MLK Day Hoops

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 08:32 AM

Toronto @ Atlanta

The Raptors are injured and playing badly and are off yet another close loss yesterday to the Suns. The Hawks have injuries and are playing badly and are just 2-6 since the New Year started. Because of that this game is a complete pass for me. I watched the Raptors and they have some solid young talent that scored and looked great yesterday but they look to have just ten bodies if O'neal plays and in back to back games that is not a good thing. The Hawks are playing badly and could have Horford and Williams out for today and that could hurt rebounding and scoring. I just can't back a favorite with those kinds of problems. Trend wise both teams are in trouble. Toronto has lost four straight overall and five of six on the road. Atlanta has five of its last six while failing to cash six of eight. This is a pass for me.

Lean: Raptors +5.5 and over 198

Denver @ Houston

The Rockets are somehow winning without two of the best players as Artest and T-Mac are both sidelined. Yao Ming is picking up the slack and came up with a career type game in te last time out. Today the face Denver coming in off the longest home stand of the season. This game has all the makings of a shootout with Denver always pushing the tempo and Houston getting points from some lesser known players that can easily get caught up in the running game. That is bad news for the Rockets because in a home game where where the total is between 195 and 199.5 points they are just 2-8 ATS. The Nuggets have won three of their last four on the highway.Houston has failed in nine of its last 13 overall ATS, including five of seven at home. This leads to a play on Denver and that looks good for the over too. Denver has flown over in nine of its last dozen duels and the Rockets have followed suit in six of seven versus Northwest Division teams and in 10 of 14 against conference competition.

Plays: Denver +3 and Over 194

JT

Sneaks

cheesehead004 · 01-19-09, 08:52 AM

I have CHI, SAS, and ATL. Good luck I guess? haha

NBA Hero · 01-19-09, 08:54 AM

on denver. hous are a joke at times. chauncey wil lead the way

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 09:01 AM

Indiana @ New Orleans

The Hornets return home after beating the Pistons to salvage a road trip and erase a painful performance against the Cavs. The Pacers hit the road after doing well to include winning three straight. This game is a buzz saw waiting to happen in my eyes. I will pass on the total because I believe if you like the Hornets in this game the under is a more attractive play and if you like the Pacers the over is a more attractive game but it could be a toss up either way. With this in mind I am going to pass on the total and work on the side. The Hornets are relieved to get home and play some of theri best basketball there as they are 12-5 this year. Hornets are 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Central. The Pacers are a much different team on the road and it will show today in the Big easy.

Play: Hornets -8
Lean: Under 209 (Under is 17-5-1 in the last 23 meetings)

Minnesota @ Clippers

The big thing in this game is Camby who is listed as day to day and hurt himself in the last game out and is the reason this line jumped from 3 to 5. I don't expect him to play in this game today and that should be good news for the red hot T-wolves. The truth of the matter is I don't know if I trust Kevin Mcchale as coach just yet. I have watched a few of these games and have seen some minor rookie mistakes that could cost his team in a close games. The Wolves are on a roll and have revenge in this game. This line is set to just about right and it may be asking a bit much to have the Wolves as a road chalk. Love is a rebounding machine and as a whole the Wolves are scoring in bunces. Minnesota has won six of its last seven and cashed at a 9-2-1 clip since Dec. 23. The Wolves have also covered six straight on the road and seven in a row against conference foes.The Clippers are 9-25 ATS at home and 5-21 ATS when playing on Monday. Taking a road favorite today in this spot.

Play: Wolves -5 (no play at -7)
Lean: Under 194

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 09:03 AM

Cheesehead,

The Raptors are a lean so I am not playing them but yep it looks like we are on opposite sides of the coin today!!

NBA Hero ,

I agree that Houston is inconsistent at times and since Ming is off a perfect game I am looking for the downside of the Rockets today. I found this trend that I like too:the nuggets are 12-0 ATS since Feb 2007 during the regular season when facing a team they lost to in the previous same season match up.

