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Ok guys, Vancouver got id done tonight which brings the series to 4-0 (3 wins on bet A, and 1 on bet B) no hockey until Friday which will be bet C for NJ. After that here s what we have left:
Ana: 3/31-4/4
Pitt: 4/4-4/7
Wash:4/7-4/11
The Jazz also got it done (personal play that i posted for everyone). 2 A bets tomorrow:
Milwaukee +6
and guess who's back? You got it!!!!!!!!!!! The Clips start the back end of a 6-game road trip, already booked them at +10. I'll post another pick later today, gotta pull an all-nigther because I got a Math test tomorrow morning.
Good luck.Comment -
Also the Lakers have 3 more games on the road (all against the East), starting on Thursday @ Detroit. Are we going to play that series? What do you guys think? I'm probably going to pass because the game @ Detroit would have been game C of the series that we won @ Chicago as an A bet. Only 5 games on that road trip so we can't play 2 series.Comment -
Whats up with the hockey betting? I thought I saw you had negative results when backtracking. Is this true or is it changed?Comment -
It's kind of a tough call on the Lakers this series.
The start to play 3 against the eastern conference on Mar. 26 against DET so that makes them a JM play.
But then they start the second 3 games of a road trip on Mar. 27 against NJ which makes them a cartytay system play that day.
We don't want to bet them every night (or do we?) but it seems we might have to under one system or the other.
Also, good job tonight Canucks. As cheme said, NHL system is 4-0 so far in this late-season test run.
NJ is a C bet on Friday, let's hope Brodeur is back on track that night.Comment -
Well done everyone.
You know I keep winning in this thread. But I keep getting distracted by other people's threads and playing those picks aswell. And those other picks mostly keep losing for me, lol. The picks from this thread are the most profitable for me, from the 3 systems we have going here JM NBA, Cartytay NBA and mcbain/cheme82's NHL. (4 including the upcoming MLB I suppose).
All the bets I make outside of these systems do not come through in the long run, but it's the wins from these systems which keep my account balances a the same level. I think I'll just try to control myself from now on, have discipline and stick to what I know is a winning formula.
Oh, and who else got the horse racing system sent to you? Perhaps we could set up a new thread in the relevant section to give the daily picks. I haven't read through it yet though.Comment -
Hey guys - not a bad idea to set up a new thread for the horse racing. Though im still not the best at all this stuff yet.
I have only paper played it so far but it has certainly come out profitable for the times that i have. Though im in Australia so for me it would be Australian picks. If anyone has any questions about it just ask and ill answer as best i canComment -
Well, if each person from each country shared his picks, we might have quite a few picks each per dayComment -
anyway, off to work - I'm late!...Comment -
Today A ebts :
Milwakee
ClippersComment -
Anyone else too scared the bet the Clippers again??? LOLComment -
Is that Clippers "C" Bet From JM system? I remember on 20th. Clippers were a play, personally I'm done with his system for the yr. almost no gmes anyway, and it did work out well, Anyone ever followed His Basesball System, any good?? TYComment -
think the Clippers is a Cartytay pick, i havent even looked to check that yet. Only JM pick left is Lakers i think.
I have his MLB system and will be waiting for the picks but i have only just purchased it so never used it yetComment -
Ok guys, here is the pick I promised. I'm playing St. Mary's tonight when they go on the road to San Diego State with a trip to New York to play Baylor in the semis of the NIT is on the line.
St. Mary's has been inconsistent on the road, 0-5 ATS the last 5 on the road. San Diego State is 4-0 on their last 4 out of conference games, Vegas also factored the revenge factor and that is the only reason why the Aztecs are actually favored tonight. Truth is, St. Mary's owns the Aztecs who are 1-4 SU and 1-1-3 ATS againts the Gaels since they started playing them pretty much every year back in 2003.
Pattrick Mills is back after missing over a month with 2 broken bones on his right hand back in January against Gonzaga. He is leading the team in minutes, points, and assists in the NIT since his return. This guy is hungry, and he knows that if he hadn't gone down with that injury his team would have made it to the big dance. Well that chance is gone but he is determined to do the 2nd. best thing, and that is to carry his team to the NIT championship game on April 2nd.
San Diego State's Lorenzo Wade on the other hand has decreased in production in the tournament, averaging just over 13 ppg. while Mills is averaging over 21 ppg. to go with almost 5 apg. The other thing I like tonight is the fact that we have a team that depends on a guard vs. a team that depends on a forward. Mills is the motor that makes St. Mary's go, he creates for himself and other players so even if his shot is off, he can do damage in other ways. Wade depends on getting the rock delivered to him in order to do some damage and like I mentioned before, his numbers have actually dipped a little during the tournament.
I think they win it outright, but I'll take +4 (-115) as that should be plenty in a game that might come down to the last possession.
