteer. I will be posting Chase 110.

**cheyou** · 10-30-13, 12:20 PM

so,is there any volunteer?

**ok15533** · 10-30-13, 12:34 PM

hey guyz. I am not sure if any one asked this question before but if anyone ass and i missed the reply. I apologize for it. My question is what was the record of JM system for last/past two seasons. season 2012 AND season 2013

**ok15533** · 10-30-13, 01:07 PM

I went back to read the thread last year. and found out this records. we all are aware that it was a short season. and I also picked up some comments that it was a horrible season. if the records below are correct.

JM Traditional

4/3/2013

V1

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 41-3-2
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 43-3
Current series pending: 0

V2

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 29-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 29-4
Current series pending: 0

V3

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 63-5-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 69-3
Current series pending: 5 (Dallas B Bet)

1. Houston Rockets A Bet -3.5 @ Sacramento Kings
Houston Rockets A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Sacramento Kings

2. Memphis Grizzlies A Bet -4 @ Portland Trailblazers
Memphis Grizzlies A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Portland Trailblazers

3. New Orleans Hornets A Bet +7 @ Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Hornets A Bet (if buying 3 points) +10 @ Golden State Warriors

4. Philadelphia 76ers A Bet -5 @ Charlotte Bobcats
Philadelphia 76ers A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Charlotte Bobcats

I will think it was profitable since. there are more series win than loss. if any one can explain . why it was a terrible season. this may guide us to a better decision this year.

from what I am thinking if you wage to make 500 in each series and one series went 42 - 3 that should bue 39 * 500 for the season. please correct me here.

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by ok15533

hey guyz. I am not sure if any one asked this question before but if anyone ass and i missed the reply. I apologize for it. My question is what was the record of JM system for last/past two seasons. season 2012 AND season 2013

^^^^

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by ok15533

I went back to read the thread last year. and found out this records. we all are aware that it was a short season. and I also picked up some comments that it was a horrible season. if the records below are correct.

JM Traditional

4/3/2013

V1

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 41-3-2
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 43-3
Current series pending: 0

V2

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 29-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 29-4
Current series pending: 0

V3

Current chase record W/OUT buying points: 63-5-4
Current chase record WITH buying 3 points: 69-3
Current series pending: 5 (Dallas B Bet)

1. Houston Rockets A Bet -3.5 @ Sacramento Kings
Houston Rockets A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Sacramento Kings

2. Memphis Grizzlies A Bet -4 @ Portland Trailblazers
Memphis Grizzlies A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Portland Trailblazers

3. New Orleans Hornets A Bet +7 @ Golden State Warriors
New Orleans Hornets A Bet (if buying 3 points) +10 @ Golden State Warriors

4. Philadelphia 76ers A Bet -5 @ Charlotte Bobcats
Philadelphia 76ers A Bet (since > -3 play ML) @ Charlotte Bobcats

I will think it was profitable since. there are more series win than loss. if any one can explain . why it was a terrible season. this may guide us to a better decision this year.

from what I am thinking if you wage to make 500 in each series and one series went 42 - 3 that should bue 39 * 500 for the season. please correct me here.

It would be 39 * 500 = 19500. Now subtract the three losses, playing it the way JM says to and buy 3 points, which on average is -180 odds per game, and your losses for the three series would be 3 * (-10,476) = -31,428. Playing to win 500 on each series would have netted you (-11920). I would concur, a terrible season. A single three game chase loss, looking to win 500 = (-10476)

**HenryTheNoodle** · 10-30-13, 02:22 PM

ok, your math is wrong, since it's a chase the series loss is much more than one unit.

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 02:26 PM

And using the records you listed below (combined 141-10), You would have netted +$70,500 for the wins and (-$104,760) for the losses with buying the points. Total loss = (-$34,260).

Playing this system the way I described earlier, 1-7-5, netted me a +58 units. Had my unit size been 500 like you described, I would have profited $29,000

(Note: I only played 1-7-5 from second week of December til the end. Prior to that, I was just playing 7/5)

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by HenryTheNoodle

ok, your math is wrong, since it's a chase the series loss is much more than one unit.

How am I wrong? I showed the math and it is much more than one unit as you can see.

**HenryTheNoodle** · 10-30-13, 02:30 PM

Was replying to ok15533, sorry. Should have been more clear.

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by HenryTheNoodle

Was replying to ok15533, sorry. Should have been more clear.

Gotcha!

**bonhammer** · 10-30-13, 03:21 PM

wallco or thelimit,
i was thinking about the 7/5 system and this could also be applied to the 1/7/5 system. that you could calculate the exact ratio the bets should be to each other based on the win percentage to optimize ROI. since i dont have the full 8 year backtest. could one of you post the longrun B and C game win percentage?
-bonhammer

**ok15533** · 10-30-13, 03:40 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

And using the records you listed below (combined 141-10), You would have netted +$70,500 for the wins and (-$104,760) for the losses with buying the points. Total loss = (-$34,260).