JT

Sneaks

bobbyfk · 01-19-09, 09:11 AM

where did you find NO-8? I see it mostly at 7 with one or two books at 7-1/2

my locked picks for the day:
NYK-2.5
BOS-8

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 09:36 AM

Washington @ Golden St.

Golden St is 5 point favorites at home? It seems weird for a team this bad to be favorites at home against anyone considering when they do win at home its by an average of .07. Golden St does have revenge in this game but they are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite and 1-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. The Wizards have dropped 10 of their last 11 on the road. They have covered six of their last seven against Western outfits. In a game that has the potential to be this ugly its best to pass.

Lean: Wizards +5 and Under 217

Pistons @ Grizzlies
No line yet for this one but if it comes out and I have time later or anyone wants a writeup on it I will post it.

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 09:37 AM

Bobbyfk,

Your right I began to shop around and found a few 7's that I will get on before game time!

JT

Sneaks

diogee · 01-19-09, 09:44 AM

All the best JT. Always like your insight...never a bad thing being on the same side.

Hornets worry me a bit with the 2 pt drop but once it dropped down to 7 I had no choice but to play it.

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 09:58 AM

Phoenix @ Boston

Boston has rebounded after an ugly losing stretch of 2-7 to get solid wins over Toronto and New Jersey twice, but today they step it up a notch when they face the Suns in Boston. The Suns played yesterday and are still trying to adjust to the new style of basketball that Porter is putting in. They are burning bankrolls in the meantime and are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall. The Celtics have covered 10 of 13 at home and nine of 12 against Pacific Division opponents. To prove they are back to playing the way the should a win against the Suns would go along way. Suns are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games. The Suns seemed to fade in the last quarters against Toronto which could mean they are showing signs of getting tired on the east coast trip. Celtics are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600 and that shows that they get up for home games against good talent.

Play: Boston -8
Lean: OVER 203

Milwaukee @ Portland

I am going to go straight for the total here and pass on the side. The Blazers are a good club but coming off a road trip where they looked tired and Roy did not look like he was 100%. The Bucks have alternated wins and losses forever and after a loss against the Clippers they may get the win but that is not something I could bet on.Five straight shootouts in Oregon have bounced over, as have nine of 10 series scrapes overall. Milwaukee has zipped over in eight of its last nine contests.Over is 10-3 in Bucks last 13 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 and 12-5 in Bucks last 17 vs. NBA Northwest.

Play: Over 193.5
Lean: Milwaukee +6

JT

Sneaks

bobbyfk · 01-19-09, 10:00 AM

DEN VS.HOU- to note

The home team has won all six games between these clubs -- three for each -- since the start of last season.

going with HOU-3 110

bobbyfk · 01-19-09, 10:01 AM

LOVE Boston at home minus the 8, thats going to be my big play of the day, hopefully they can pull it out

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 10:21 AM

Diogee,

Glad to see we are on the same side. Good Luck today my friend!

Bobbyfk,

I think the Celtics win and cover against a tired Suns team. I saw that stat on the Rockets but sticking with Denver here.

Best of luck!

back with the last game..

JT

Sneaks

bobbyfk · 01-19-09, 10:36 AM

DAL VS.Phi opened, i got it at 5 at sportbet.com but shop, you can get 4 1/2 at some books

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 10:41 AM

Cleveland @ Lakers

Its only fitting that the best game of the day is the last one as the Cavs travel to LA to face Kobe and the Lakers. This game lines up as a pick 'em for me so the 5 points seems like a gift to me. Everywhere I look the trends favor the Cavs to yet I feel like the lakers could be the play here. The Cavs are traveling and the Lakers are off a tough loss and Phil jackson had to send out the rally cry to get the troop sready for this game. I think the defense of Delonte West will be missed more than people think and without size down low the Lakers should have the edge in this game. homecooking always helps in big games like this and I will take the lakers. This game should be defensive effort and the laker spull away late!

