Mon, Feb 2 Plays

NBA Hero · 02-02-09, 12:09 PM

well if standing of both eams, i take into consideration the home court advantage. injuries doesnt count on those teams you mentioned. but your a pro, you can manage

johnnymapalo · 02-02-09, 01:30 PM

yea, like he said above. If 2 sorry teams are playing, your best bet is to play the one with home court advantage. I may take the Wizards here but it would be a small play..

curious · 02-02-09, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by johnnymapalo

yea, like he said above. If 2 sorry teams are playing, your best bet is to play the one with home court advantage. I may take the Wizards here but it would be a small play..

I usually just pass on games like that unless one team is getting a boatload of points.

johnnymapalo · 02-02-09, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by curious

I usually just pass on games like that unless one team is getting a boatload of points.

One team is getting a boat load of points, Memphis. That team needs at least +15 to cover. +5 is waay too small for them to cover. Have you seen that team play lately..

sprasad03 · 02-02-09, 01:40 PM

curious i feel your judgment is rly good, so i have a question outside of these games. I have created a system its 13-6 ATS, and 20-5 SU for the NBA, every game is a play for SU and most are for ATS. Different method than most but i dont bet on all games. Here is the situation if i want to use my SU system it tends to go on favs like 60% or a lil more, but hte problem is the ML on favs are crazy. Say i had a bankroll of 200, how could i bet with these horrible ML lines and make the best profit? i been doin cheap parlays but i feel i will get screwed in the end

curious · 02-02-09, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by sprasad03

curious i feel your judgment is rly good, so i have a question outside of these games. I have created a system its 13-6 ATS, and 20-5 SU for the NBA, every game is a play for SU and most are for ATS. Different method than most but i dont bet on all games. Here is the situation if i want to use my SU system it tends to go on favs like 60% or a lil more, but hte problem is the ML on favs are crazy. Say i had a bankroll of 200, how could i bet with these horrible ML lines and make the best profit? i been doin cheap parlays but i feel i will get screwed in the end

I don't know enough about the win/loss % at various spreads to answer the question.

In NCAAB, I play big favs on the money line. I do this because I know that the win/loss % of these plays is > 90%.

20-5 doesn't tell me enough to know if the big money line favs are a good value for your system. The 5 losses, what was the money line?

My philosophy is that you find the best values on the money line when the spread is > 3 points. But, I play a lot of plays so I am going for probabilities across a large number of plays.

Parlays are a -EV play, so I only use them for very large money lines.

What you could do is limit the money line plays to some number. Say nothing over -600. I just picked that number at random, you would have to find the real number.

25 games is too few to establish anything. I would need to know what your system is and see back test results over a couple of years.

curious · 02-02-09, 01:52 PM

Originally posted by johnnymapalo

One team is getting a boat load of points, Memphis. That team needs at least +15 to cover. +5 is waay too small for them to cover. Have you seen that team play lately..

5 is not a boatload. I wouldn't touch Memphis with a thousand foot pole.

G's pks · 02-02-09, 01:54 PM

Originally posted by johnnymapalo

One team is getting a boat load of points, Memphis. That team needs at least +15 to cover. +5 is waay too small for them to cover. Have you seen that team play lately..

Are they as ~~good~~ bad as the Clippers?

Close one here...

curious · 02-02-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

Are they as ~~good~~ bad as the Clippers?

Close one here...

There is no way to choose one of these teams. Miami has no business giving up 9 points to anybody and the clippers are a shambles.

Memphis is bad but they are only getting 5 points, so they aren't a play. Washington should not be giving up points to anyone so they are not a play either.

So, for both of these I have to pass.

johnnymapalo · 02-02-09, 02:11 PM

Originally posted by curious

There is no way to choose one of these teams. Miami has no business giving up 9 points to anybody and the clippers are a shambles.

Memphis is bad but they are only getting 5 points, so they aren't a play. Washington should not be giving up points to anyone so they are not a play either.

So, for both of these I have to pass.

You know I played the Clippers +11 (-110) last night for $11.00 to win $10.00. I am now wondering about the intelligence of that pick. Clippers and Memphis have been getting blown out of the waters lately. Miami, believe it or not have been beating teams by alot of points lately. They suprised me when they blew out Atlanta. They may blow the cover off the Clippers. I think I will go with Miami ml..

G's pks · 02-02-09, 03:04 PM

Well sorry to keep thinking about the clippers but I know the Griz... is more the subject... Last week I saw the Bulls dismantle a weak clipper team with only 8 dressed. It seems Camby and Davis were not interested in playing at all! I had the bulls...but did see when they want to especially B. Davis that the clips can score and be a game changer...when he wants too be...no defense at all and a very weak bench... I think Camby is overrated and deserves to be with the clippers..

Shark79 · 02-02-09, 04:16 PM

Curious,

Why the ML on SA and not the pts?