Good luck.Comment -
Cheme82 - so thats a +4 play on St Mary's correct? How much you putting on the line?Comment -
Ok guys for those that have received my horse racing package, a new forum has been started specifically for that. It is open to suggestions and comments from all who want to contribute. Please check it out and add any suggestions that you feel are appropriate and we may be able to get a good thing happening.
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Stu and Jareel....
I've played around a little with the horses but I'm having trouble with it. I can generally find a couple horses that qualify as "hot favorites" every day. The problem is by the time they are in the gate, they are such heavy favorites that you can't get the dividend you need. Today I got frustrated with tiny payouts on a $5 bet, so I played two in a row at $20 each to show. According to his system, you should be getting like .5 to 1 on a show bet with these horses. I won $2 and $1 respectively on these two $20 bets. Both horses ran away with the race but I didn't bet the win, because if your horse places 2nd, your show wager is only going to cover like 1/10th of your win wager that you lose! I've been burned splitting the bet like he says you can do when my horse places or shows and I lose 4/5 of my bet.
I just don't understand how you can get a horse that's such a favorite as to be a 90+% to show that'll run at odds that you need to make money in his system. He says (paraphrasing) you want a horse that's around a 7/5 to a 5/2 while the next best horse is a 7/2 to a 9/2. Well the rare times you can get that opportunity, the show pool is sooooo heavy in the favorites column that your payout isn't worth the risk. He talks about starting with $5 bets. Can't tell you how many $5 bets I've made with a $.50 payout. Woo hoo. Now I'm supposed to bet $5.50? Yawn. By the time I get to a $10 bet I'm going to have a horse fade down the stretch or get blocked or just not show. I don't know how he gets $.50 on the dollar for these "hot favorites". I just can't see it.Comment -
By the way for dumb people like me who are total newbs to forums, how do a link my forums so that i dont have to search through the list everytime i log into sbr???Comment -
jellobiafra - from what i understand he is making most of his plays in the Hong Kong market so maybe that is faring better for him.
If you just apply the intial filters he suggests where his strike rate is not quite as high, i am finding that i can get horse that are paying about $1.30 - to $1.50 for a place, and these are the ones that seem to bring in the profit. I agree that it is hard to make a profit on super hot favorites.
Is there any place where you can make a bet where the odds are secured? Or does the odds and tote keep moving until just before the race??Comment -
I'm placing bets online. They're all tote odds. The thing you have to realize is that a place (show here in the US) bet payout is only calculated on the place pool. You basically add all the place bets, divide them by 3 and then divide that by your horses amount. I'm telling you once these huge favorites go off, over half the show pool is your horse's wager. I'm getting around a 10% payout on these show wagers.
The thing is, you're not supposed to bet them UNLESS they are at least 2.5 times the favorite of the next lowest odds horse. When you see a horse that is around a 7/5 or so going into the last 5 minutes of betting, and the next closest horse is a 7/2 or above.... you see the favorite get hammered so hard he usually ends up at BEST a 1:1. It usually goes under to as low as a 1/5. And everybody and their mother is laying money on that horse to show.Comment -
You doing this as a straight up bet or a JM style ?Comment -
jellobiafra - yeah i see your point. I have had similar things happen but have had some success.
Give me a day to contact the guy and ill see what sort of response i can getComment -
Well, he addresses it a little bit in his FAQ section. He says he bets through bookies with fixed odds. That's crazy. Good for him I guess. If I could get fixed odds on horse racing, I could make a killing too. Just wait until 2 minutes to post and lay $1000 to show on that hot favorite that opened at 3/1 and is going off at 3/5. How hard is that? He says something about waiting until the race is about to go off to bet so you can truly gauge a hot favorite. Is he waiting and still getting fixed odds from an hour before?? I don't know how a bookie could stay in business doing that.Comment -
We did backtest for this season, 07-08, and 06-07. Positive for the last 2 years. Go back a few pages, we posted the results there.Comment -
Now is a good time to take a break from all this.What you don't play is just as important as to, what you do play.
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Special Ed. Bob
"The Weirdest Comedian of all time"Attached FilesComment -
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Man that was a nice little run Milwaukee went in the last quarter. The second quarter killed them though. Funny thing is if Milwaukee makes that 3 with time running out we actually win the bet. The bad thing is the one that shot it was Mbah a Moute, only the 4th. 3-point attempt of his career, needless to say he has missed all 4
The Clips look like they are going to pay us back for making us suffer so much on the first series as they might even steal one in NY.Comment -
****, the Clips are going to OT. Harrington got another technical after a dunk just like last time they played them, that time they actually lost the game in OT. I gotta say though, tonight's was a bullshit call, he didn't hang on the rim that long, he did pull himself up a little though, anyway OT it is!Comment -
The Clips win it outright!!!!!!!! Most people thought Milwaukee was the better bet, goes to show us the system works in mysterious ways.
Only one sytem play tomorrow, Phoenix at Portland.Comment
