Leans for Sunday 1/11/09

[showtime2000]

Hey Africanroller, any NHL for ya tonight bud?

so far Going with San Antonio(CK), Over STL/EDM tonight.

[Dexter]

Is Spurs still a PC play? Any reason to be worried with the line movement, -3 last night to -1.5 currently?

the line is a solid 3 everywhere...

[showtime2000]

Th SAN antonio line is moving in reverse mode. 80% are on Orlando yet the line moves in SA direction. Looks like the books are expecting a SA blowout tonight and are getting as much $$$$$$$ on Orlando as they can.

[africanroller]

ST, I am just waiting to see how my early games are doing.

[nonsense48]

they melted by my spread. no worries tho. it's just 1 game of many. kinda glad to get the loser out of the way.

[jaymac82980]

Atlanta isn't playing up to speed with Philly, hopefully the half time speech will work and they will decide to WIN at home

[africanroller]

Anyone liking Atlanta -5 second half. They seem to always come back in the second half but I am not watching the game. Any advice?

[cocknocker]

I'm leaving Atlanta alone, because they won't cover in this game. Time to take that small loss as a man.

[johnnyP]

The Orlando VS San Antonio spread appears to be the same on all books:

http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/nba/game/pointspread.html

[peterpan19]

cant take atl -5.5 at the half, even it is tempting at +115
I just have to wait for the whole game
ck: well there is still a small chance, if they come out on fire after the half and it is a home game, so who knows

[djpremier36]

I played atlanta at -3 for the third q...time for jj and smoove to take over

[ram1502]

I like Atlanta a lot...

Anyone liking Atlanta -5 second half. They seem to always come back in the second half but I am not watching the game. Any advice?

African, I am watching the game and the Hawks just look a little rusty. With Philly playing their 4th game in 6 days, they have to be just a little tired even though they are a very young team. The first half, IMO, was a microcosm of the 76ers recent success in their 3 game winning streak against the shorthanded rockets, the tired bucks, and the inferior bobcats. The Hawks are a very good team and should get the job done in the 2nd half, covering -5 easily in my humble opinion. I'm definitely taking them. Good luck.

[showtime2000]

Liking Pittsburgh this afternoon, on it but it worries me that BIGMoney is on the opposite. But in CK I Trust!

[killersweet]

Oh man, raptors almost screwed up my day. Glad it ended by 6. Thank You bosh for missing that easy lay up!
Now lets hope PC play comes thru. Then we are set for today.

As for the football game, Steelers are looking good.

[Dexter]

giants are cooked - its uncanny how you get off of bad bets in football. i remember that ndame/hawaii game as well.

[africanroller]

I almost just got sick, LSU got it to within 2 with less then a minute but missed key shots. Alabama cashes the ticket but Wis/Pudue go under. The afternoon is over and thanks to the Celtics meltdown I am dead even

[shoebox]

giants are cooked - its uncanny how you get off of bad bets in football. i remember that ndame/hawaii game as well.

Dex, hes got the book from back to the future!!!

[Dfjay9]

3-0 on the day

Celts
Bama
Michigan

Ridin Pitt -7 later and then the PC play and maybe another game if I get enough I'll sprinkle something on em.

[jaymac82980]

grey's sports almanac

[africanroller]

DF, What do you think about Niagra -7.5 over Marist? Also liking SD over Santa Clara. Let me know before I waste more money on NCAA hoops

[nonsense48]

locked as follows: pitts.-7 for just a buck and 2 dimes on CK's PC play on S.A.-3 GOOD LUCK EVERYONE.

[Dfjay9]

I was just about to post that I'm adding SD +1 to my card. I love Niagara but I bet them too much and I havent had time to research this game. I've been busy all day which is why I havent written up my picks nor posted much. But:

Adding SD +1 for 1 unit. SD is hot and SC is not. Simple as that (Well for the most part, there is a little more to it but whatever I don't have the time).

[africanroller]

San Diego 7-2 in last 9 meetings in Santa Clara
Underdog is 4-0 in last 4
Road team is 6-0 in last 6

only problem 64% on public and line has stayed +1

82% of public on Niagra

[africanroller]

Niagra 10-4 ATS last 14
Niagra 10-3 last 13 road games

Marist 3-8-1 ATS last 12 overall

[nonsense48]

giants down in flames

[goingpoor]

I am really thinking about the taking the lakers heavy, any thought? The spread is kind of high, so I was thinking of an orl and lakers teasrer. Oh, as far as my pics starting, sorry about that, I was snowboarding all day and lost track of time.

[MrSink]

So... After Boston play in canada i'm really confused. Well...it isn't funny...i picked up boston with handy -6.5
You know guys, it was over 20 points adventage in the end of 3rd quarter but toronto won last quarter 33:19!!!
Key action... 40 sec left and Chris Bosh grab offensive board and assist to Kapono and he throw from downtown
Congratulations to Boston
Special Thanks to Rondo for great play in last quarter
U sucks!!!!

[The_Kid]

anyone think the pacers and golden state can score 234?

I'd like to think they can but all you need is one bad quarter and the OVER is a goner but I don't know if I could tell myself to take an UNDER in a game with the Warriors and Pacers.

[Dfjay9]

Those arent the stats I looked at Roller, I just got a few minutes, let me tell you what I see:

In their last 5, SD is 4-1 SU and 3-1 ATS. Santa Clara is 2-3 SU and 2-2 ATS. SD beat one nobody and Santa clara got handed their asses like a nobody in one of the last 5. In that period SD is shooting 52% and winning by an average of 11 pts (including that loss). SC is shooting a very respectable 47% and is losing by .2 per game (3 losses, 2 wins). SD is 5-3 ATS on the road and SC is 2-2 ATS at home. The SOS for SD is 70.4 and for SC it is 68.1

I try to look at how a team is playing at the given moment not in the past 3 years and what not as thats not relevent as the players are different and sometimes the coaches. This is a small play for me, but it is still a play.

[Dexter]

no worries goingpoor - i'm sure you see the point. welcome...

[showtime2000]

again, let me ask the question? No one likes the Over in the SD/Pit game? everyone is on the Under yet so far it looks like all 3 games this weekend have stayed under. Iknow it's no way to base my judgement BUT, is it worth taking a shot at the Over.

[BigMoneyMan]

Eagles ML looking good also. Let get the Steelers game!!

[africanroller]

DF, I put past and present together to make a play. I see the same as you for this year and past trends push me over the top on SD. If the past trends are complete opposite of present trends then I dont play it.

It works in the pros but you may be right in College Hoops. That may be why I am not doing well this year

[showtime2000]

Hey BigMoney you still on the Chargers or steelers?

[cocknocker]

Man once again, my intuition paid off. I didn't feel all the way good about the Giants, and laid off of it. I do however think that the Cardinals will avenge the PC Play made against them earlier this year. It is quite possible that the Cards will meet the Ravens in the Super Bowl. I sincerely feel that the Ravens have the best team left in the tournament! Ravens all the way bay-bee!

On another note, the Hawks are stinking up the joint today, and that is miraculous given their home record and the up an down synergy of the Sixers...They have to get their mojo back!