When trends contradict each other, how do you know which to use?

[curious]

Okay, so I looked at that Boston line -17 and I thought there was something fishy about it. So, I looked at every trend I could find.

Boston 7-1 ATS, 8-0 SU after snapping the 4 game losing streak.
Sacramento 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS over the same period.

So, this says Boston is the play.

HOWEVER, I also saw this:
Sacramento as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points 6-1

So, when two trends contradict each other, how do you know which one to use?

[shock11]

A dumb question doesn't deserve a good answer...

Enough said....

[Devon]

Fade the game, is what I'd do when they contradict each other.

shock11, grow up sooky lalala...

[seanjohn007]

damn shock he's just asking a question. i agree with Devon though. unless i find other stats i like more.

seanjohn007

[curious]

damn shock he's just asking a question. i agree with Devon though. unless i find other stats i like more.

seanjohn007

Surely some stats are more predictive than others?

I have always believed that trend over the recent past was the most predictive stat.

So, if I asked the question a different way, it would be, which of these trends is has the best predictive value:
1. ATS recent history (last 5, last 10, etc)?
2. ATS at a given spread?
3. ATS home and playing at home (or away and playing away)?

There others obviously, but for sake of example I think 3 is enough.

[seanjohn007]

i completely agree with you that some are more predictive than others.

1.i personally think that home court is very important because we all no that some teams play much harder at home than on the road. for instance, although cleveland is a great team there undefeated at home. and utah is a completely different team at home, and their record shows it. it seems like when a team is very good at home it will remain that way the whole season, which is what you want when your predicting the outcome of something.

2.i know you believe strongly in the hot/cold match-ups because it shows you who is playing better at the time, which i completely agree with also. the only problem i've found with them, which i'm sure you have noticed also is that once in a while a team will have a very tough stretch in their schedule. and this stretch makes it look like they are playing worse than they actually are. so although i haven't run into this problem very often, it is their.

3.as far as their record ATS at a given spread goes...i think it can be helpful because it shows how a team plays when their favored or dogged by a certain amount, but you'd have to look into it more. for example in the Sacramento record your talking about , you mite have to take a look at those games to see what happened. but to be honest with two strong trends like the ones your talking about, i'd probably just not play the game.

i wrote the trends in order of which i thought had the best predictive value.

seanjohn007

[Karayilan9]

Ride the Boston train untill it crashes off the tracks, I've been riding them 3 or 4 games, 1st QTR, 1st Half, and game with Points, they've won so much now that it wouldn't matter if they lost and it looks like they could even cover this 17 point mega line.

Next they got the Pistons, let's hope this train keeps rolling

[ringemup]

Ride the Boston train untill it crashes off the tracks, I've been riding them 3 or 4 games, 1st QTR, 1st Half, and game with Points, they've won so much now that it wouldn't matter if they lost and it looks like they could even cover this 17 point mega line.

Next they got the Pistons, let's hope this train keeps rolling

I live in boston, the celtics are GREEN as they come, money-making machines, they jus dont stop covering its ridiculous.

[NBA Hero]

better go for what you feel. either pick one of the team or play some other team. that would be better so you will not swear on some data that serves you well most times, and you definitely wont like following somebody without a good reason