How can I explain to an idiot coworker that Vegas does their homework and knows

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  • Jgjk
    SBR Sharp
    • 02-21-13
    • 299

    #1
    How can I explain to an idiot coworker that Vegas does their homework and knows
    the trends, stats, etc. He says Vegas knows nothing about the nba and that "at the end of the day you cant say whos better or not because they need to put the ball in the basket. Anyone can win"

    its hard to explain that theres blind bets and educated bets....
  • Seto
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-16-11
    • 12906

    #2
    Introduce him to Seaweed.
    Comment
    • hockey216
      SBR MVP
      • 08-20-08
      • 4583

      #3
      people that make lines use statistical models. they know their stuff. over 95% of players lose long term, so obviously vegas is smart because nobody can beat them. they use good math models.
      Comment
      • thunderous
        SBR MVP
        • 06-05-12
        • 1870

        #4
        Originally posted by hockey216
        people that make lines use statistical models. they know their stuff. over 95% of players lose long term, so obviously vegas is smart because nobody can beat them. they use good math models.
        Disagree. Take away the VIG and there will be 100's of cappers that can beat the books and I am not saying I am one of them but there are smart numbers people (maybe a little lucky too) who can do it. Why do you think they have -110 lines and not -102 lines?
        Comment
        • TwoWays
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-24-10
          • 13145

          #5
          blah, blah, blah. Just one word - fixed.
          Comment
          • Shazzadude
            SBR Sharp
            • 11-28-12
            • 443

            #6
            Offer to become his bookie.
            Comment
            • mysterio619
              SBR Sharp
              • 05-28-12
              • 452

              #7
              Originally posted by TwoWays
              blah, blah, blah. Just one word - fixed.
              TwoWays I need you to go 1 way and that's the fuk out of this forum
              Comment
              • Reno_Thor
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 04-12-12
                • 525

                #8
                Show him/her a picture of the strip and explain it was built because they know their shit. Granted sports books account for a small percentage of casino winnings (see "vig" comment) they still win more than they lose even on the NBA. Those that set the lines know its more about betters perception; guaranteeing they take home the 10% "vig" than beating the "informed" better. As you may have noticed the "experts" here on the SBR forums can make (sometimes) valid arguments for betting a game either way. At the end of the day they do have to put the ball in the basket and randomness and chaos play a huge factor but they get paid either way over the long haul.
                Comment
                • easyliving
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 06-25-12
                  • 8876

                  #9
                  if he thinks vegas doesn't know shit tell him to start betting and taking full advantage of those wrong lines.
                  Comment
                  • TwoWays
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 03-24-10
                    • 13145

                    #10
                    Originally posted by mysterio619
                    TwoWays I need you to go 1 way and that's the fuk out of this forum
                    I have senority over you. GTFO!
                    Comment
                    • chefko
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 01-06-12
                      • 122

                      #11
                      i know a guy who is setting lines at pinnacle and he admitted that he has no cluy about actual player strenght and rumors. he says he is waiting for opening lines from euro bookies and then sets up low limit bets until a sharp line is created. then he opens up the limits so that he gets approx. equal value on both sides.
                      through the vig he earns his money.

                      simple as that.
                      Comment
                      • mysterio619
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 05-28-12
                        • 452

                        #12
                        Originally posted by TwoWays
                        I have senority over you. GTFO!
                        "Seniority" LOL It's only an online forum dikhead
                        Comment
                        • TwoWays
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-24-10
                          • 13145

                          #13
                          Originally posted by mysterio619
                          "Seniority" LOL It's only an online forum dikhead
                          you took that serious. what a doofus. go rub one out before cuming back online.
                          Comment
                          • BigDofBA
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 09-30-09
                            • 19313

                            #14
                            Originally posted by easyliving
                            if he thinks vegas doesn't know shit tell him to start betting and taking full advantage of those wrong lines.
                            It's really that simple. If it's so easy, start betting money buddy....
                            Comment
                            • JayLA
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-11-12
                              • 7806

                              #15
                              Originally posted by chefko
                              i know a guy who is setting lines at pinnacle and he admitted that he has no cluy about actual player strenght and rumors. he says he is waiting for opening lines from euro bookies and then sets up low limit bets until a sharp line is created. then he opens up the limits so that he gets approx. equal value on both sides.
                              through the vig he earns his money.

                              simple as that.
                              Comment
                              • Hadley13
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 03-03-13
                                • 125

                                #16
                                They're smart because if they wernt they wouldn't be in business!
                                Comment
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