Im with you on Sacramento ....

seanjohn007 · 02-02-09, 05:02 PM

you could do what i did. parlayed san antonio, miami, and orlando money lines for +money. i cant see miami losing straight up to a terrible clippers team. and you obviously have the other two moneylines so you think they have a pretty god chance of winning straight up.

seanjonh007

dennisback · 02-02-09, 05:24 PM

hey curious, i just found out that Phoenix has lost their last 6 first qtrs @ home against following teams: hawks, mavs, pacers, twolves, bulls and spurs
while the kings won their 1q on road vs boston, CLE and TOR by 2pts each! And you know those are the best 1Q teams in the League
what you think about that?

anthmac28 · 02-02-09, 05:41 PM

Orlando -7 half
Memphis +4 half
Spurs/Warriors under 213

my little parlay for the night. Pretty confident...

curious · 02-02-09, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by Shark79

Curious,

Why the ML on SA and not the pts?

Im with you on Sacramento ....

favs are always money line, dogs are always + points.

Shark79 · 02-02-09, 06:28 PM

Thanks man !! Good Luck on ur plays bud !

curious · 02-02-09, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by dennisback

hey curious, i just found out that Phoenix has lost their last 6 first qtrs @ home against following teams: hawks, mavs, pacers, twolves, bulls and spurs
while the kings won their 1q on road vs boston, CLE and TOR by 2pts each! And you know those are the best 1Q teams in the League
what you think about that?

PHoenix 1Q win/loss % = 52%
Sacramento 1Q win/loss % = 41%

That is the stat I am going with. Feel free to take Sac 1Q instead of Phoenix.

I know that Sac 1Q win/loss % used to be a lot lower than 41% so maybe they are on a streak.

I have not built last X number of games streaks into the Quarters model, I just use a simple season win/loss %.

sprasad03 · 02-02-09, 07:36 PM

Well to sum up my system, i take consideration a bunch of present stats, power rankings, injuries, b2b and then assign a strength of signficance to each stat as i deem important. i assign my own values and it has been going well for me, i just used my philosophy of team sports as i play currently d1-aa fball. Its not mathematically complicated but it seems to be working yes i understand you need long term proof but its working now which is all that matters to me. I have been doing what you said picking value money lines or teams close to < 3 spread bc i feel that most teams lose by more than 4 or more to the winning team bc they foul at the end. but anyways thanks for your help

for clarifications its not always the big money lines, sometimes it is like phx was a SU winner for me its like -1000 u know, but im workin with it sometime i have the underdog winning su so u never know :-)

G's pks · 02-02-09, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by sprasad03

Well to sum up my system, i take consideration a bunch of present stats, power rankings, injuries, b2b and then assign a strength of signficance to each stat as i deem important. i assign my own values and it has been going well for me, i just used my philosophy of team sports as i play currently d1-aa fball. Its not mathematically complicated but it seems to be working yes i understand you need long term proof but its working now which is all that matters to me. I have been doing what you said picking value money lines or teams close to < 3 spread bc i feel that most teams lose by more than 4 or more to the winning team bc they foul at the end. but anyways thanks for your help

for clarifications its not always the big money lines, sometimes it is like phx was a SU winner for me its like -1000 u know, but im workin with it sometime i have the underdog winning su so u never know :-)

Start posting your picks...

curious · 02-02-09, 07:45 PM

Originally posted by G's pks

Start posting your picks...

In a separate thread please.

alittlemoresound · 02-02-09, 09:36 PM

riding lakers and hornets 2nd half

steelers killed %20 of my bankroll

how would you get 5 big ones back ?

what was dallas ML tonight ?

curious · 02-02-09, 09:39 PM

Originally posted by alittlemoresound

riding lakers and hornets 2nd half

steelers killed %20 of my bankroll

how would you get 5 big ones back ?

Haven't you learned to take favs on the money line as much as you have been in my threads?

Well, if you know how to cap then I would find plays that are as close to a sure thing as there can be in gambling and I would focus on them and know EVERYTHING about those games and use Kelly criterion to make sure I am not overbetting my bank.

If you don't know how to cap then I would find the 3 or 4 best cappers on SBR and tail them. Make sure they are in different sports. That way if one of them goes cold the others probably won't be.

curious · 02-03-09, 08:44 AM

16-8

Not great, but not too bad. First decent Quarters results in a few days.

G's pks · 02-03-09, 10:03 AM

Originally posted by curious

Haven't you learned to take favs on the money line as much as you have been in my threads?

Well, if you know how to cap then I would find plays that are as close to a sure thing as there can be in gambling and I would focus on them and know EVERYTHING about those games and use Kelly criterion to make sure I am not overbetting my bank.

If you don't know how to cap then I would find the 3 or 4 best cappers on SBR and tail them. Make sure they are in different sports. That way if one of them goes cold the others probably won't be.

Look at this very solid advice free of charge! Yes...the ML...thats how I had Pit -232. I went ML on pit throughout the playoffs.

Oh and I see the clippers continued their bad habits!

LA Clippers95Miami119