Playing this system the way I described earlier, 1-7-5, netted me a +58 units. Had my unit size been 500 like you described, I would have profited $29,000

(Note: I only played 1-7-5 from second week of December til the end. Prior to that, I was just playing 7/5)

It's very misleading how john praises this record . Well thank you to everyone who helped me answer this question. and also to wallco99 playing your 1. 7 . 5 plan. Did you buy points on that ?

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by ok15533

It's very misleading how john praises this record . Well thank you to everyone who helped me answer this question. and also to wallco99 playing your 1. 7 . 5 plan. Did you buy points on that ?

Watch what you say about the Messiah, John Morrison. Chili Dog takes JM criticism personally.

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by ok15533

It's very misleading how john praises this record . Well thank you to everyone who helped me answer this question. and also to wallco99 playing your 1. 7 . 5 plan. Did you buy points on that ?

No, that would get waaaay too expensive .

**Wallco99** · 10-30-13, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by bonhammer

wallco or thelimit,
i was thinking about the 7/5 system and this could also be applied to the 1/7/5 system. that you could calculate the exact ratio the bets should be to each other based on the win percentage to optimize ROI. since i dont have the full 8 year backtest. could one of you post the longrun B and C game win percentage?
-bonhammer

That can definely be found in last years thread, just not sure where, but I know it's there.

**ok15533** · 10-30-13, 03:56 PM

I think 1.7.5 make sense here. The juice on buying points eats up bank roll big .

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 10-30-13, 06:51 PM

I can't post, I get off work at 7pm

**Juve08** · 10-30-13, 06:52 PM

Quick question. I was reading the rules for the system plays. Now, when we skip a series because the team has the worst or best record in the road, do we use the record for that specific team from previous seasons?

**Wallco99** · 10-31-13, 09:24 AM

Originally posted by ok15533

I think 1.7.5 make sense here. The juice on buying points eats up bank roll big .

I like 1-7-5. But like I said, it's not for everyone.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 10-31-13, 09:47 AM

next weeks plays:

1	San Antonio	v3	11/1	LA Lakers	11/2	Portland	11/5	Denver
2	Houston	v3	11/2	Utah	11/4	LA Clippers	11/5	Portland
3	Phoenix	v3	11/3	Oklahoma City	11/5	New Orleans	11/6	San Antonio
4	Atlanta	v1	11/3	LA Lakers	11/5	Sacramento	11/7	Denver
5	Golden State	v3	11/4	Philadelphia	11/6	Minnesota	11/8	San Antonio
6	Utah	v1	11/5	Brooklyn	11/6	Boston	11/8	Chicago
7	L.A. Lakers	v3	11/5	Dallas	11/7	Houston	11/8	New Orleans
8	L.A. Clippers	v2	11/6	Orlando	11/7	Miami	11/9	Houston
9	Dallas	v3	11/6	Oklahoma City	11/8	Minnesota	11/9	Milwaukee

Full schedule can be downloaded on Post #78

I can do this, but I don't have time or patience to keep track of wins and losses. Everyone should be able to see which team lost and to play the B or C game.

For the uninitiated, left to right, the columns are are:
Play number, Team we are betting on, Version number, Date of A bet, Team we are betting against on A bet....for B and C

**Wallco99** · 10-31-13, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by BuckeyeKaptn

next weeks plays:

Full schedule can be downloaded on Post #78

I can do this, but I don't have time or patience to keep track of wins and losses. Everyone should be able to see which team lost and to play the B or C game.

For the uninitiated, left to right, the columns are are:
Play number, Team we are betting on, Version number, Date of A bet, Team we are betting against on A bet....for B and C

I agree, posting isn't really necessary. But hopefully someone will take the reigns because you know that someone will ask EVERY DAY what the plays are even though I already posted the schedule for the entire season. They also don't want to spend time keeping their own records, which in my opinion is completely foolish. Everyone should have their own personal spreadsheets for chase system plays with amounts to wager and dates, and not have to rely one bit on a stranger typing words in a forum to know what to play, especially since the plays are already posted. But clicking back a few pages to find the schedule, or better yet, saving it on your desktop, is way too much work for some when they can just pop on here and say, "Yo fellas, any plays today?", usually without the courtesy of proper grammar and punctuation.

**BuckeyeKaptn** · 10-31-13, 10:38 AM

Thanx to whoever started the 7/5 system. It just occurred to me to use that on a MLB system I'm backtesting, actually 1/5/3...but that was just numbers I plugged in, but anyway that concept made it STRONG. Now just gotta get the backtests going.

**Wallco99** · 10-31-13, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by BuckeyeKaptn

Thanx to whoever started the 7/5 system. It just occurred to me to use that on a MLB system I'm backtesting, actually 1/5/3...but that was just numbers I plugged in, but anyway that concept made it STRONG. Now just gotta get the backtests going.

thelimit and I began that, I tried applying it to MLB but some of the lines got pretty ugly, unless you are backtesting all +money bets.