Play: Lakers -5
Play: Under 204

JT

Sneaks

bobbyfk · 01-19-09, 10:49 AM

have to go with Phi, i was able to get it at 4 1/2, they have been HOT winning 7 in a row while Dal is riding a 4 game losing streak

minet123 · 01-19-09, 11:13 AM

I took sixers -4- at canbet

jesron1269 · 01-19-09, 11:51 AM

I also took Philly but bought the half point down to -3. Notice this line keeps moving down and the public is overwhelming in favor of Dallas. Lets hope that the public is wrong. I also have Knicks -2. BOL!

PittChicGambles · 01-19-09, 11:57 AM

hey guys...i am a female who loves to gamble on sports...I know my sports pretty well. Currently I have a 3500 bankroll and would like any expertise you guys can offer me on the nba games today. I was thinking of going with the rockets for first half -1/2...I also liked the mavericks on the mL..what do you think?

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 12:20 PM

Dallas @ Philly

Philly has been playing really well winning four straight and Dallas has struggled on the road losing four straight. I am curious how they will try to get Brand to fit into the mold today. If he is able to come back and play today then he would be coming off the bench and it would be hard for them to play fast paced. I am going to pass on the side and just play the total. With an up and down tempo playing right into the Dallas game plan look for this one to go over the total.

Lean: Philly -4 (w/o Brand)
Play: Over 200

PittChicGambles,
Good luck on your plays I am on Denver on the game over Houston but no play for the first half and passing on the side id the above game.

JT

Sneaks

PittChicGambles · 01-19-09, 12:22 PM

thanks jts..what do you think about chicago over 106 first half

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 12:32 PM

My original lean was to the under in this game mainly because the Bulls have had a tough go of things from the offensive side of the floor. But the Bulls have been on the high side in six of eight on the road and they have zipped 'over' at an 11-5-1 rate against Atlantic inhabitants. That of course is talking about the game and not the first half, but when you look at halves its similar in road games for the Bulls.

they allow an average of 53 points on the road to the home teams they are playing and the Knicks average 55.1 at home and allow 54.8 to teams while playing at home. So while these numbers could bear further investigation to determine effect of opponent I would side with you on that play. Best of Luck,

JT

Sneaks

PittChicGambles · 01-19-09, 12:53 PM

just submitted my pick...first half bets- two team parlay...dallas +2 and chi game over 105.5...

MicGan · 01-19-09, 12:56 PM

Originally posted by jtsneaks

Washington @ Golden St.

Golden St is 5 point favorites at home? It seems weird for a team this bad to be favorites at home against anyone considering when they do win at home its by an average of .07. Golden St does have revenge in this game but they are just 2-8 ATS as a favorite and 1-6 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. The Wizards have dropped 10 of their last 11 on the road. They have covered six of their last seven against Western outfits. In a game that has the potential to be this ugly its best to pass.

Lean: Wizards +5 and Under 217

Pistons @ Grizzlies
No line yet for this one but if it comes out and I have time later or anyone wants a writeup on it I will post it.

JT

Sneaks

Isnt Monte Ellis set to return and play GSW? I like over and cover.

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 03:44 PM

Isnt Monte Ellis set to return and play GSW?

Warriors update: Monta Ellis will not be playing, but it's a big day for him nonetheless. Ellis' agent, Jeff Fried, said he is scheduled to meet with team officials today, and though neither Fried nor the Warriors are publicly going into specifics, it's likely they'll be looking to close the book on Ellis' punishment for his August moped accident. After all, Ellis has been practicing for more than a week now, and the Warriors already were taking promotional shots of him in uniform just a few days ago

JT

Sneaks

jtsneaks · 01-19-09, 07:41 PM

Record Update:
Plays:5-2
Leans: 4-4-1

I guess that's why I don't play the Leans.

JT

Sneaks

poker_dummy101 · 10-30-09, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by bobbyfk

where did you find NO-8? I see it mostly at 7 with one or two books at 7-1/2

my locked picks for the day:
NYK-2.5
BOS-8

kid had locks first day here. true gambla